Raúl García-Valdés, Miguel A. Zavala, Miguel B. Araújo and Drew W. Purves Chasing a moving target: projecting climate change-induced shifts in non-equilibrial tree species distributions Journal of Ecology 101
Our analysis suggests that geographic ranges and abundances of the ten most common tree species in Spain are not in equilibrium with current climatic conditions. We show that given enough time species abundances and geographic ranges would increase without climate change. So, understanding the effects of climate change on species abundances and geographic ranges requires a comparison between a baseline scenario of non-equilibrial range dynamics without climate change and scenarios including climate change forcing.
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