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Ulf Bergström, Göran Sundblad, Anna-Leena Downie, Martin Snickars, Christoffer Boström and Mats Lindegarth Evaluating eutrophication management scenarios in the Baltic Sea using species distribution modelling Journal of Applied Ecology 50

Version of Record online: 16 APR 2013 | DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12083

We show how ecological effects of environmental policies can be evaluated in an explicit spatial context using species distribution modelling. The model-specific responses to changes in eutrophication status emphasize the importance of using ensemble modelling for exploring how species distributions may respond to alternative management regimes. A pronounced difference in response between species suggests that eutrophication mitigation will have consequences for ecosystem functioning, and thus ecosystem goods and services, by inducing changes in the simple food webs of the Baltic Sea. These model predictions form a basis for spatially explicit cost-benefit estimates under different scenarios, providing valuable information for both decision-makers and the wider society.

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