Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Cover image for Vol. 141 Issue 692

Accepted Articles (Accepted, unedited articles published online and citable. The final edited and typeset version of record will appear in future.)

Edited By: Lesley Gray and Douglas J. Parker

Impact Factor: 3.252

ISI Journal Citation Reports © Ranking: 2014: 16/77 (Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences)

Online ISSN: 1477-870X

Associated Title(s): Atmospheric Science Letters, Geoscience Data Journal, International Journal of Climatology, Meteorological Applications, Weather


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  1. Research Articles

    1. Parameter uncertainty in forecast recalibration

      Stefan Siegert, Philip G. Sansom and Robin Williams

      Accepted manuscript online: 24 NOV 2015 11:38PM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2716

    2. Synchronisation of the equatorial QBO by the annual cycle in tropical upwelling in a warming climate

      Kylash Rajendran, Irene M. Moroz, Peter L. Read and Scott M. Osprey

      Accepted manuscript online: 23 NOV 2015 04:25AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2714

    3. An Energy Conserving Restoration Scheme for the Shallow Water Equations

      James Kent, Christiane Jablonowski, John Thuburn and Nigel Wood

      Accepted manuscript online: 20 NOV 2015 04:50AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2713

    4. Improvement of a stochastic backscatter model and application to large-eddy simulation of street canyon flow

      J.J. O'Neill, X.-M. Cai and R. Kinnersley

      Accepted manuscript online: 20 NOV 2015 04:50AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2715

    5. Probing NWP model deficiencies by statistical postprocessing

      Martin H. Rosgaard, Henrik Aa. Nielsen, Torben S. Nielsen and Andrea N. Hahmann

      Accepted manuscript online: 20 NOV 2015 04:17AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2705

    6. Towards ensemble data assimilation for the Environment Canada Regional Ice Prediction System

      Anna Shlyaeva, Mark Buehner, Alain Caya, Jean-François Lemieux, Gregory C. Smith, François Roy, Frédéric Dupont and Tom Carrieres

      Accepted manuscript online: 20 NOV 2015 04:07AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2712

    7. Localization and the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother

      M. Bocquet

      Accepted manuscript online: 20 NOV 2015 03:44AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2711

    8. Large-Eddy Simulation study of the dissipation of radiation fog

      Thierry Bergot

      Accepted manuscript online: 18 NOV 2015 12:20AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2706

    9. Alleviating the bias induced by the linear analysis update with an isopycnal ocean model

      Y. Wang, F. Counillon and L. Bertino

      Accepted manuscript online: 18 NOV 2015 12:16AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2709


      This work is based on the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) which applies the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to a fully-coupled Earth System Model (NorESM) with an isopycnic ocean model (MICOM) for climate predictions. An idealised assimilation framework is first developed to identify the origin of assimilation-created bias in the current version of NorCPM. It is found that the bias in ocean heat and salt contents is introduced by the non-negativity constraint of isopycnic layer thickness values. Second, a new and computationally efficient method (referred to as upscaling) is proposed and tested in the idealised framework. In the upscaling method, layers for which analysis yields negative values are iteratively grouped with neighbouring layers, resulting in a probability density function with a larger mean and smaller standard deviation that prevents the appearance of negative layer thickness values. Analysis increments of the grouped layer are then proportionally distributed, which prevents also empty layers to become filled and vice-versa. The upscaling method acts as moderation in the location where the non-negativity constraint is not satisfied and is as such sub-optimal. The upscaling method shows a reduction of heat and salt contents and sea surface height bias by a factor of ten. A small bias remains due to the update of the ensemble anomalies, but the upscaling method would be unbiased for the heat and salt contents with data assimilation methods that utilise a static analysis error covariance matrix (e.g. EnOI). Finally, the upscaling method is demonstrated in a realistic framework with NorCPM by assimilating sea surface temperature observations. Over a 25-year analysis period, the new method does not impair the predictive skill of the system but corrects the assimilation-created bias in the steric sea level rise and provides an estimation in better agreement with IPCC [Bindoff ~al.(2007)Bindoff, Willebrand, Artale, Cazenave, Gregory, Gulev, Hanawa, Le Quere, Levitus, Nojiri, Shum, Talley and Unnikrishnan, IPCC(2013)].

  2. Special Issue Articles

    1. Evaluation of 3D wind observations inferred from the analysis of airborne and ground-based radars during HyMeX SOP-1

      Olivier Bousquet, Julien Delanoë and Soline Bielli

      Accepted manuscript online: 17 NOV 2015 04:22AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2710

  3. Review Articles

    1. Global energy budgets and “Trenberth diagrams” for the climates of terrestrial and gas giant planets

      P. L. Read, J. Barstow, B. Charnay, S. Chelvaniththilan, P. G. J. Irwin, S. Knight, S. Lebonnois, S. R. Lewis, J. Mendonça and L. Montabone

      Accepted manuscript online: 14 NOV 2015 03:00AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2704

  4. Research Articles

    1. Forecasting radiation fog at climatologically contrasting sites: evaluation of statistical methods and WRF

      C. Román-Cascón, G.J. Steeneveld, C. Yagüe, M. Sastre, J.A. Arrillaga and G. Maqueda

      Accepted manuscript online: 14 NOV 2015 02:21AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2708

    2. Subgrid-scale cloud-radiation feedback for the betts-miller-janjiĆ convection scheme

      Tieh-yong Koh and Ricardo Fonseca

      Accepted manuscript online: 5 NOV 2015 01:58AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2702

  5. Special Issue Articles

  6. Research Articles

    1. Classification and dynamics of tropical clouds by their fractal dimension

      A.R. Batista-Tomás, O. Díaz, A. J. Batista-Leyva and E. Altshuler

      Accepted manuscript online: 29 OCT 2015 04:35AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2699

    2. Impact of seasonal variations in weekday electricity use on urban air temperature observed in Osaka, Japan

      Yukitaka Ohashi, Makoto Suido, Yukihiro Kikegawa, Tomohiko Ihara, Yoshinori Shigeta and Minako Nabeshima

      Accepted manuscript online: 29 OCT 2015 04:33AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2698

  7. Special Issue Articles

    1. A seamless weather-climate multi-model intercomparison on the representation of a high impact weather event in the Western Mediterranean: HyMeX IOP12

      S. Khodayar, G. Fosser, S. Berthou, S. Davolio, P. Drobinski, V. Ducrocq, R. Ferretti, M. Nuret, E. Pichelli, E. Richard and O. Bock

      Accepted manuscript online: 29 OCT 2015 04:33AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2700

  8. Research Articles

    1. Water vapor stratification and dynamical warming behind the sharpness of the Earth's mid-latitude tropopause

      A. P. Ferreira, J. M. Castanheira and L. Gimeno

      Accepted manuscript online: 24 OCT 2015 03:37AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2697

    2. Predictability of the thermally-driven laboratory rotating annulus

      R. M. B. Young and P. L. Read

      Accepted manuscript online: 23 OCT 2015 04:50AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2694

    3. Solar signals in CMIP-5 Simulations: Effects of Atmosphere–ocean Coupling

      S. Misios, D. M. Mitchell, L. J. Gray, K. Tourpali, K. Matthes, L. Hood, H. Schmidt, G. Chiodo, R. Thiéblemont, E. Rozanov and A. Krivolutsky

      Accepted manuscript online: 23 OCT 2015 04:44AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2695

    4. Contrasting structures between the decoupled and coupled states of the stable boundary layer

      Otávio C. Acevedo, Larry Mahrt, Franciano S. Puhales, Felipe D. Costa, Luiz E. Medeiros and Gervásio A. Degrazia

      Accepted manuscript online: 23 OCT 2015 03:59AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2693

    5. The influence of diabatic heating in the South Pacific Convergence Zone on Rossby wave propagation and the mean flow

      Karin van der Wiel, Adrian J. Matthews, Manoj M. Joshi and David P. Stevens

      Accepted manuscript online: 19 OCT 2015 04:19AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2692

    6. Validation of eight atmospheric reanalyses in the Antarctic Peninsula region

      Tiina Nygård, Timo Vihma, Gerit Birnbaum, Jörg Hartmann, John King, Tom Lachlan-Cope, Russell Ladkin, Christof Lüpkes and Alexandra Weiss

      Accepted manuscript online: 19 OCT 2015 04:19AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2691

    7. An algorithm for identifying the initiation of synoptic-scale Rossby waves on PV waveguides

      Matthias Röthlisberger, Olivia Martius and Heini Wernli

      Accepted manuscript online: 14 OCT 2015 09:42PM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2690

  9. Notes and Correspondence

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  10. Research Articles

    1. Explosive Ice Multiplication by Mechanical Break-up in Ice-Ice Collisions: A Dynamical–System Based Study

      Jun-Ichi Yano, Vaughan T. J. Phillips and Vijay Kanawade

      Accepted manuscript online: 7 OCT 2015 01:36AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2687

    2. Land surface initialization strategy for a global reforecast dataset

      M. Boisserie, B. Decharme, L. Descamps and P. Arbogast

      Accepted manuscript online: 7 OCT 2015 01:34AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2688

    3. Clear-sky stable boundary layers with low winds over snow-covered surfaces : Part 2: Process sensitivity

      H. A. M. Sterk, G. J. Steeneveld, F. C. Bosveld, T. Vihma, P. S. Anderson and A. A. M. Holtslag

      Accepted manuscript online: 6 OCT 2015 12:30AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2684

    4. Similarity scaling systems for stably stratified turbulent flows

      Zbigniew Sorbjan

      Accepted manuscript online: 1 OCT 2015 02:38AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2682

    5. Multigrid solvers and multigrid preconditioners for the solution of variational data assimilation problems

      Laurent Debreu, Emilie Neveu, Ehouarn Simon, François-Xavier Le Dimet and Arthur Vidard

      Accepted manuscript online: 29 SEP 2015 04:51AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2676

  11. Special Issue Articles

    1. Topography and rainfall regime impacts on rainfall structure. The case of the HyMeX IOP7a event

      J. Zwiebel, J. Van Baelen, S. Anquetin, Y. Pointin and B. Boudevillain

      Accepted manuscript online: 25 SEP 2015 04:23AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2679

  12. Research Articles

    1. The maximum sustainable heat flux in stably stratified channel flows

      J.M.M. Donda, I.G.S. van Hooijdonk, A.F. Moene, G.J.F. van Heijst, H.J.H. Clercx and B.J.H. van de Wiel

      Accepted manuscript online: 25 SEP 2015 04:21AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2680

    2. Performance of 4D-Var NWP-based nowcasting of precipitation at the Met Office for summer 2012

      Susan P. Ballard, Zhihong Li, David Simonin and Jean-Francois Caron

      Accepted manuscript online: 8 SEP 2015 03:14AM EST | DOI: 10.1002/qj.2665


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