Global Change Biology

Cover image for Vol. 23 Issue 3

Early View (Online Version of Record published before inclusion in an issue)

Edited by: Steve Long

Impact Factor: 8.444

ISI Journal Citation Reports © Ranking: 2015: 1/49 (Biodiversity Conservation); 4/225 (Environmental Sciences); 6/150 (Ecology)

Online ISSN: 1365-2486

Associated Title(s): GCB Bioenergy

VIEW

  1. 1 - 100
  2. 101 - 145
  1. Primary Research Articles

    1. Risky future for Mediterranean forests unless they undergo extreme carbon fertilization

      Guillermo Gea-Izquierdo, Antoine Nicault, Giovanna Battipaglia, Isabel Dorado-Liñán, Emilia Gutiérrez, Montserrat Ribas and Joel Guiot

      Version of Record online: 20 FEB 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13597

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      We analyzed dynamics of forest growth and GPP in relation to climate change and [CO2] across the western Mediterranean. Tree growth was not enhanced in the recent past despite raising [CO2]. Models suggest that forests would mostly resist an increase in temperature below +2 °C. Further warming over that threshold would result in very negative Mediterranean forest performance. A strong fertilization effect in response to exponentially raising [CO2] could counteract the negative effect of a warmer climate, but this effect seems unrealistic.

    2. Emergent climate and CO2 sensitivities of net primary productivity in ecosystem models do not agree with empirical data in temperate forests of eastern North America

      Christine R. Rollinson, Yao Liu, Ann Raiho, David J. P. Moore, Jason McLachlan, Daniel A. Bishop, Alex Dye, Jaclyn H. Matthes, Amy Hessl, Thomas Hickler, Neil Pederson, Benjamin Poulter, Tristan Quaife, Kevin Schaefer, Jörg Steinkamp and Michael C. Dietze

      Version of Record online: 20 FEB 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13626

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      Ecosystem models have widely varying responses to climate and CO2, including temperature responses that are largely opposite to those seen in tree-ring data. Although models show the greatest differences in response to precipitation, compounding differences in CO2 response cause increased ensemble uncertainty in change in net primary productivity (NPP) in the past century relative to the presettlement era.

  2. Research Reviews

    1. Animal pee in the sea: consumer-mediated nutrient dynamics in the world's changing oceans

      Jacob E. Allgeier, Deron E. Burkepile and Craig A. Layman

      Version of Record online: 20 FEB 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13625

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      Humans have drastically altered the abundance of animals in marine ecosystems via exploitation. While the implications for these losses for community structure and ecosystem function are well recognized, the additional implications of these top-down changes for biogeochemical cycles via consumer-mediated nutrient dynamics are often overlooked in coastal marine systems. Here, we review research that underscores the importance of this bottom-up control at local, regional, and global scales in coastal marine ecosystems, and the implications of anthropogenic change to fundamentally alter these processes.

  3. Primary Research Articles

    1. Do invasive alien plants benefit more from global environmental change than native plants?

      Yanjie Liu, Ayub M. O. Oduor, Zhen Zhang, Anthony Manea, Ifeanna M. Tooth, Michelle R. Leishman, Xingliang Xu and Mark van Kleunen

      Version of Record online: 20 FEB 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13579

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      We performed a phylogenetically-controlled meta-analysis to assess whether there is a general pattern of differences in invasive and native plant performance under each component of global environmental change, using a database of studies that reported performance measures for 74 invasive alien plant species and 117 native plant species. We found that elevated temperature and CO2 enrichment increased performance of invasive alien plants more strongly than was the case for native plants. Invasive alien plants tended to also have a slightly stronger positive response to increased N deposition and increased precipitation than native plants, but these differences were not significant. Invasive alien plants tended to have a slightly stronger negative response to decreased precipitation than native plants, although this difference was also not significant.

    2. Diverging shrub and tree growth from the Polar to the Mediterranean biomes across the European continent

      Elena Pellizzari, Jesus Julio Camarero, Antonio Gazol, Elena Granda, Rohan Shetti, Martin Wilmking, Pavel Moiseev, Mario Pividori and Marco Carrer

      Version of Record online: 17 FEB 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13577

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      Climate warming is expected to increase plant productivity and growth especially in temperature-limited environments; however, vegetation dynamics considering concurrently both shrubs and trees are still not well explored. We investigated, with a dendroecological approach, the growth trends and climate sensitivity of Juniperus communis L. and coexisting trees to better understand their responses to recent climate in three contrasting biomes, Polar, Alpine and Mediterranean, across the European continent. Shrub and tree growth forms revealed divergent growth trends in all biomes, with juniper performing better than trees at Mediterranean than at Polar and Alpine sites. The post-1980s decline of tree growth in Mediterranean sites might be induced by drought stress amplified by climate warming and did not affect junipers. This study emphasizes that other climatic drivers, as drought or snow cover, in addition to temperature could play a fundamental role in defining future woody plant growth under the pressure of climate changes.

    3. Effects of three global change drivers on terrestrial C:N:P stoichiometry: a global synthesis

      Kai Yue, Dario A. Fornara, Wanqin Yang, Yan Peng, Zhijie Li, Fuzhong Wu and Changhui Peng

      Version of Record online: 17 FEB 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13569

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      Individual effects of N addition and elevated CO2 on C:N:P stoichiometry are stronger than warming, and combined effects of driver pairs are generally weaker than individual effects of each of these drivers. Additive interactions are more common than synergistic or antagonistic interactions. C:N:P stoichiometries of soil and microbial biomass show high homeostasis under global change manipulations.

  4. Letters

    1. Trends in tropical tree growth: re-analyses confirm earlier findings

      Peter van der Sleen, Peter Groenendijk, Mart Vlam, Niels P. R. Anten, Frans Bongers and Pieter A. Zuidema

      Version of Record online: 17 FEB 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13572

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      In a recent Opinion article, Brienen et al. (2016) raise doubts about our finding that tropical tree growth has not increased during 150 years of CO2 rise (Groenendijk et al., 2015; van der Sleen et al., 2015). They claim that our tree-ring data contain evidence for historical growth stimulation that was concealed due to failing regeneration in several species. Here we show that (i) the correction method proposed by Brienen et al. induces a bias towards finding positive growth trends, (ii) the results of Brienen et al. rest on selective removal of species, (iii) there is a simple and effective way to accommodate effects of recruitment failure by subsetting data, and (iv) the application of this method confirms our earlier findings. Thus, our results are robust to effects of recruitment failure and our conclusions remain unchanged: we find no evidence for historical growth changes in our studied tree species.

  5. Primary Research Articles

    1. Landscape simplification weakens the association between terrestrial producer and consumer diversity in Europe

      Matteo Dainese, Nick J. B. Isaac, Gary D. Powney, Riccardo Bommarco, Erik Öckinger, Mikko Kuussaari, Juha Pöyry, Tim G. Benton, Doreen Gabriel, Jenny A. Hodgson, William E. Kunin, Regina Lindborg, Steven M. Sait and Lorenzo Marini

      Version of Record online: 15 FEB 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13601

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      Land-use change is one of the main anthropogenic drivers of species loss, yet its consequence on other components of biodiversity is poorly understood. By investigating the trophic associations between primary producers and consumers along a gradient of landscape simplification across Europe, we show a loss of both functional and phylogenetic associations between plants and butterflies in landscapes now dominated by arable land. These processes occurred even without immediate reductions of species richness. This approach significantly advances our understanding of the functional consequences of species associations’ loss for biodiversity in a changing world. It provides an innovative tool for early warning of alteration in ecosystem functioning.

    2. Contrasting growth forecasts across the geographical range of Scots pine due to altitudinal and latitudinal differences in climatic sensitivity

      Luis Matías, Juan C. Linares, Ángela Sánchez-Miranda and Alistair S. Jump

      Version of Record online: 15 FEB 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13627

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      We used Scots pine populations located at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the northern, central and southernmost populations and across an altitudinal gradient at the rear edge of the distribution to explore growth responses to climatic variability over the last century through dendrochronological methods and developed models based on age, climate and previous growth to forecast growth trends up to year 2100. Temperature was the main factor controlling growth variability, although the timing and strength of climatic variables affecting growth shifted with latitude and altitude. Predictive models forecast a general increase in Scots pine growth at treeline across the latitudinal distribution, with southern populations increasing growth up to year 2050, when it stabilizes. The highest responsiveness appeared at central latitudes, and moderate growth increase is projected at the northern limit. Contrastingly, the model forecasted growth decline at lowland-southern populations, suggesting an upslope range displacement over the coming decades.

  6. Opinion

    1. Moving beyond presence and absence when examining changes in species distributions:

      Michael B. Ashcroft, Diana H. King, Ben Raymond, Johanna D. Turnbull, Jane Wasley and Sharon A. Robinson

      Version of Record online: 15 FEB 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13628

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      Species distributions are often portrayed as binary representations of where they are present and absent. These are useful as rough guides but boundaries are virtually impossible to delineate accurately as the sampling effort to be certain of absence is prohibitive and populations near boundaries can be sparse and temporally variable. In this article, we highlight the advantages of focusing on relative abundance rather than presence-absence and demonstrate methods that can be used to convert probabilities of presence to expected abundance. This has implications for climate change predictions and the management of invasive species and land-use change.

  7. Primary Research Articles

    1. Phosphorus in agricultural soils: drivers of its distribution at the global scale

      Bruno Ringeval, Laurent Augusto, Hervé Monod, Dirk van Apeldoorn, Lex Bouwman, Xiaojuan Yang, David L. Achat, Louise P. Chini, Kristof Van Oost, Bertrand Guenet, Rong Wang, Bertrand Decharme, Thomas Nesme and Sylvain Pellerin

      Version of Record online: 15 FEB 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13618

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      Numerous processes drive the global spatial distribution of phosphorus (P) in agricultural soils, but their relative roles remain unclear. Thanks to a modelling approach, we found that almost all of the global spatial variability in total soil P in cropland soils (PTOT) could be explained by the distribution of the soil biogeochemical background (that determines the P content of soils at the conversion to agriculture, BIOG), while both BIOG and farming practices (FARM) explained the spatial variability in inorganic labile P (PILAB) (~40% and ~60%, respectively).

    2. You have full text access to this OnlineOpen article
      Estimating the ability of plants to plastically track temperature-mediated shifts in the spring phenological optimum

      Christine J. Tansey, Jarrod D. Hadfield and Albert B. Phillimore

      Version of Record online: 10 FEB 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13624

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      We use spatiotemporal spring phenology observations for 22 UK plant species to estimate the temperature-mediated plasticity of each species and the degree to which optimum timing changes with temperature. We find that all species are highly plastic and that in most cases, this plasticity is adaptive (i.e. it partially tracks temperature-mediated changes in the phenological optimum).

    3. Vulnerability of eastern US tree species to climate change

      Brendan M. Rogers, Patrick Jantz and Scott J. Goetz

      Version of Record online: 6 FEB 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13585

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      Here we provide a framework and application for tree species vulnerability in the eastern US focused on management application. We incorporated climate change exposure, species-specific sensitivity, and adaptive capacity for 40 tree species at 800 m resolution. Most species were considered vulnerable to climate change, particularly those in the northern states and at high-elevation, although there were notable cases of resilience.

    4. Parabolic variation in sexual selection intensity across the range of a cold-water pipefish: implications for susceptibility to climate change

      Nuno Monteiro, Mário Cunha, Lídia Ferreira, Natividade Vieira, Agostinho Antunes, David Lyons and Adam G. Jones

      Version of Record online: 6 FEB 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13630

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      We investigated the links between temperature and sexual selection along a wide latitudinal temperature gradient, in a sex-role reversed pipefish. Our results highlight a parabolic distribution of sexual selection intensity that is simultaneously amplified by hot and cold temperatures, along the distribution of a species whose distribution is currently shifting northward. Our results allow for meaningful predictions, based on data from extant populations experiencing different temperature regimes (temperature range is sufficiently wide to encompass projected increases in seawater temperatures for the next century), regarding range shifts and phenotypic responses to changing climates.

    5. Multiple stressors threaten the imperiled coastal foundation species eelgrass (Zostera marina) in Chesapeake Bay, USA

      Jonathan S. Lefcheck, David J. Wilcox, Rebecca R. Murphy, Scott R. Marion and Robert J. Orth

      Version of Record online: 6 FEB 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13623

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      We used 31 years of aerial imaging and water quality data to document the decline of eelgrass in Chesapeake Bay, USA. Losses are being driven by an interaction between increasing summertime temperatures, and reduced light availability due to declining water clarity (Secchi). As a key foundational habitat, the loss of eelgrass in this region will have severe ecological and economic consequences for citizens of the Bay.

    6. Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation

      Camille Dezécache, Jean-Michel Salles, Ghislain Vieilledent and Bruno Hérault

      Version of Record online: 6 FEB 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13611

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      Whilst spatial deforestation models have failed to accurately predict deforestation trends, it is urgently needed to stop considering deforestation as a purely spatial process and move forward socio-economically focused deforestation models. In this study, we put emphasis on the socio-economic dimension of deforestation by coupling a model predicting the location of deforestation with an intensity model predicting its intensity. This intensity component was divided between three sub-models, each focusing on a precise human activity provoking deforestation. This explicit and accurate characterisation of the socio-economic aspects of deforestation is critical for the creation of consistent deforestation scenarios in REDD+ projects.

    7. Greater temperature sensitivity of plant phenology at colder sites: implications for convergence across northern latitudes

      Janet Prevéy, Mark Vellend, Nadja Rüger, Robert D. Hollister, Anne D. Bjorkman, Isla H. Myers-Smith, Sarah C. Elmendorf, Karin Clark, Elisabeth J. Cooper, Bo Elberling, Anna M. Fosaa, Gregory H. R. Henry, Toke T. Høye, Ingibjörg S. Jónsdóttir, Kari Klanderud, Esther Lévesque, Marguerite Mauritz, Ulf Molau, Susan M. Natali, Steven F. Oberbauer, Zoe A. Panchen, Eric Post, Sabine B. Rumpf, Niels M. Schmidt, Edward A. G. Schuur, Phillip R. Semenchuk, Tiffany Troxler, Jeffrey M. Welker and Christian Rixen

      Version of Record online: 6 FEB 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13619

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      Warmer temperatures are accelerating the phenology of organisms around the world, and temperature sensitivity of phenology might be greater in colder, higher latitude sites than in warmer regions. We tested this hypothesis using phenology data for 47 tundra plant species at 18 high-latitude sites along a climatic gradient. Across all species, the timing of leaf emergence and flowering was more sensitive to a given increase in summer temperature at colder than warmer high-latitude locations. These are among the first results highlighting differential phenological responses of plants across a climatic gradient and suggest the possibility of convergence in flowering times and therefore an increase in gene flow across latitudes as the climate warms. (Photo credit: Anne D. Bjorkman)

    8. Tree range expansion in eastern North America fails to keep pace with climate warming at northern range limits

      Fabian Sittaro, Alain Paquette, Christian Messier and Charles A. Nock

      Version of Record online: 6 FEB 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13622

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      Rising global temperatures are suggested to be drivers of shifts in tree species ranges, but long-term shifts in tree species ranges remain poorly documented. We test for shifts in the northern range limits of 16 temperate tree species in Quebec, Canada, using forest inventory data spanning three decades, 15° of longitude and 7° of latitude. Tree species ranges shifted predominantly northward; however, species latitudinal velocities were on average <50% of the velocity required to equal the spatial velocity of climate change. Our results add to the body of evidence suggesting limited capacity of tree species to track climate warming, supporting concerns that warming will negatively impact the functioning of forest ecosystems.

    9. Extreme rainfall and snowfall alter responses of soil respiration to nitrogen fertilization: a 3-year field experiment

      Zengming Chen, Yehong Xu, Xuhui Zhou, Jianwu Tang, Yakov Kuzyakov, Hongyan Yu, Jianling Fan and Weixin Ding

      Version of Record online: 31 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13620

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      In normal rainfall years, N fertilization stimulated total soil respiration by increased autotrophic respiration. Soil respiration was unresponsive to N fertilization in a record wet year due to reduction in both autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration by extreme rainfall. Extreme snowfall stimulated nongrowing season soil respiration but reduced its response to N fertilization.

    10. Long-term enhanced winter soil frost alters growing season CO2 fluxes through its impact on vegetation development in a boreal peatland

      Junbin Zhao, Matthias Peichl and Mats B. Nilsson

      Version of Record online: 31 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13621

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      The enhanced winter soil frost did not significantly affect the growing season gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) in the short term; however, in the long term (i.e. after 11 consecutive winters with enhanced soil frost treatment), the growing season ER was reduced and seasonal pattern of GPP was changed.

    11. Landscape genetics indicate recently increased habitat fragmentation in African forest-associated chafers

      Jonas Eberle, Dennis Rödder, Marc Beckett and Dirk Ahrens

      Version of Record online: 31 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13616

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      South Africa's indigenous forest remains hold a unique and valuable fauna, fostered by long-term climatic stability and complex microclimates. The study investigates their still debated natural extent using an integrated approach of current and past climatic niche modeling, landscape connectivity analyses, and population-level molecular phylogeography of forest-associated chafer species. Results suggested considerable loss of habitat connectivity since the Holocene altithermal and supported a much wider potential current extension of forests. The models revealed high-priority areas where afforestation and reduced burning might be most effective for a balanced conservation of forests, grasslands, and fynbos vegetation.

    12. Multiple night-time light-emitting diode lighting strategies impact grassland invertebrate assemblages

      Thomas W. Davies, Jonathan Bennie, Dave Cruse, Dan Blumgart, Richard Inger and Kevin J. Gaston

      Version of Record online: 31 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13615

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      White light-emitting diodes (LEDs) are rapidly replacing conventional outdoor lighting around the world, despite rising concerns over their effects on animals and plants. We compared the efficacy with which alternative lighting strategies reduced the number of ground-dwelling invertebrate taxa aggregating under LEDs. A combination of dimming by 50% and switching lights off between midnight and 04:00 am showed the most promise for reducing the ecological impacts of LEDs, but did not avoid them altogether. Averting the environmental consequences of LEDs and other lighting technologies may ultimately require avoiding their use altogether.

    13. A decade of boreal rich fen greenhouse gas fluxes in response to natural and experimental water table variability

      David Olefeldt, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Jennifer Harden, Evan Kane, A. David McGuire, Mark P. Waldrop and Merritt R. Turetsky

      Version of Record online: 31 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13612

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      We carried out a water table manipulation experiment at an Alaskan rich fen and monitored greenhouse gas exchange over 9 years to determine both short-term and long-term controls on methane emissions, ecosystem respiration, net ecosystem exchange and gross primary production. We explored lag effects and found that experimentally exacerbated droughts caused reduced gross primary production in subsequent wet years. We show that distinct hydrology and biogeochemistry of rich fens may cause them to respond characteristically to climate change.

    14. The threat to coral reefs from more intense cyclones under climate change

      Alistair J. Cheal, M. Aaron MacNeil, Michael J. Emslie and Hugh Sweatman

      Version of Record online: 31 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13593

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      We investigated whether predicted climate-driven increases in cyclone intensity might change the nature of coral reefs. Field surveys showed that a recent spate of unusually intense cyclones on Australia's Great Barrier Reef caused record losses within coral and fish communities over >1000 km and initial community recovery was slow. We match this recent sequence of cyclones to predicted changes in cyclone intensity under climate change and show that such storm sequences could occur far more frequently within this century and pose a global threat to coral reefs and dependent societies.

    15. Effects of amphibian phylogeny, climate and human impact on the occurrence of the amphibian-killing chytrid fungus

      Leonardo D. Bacigalupe, Claudio Soto-Azat, Cristobal García-Vera, Ismael Barría-Oyarzo and Enrico L. Rezende

      Version of Record online: 31 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13610

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      Chytridiomycosis, due to the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), has been associated with the alarming decline and extinction crisis of amphibians worldwide. Because conservation programs are implemented locally, it is essential to understand how the complex interactions among host species, climate and human activities contribute to Bd occurrence at regional scales. Analyses show that Bd prevalence decreases with latitude although it has increased by almost 10% between 2008 and 2013, possibly reflecting an ongoing spread of Bd following the introduction of Xenopus laevis. Occurrence of Bd was higher in regions with high gross domestic product (particularly near developed centers) and with a high variability in rainfall regimes. Taken together, our results highlight that Bd in Chile might still be spreading south, facilitated by a subset of species that seem to play an important epidemiological role maintaining this pathogen in the communities, in combination with climatic and human factors affecting the availability and quality of amphibian breeding sites.

  8. Research Reviews

    1. Responses to atmospheric CO2 concentrations in crop simulation models: a review of current simple and semicomplex representations and options for model development

      Eline Vanuytrecht and Peter J. Thorburn

      Version of Record online: 30 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13600

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      Diversity and limited validation of simple and semicomplex modelled responses to [CO2] are common among models. Whereas production responses show some consistency, transpiration responses vary more widely, and most notably, nitrogen responses were found to be included in few crop models despite being critical in photosynthetic acclimation, crop nutritional quality and carbon allocation. We suggest harmonization and more mechanistic concepts in particular subroutines, to which intercomparison studies that explicitly identify representations and assumptions that cause intermodel differences could assist.

  9. Primary Research Articles

    1. Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate

      Simon J. van Gennip, Ekaterina E. Popova, Andrew Yool, Gretta T. Pecl, Alistair J. Hobday and Cascade J. B. Sorte

      Version of Record online: 27 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13586

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      Under anthropogenic climate change, living systems in the ocean are experiencing stressors including elevated temperature and decreased productivity. Here, we hypothesize a further stressor: ocean circulation change. This threatens to modify the flow pathways used by marine species for dispersing their larval stages, potentially preventing them from reaching settling grounds. Using a global simulation of an extreme climate scenario, we calculate how dispersal pathways for the entire global coastline may change over the 21st century. We highlight regions with the greatest circulation stress, where pathways run with/against climate change, and where connectivity may weaken, strengthen or alter entirely in the future.

    2. Climatic warming strengthens a positive feedback between alpine shrubs and fire

      James S. Camac, Richard J. Williams, Carl-Henrik Wahren, Ary A. Hoffmann and Peter A. Vesk

      Version of Record online: 27 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13614

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      We used field surveys and experimental manipulations to examine how warming and fire affect shrub seedling recruitment and growth and survival. We found that warming, coupled with more frequent or severe fires, will likely increase the cover and abundance of evergreen shrubs—a major fuel for alpine fires. As a consequence, warming is likely to strengthen an existing feedback between shrub abundance and fire in these ecosystems.

    3. Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe

      Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero, Jean-Baptiste Lamy, Alexis Ducousso, Brigitte Musch, François Ehrenmann, Sylvain Delzon, Stephen Cavers, Władysław Chałupka, Said Dağdaş, Jon Kehlet Hansen, Steve J. Lee, Mirko Liesebach, Hans-Martin Rau, Achilleas Psomas, Volker Schneck, Wilfried Steiner, Niklaus E. Zimmermann and Antoine Kremer

      Version of Record online: 25 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13576

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      We conducted field experiments where more than 150 000 trees from 116 geographically diverse populations of sessile oak were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries. Population responses for tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071–2100. Overall, results indicated a moderate response of sessile oak to climate variation, with changes in dryness explaining a predominant part of the response. Stronger and more negative future responses are expected for southeastern populations (Turkey, Hungary) than for central and northern populations (Denmark, Norway).

    4. The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO2

      Zhenong Jin, Qianlai Zhuang, Jiali Wang, Sotirios V. Archontoulis, Zachary Zobel and Veerabhadra R. Kotamarthi

      Version of Record online: 25 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13617

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      This study quantifies the current and future yield responses of US rainfed maize and soybean to climate extremes and for the first time characterizes spatial shifts in the relative importance of high temperature, heat and drought stress.

    5. Regional variation in the temperature sensitivity of soil organic matter decomposition in China's forests and grasslands

      Yuan Liu, Nianpeng He, Jianxing Zhu, Li Xu, Guirui Yu, Shuli Niu, Xiaomin Sun and Xuefa Wen

      Version of Record online: 25 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13613

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      Path analysis indicated that environmental variables and substrate properties together explained 52% of total variation in temperature sensitivity (Q10) of soil organic matter decomposition across all sites. Soil pH and soil electrical conductivity (EC) explained most variation in Q10.

    6. Simple additive simulation overestimates real influence: altered nitrogen and rainfall modulate the effect of warming on soil carbon fluxes

      Xiangyin Ni, Wanqin Yang, Zemin Qi, Shu Liao, Zhenfeng Xu, Bo Tan, Bin Wang, Qinggui Wu, Changkun Fu, Chengming You and Fuzhong Wu

      Version of Record online: 25 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13588

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      To investigate how altered nitrogen and rainfall modulate the effect of warming on soil carbon fluxes, we synthesized global data on soil carbon pool, input and loss from experiments simulating nitrogen deposition, drought and increased precipitation and quantified the responses of soil carbon fluxes and equilibrium to the three single factors and their interactions with warming. We found that the positive carbon–warming feedback was modulated by the changing nitrogen and rainfall regimes. Further, we found that simple additive simulation overestimated the ‘real’ effects on soil carbon fluxes, suggesting that more multifactorial experiments should be considered in studying Earth systems.

    7. The global pyrogenic carbon cycle and its impact on the level of atmospheric CO2 over past and future centuries

      Jean-Sébastien Landry and H. Damon Matthews

      Version of Record online: 25 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13603

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      We included global pyrogenic carbon (PyC) cycling in a coupled climate–carbon model to assess the role of PyC in historical and future simulations. PyC cycling decreased atmospheric CO2 only slightly between 1751 and 2000 as PyC-related fluxes changed little over the period. For 2000 to 2300, PyC cycling will likely reduce the future increase in atmospheric CO2 if landscape fires become much more frequent; otherwise, PyC cycling might contribute to, rather than mitigate, the future increase in atmospheric CO2.

    8. Drought causes reduced growth of trembling aspen in western Canada

      Lei Chen, Jian-Guo Huang, Syed Ashraful Alam, Lihong Zhai, Andria Dawson, Kenneth J. Stadt and Philip G. Comeau

      Version of Record online: 25 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13595

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      Droughts are closely related to the reduced growth of trembling aspen in western Canadian boreal forests. Drought indices could be applied to monitor the potential effects of increased drought stress on aspen trees growth, achieving classification of eco-regions and developing effective mitigation strategies to maintain western Canadian boreal forests.

    9. Climate trends account for stalled wheat yields in Australia since 1990

      Zvi Hochman, David L. Gobbett and Heidi Horan

      Version of Record online: 24 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13604

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      We investigated why Australia's wheat yields have stalled since 1990 by simulating yields at 50 representative sites in the grain zone. Yield potential declined by 27% over 26 years. We showed that this is due to declining rainfall and to rising temperatures while the positive effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations prevented a further 4% loss. This climate-driven decline in yield potential was balanced by an unprecedented rate of adoption of technology-driven gains closing the gap between actual and potential yields.

    10. Leaf chlorophyll content as a proxy for leaf photosynthetic capacity

      Holly Croft, Jing M. Chen, Xiangzhong Luo, Paul Bartlett, Bin Chen and Ralf M. Staebler

      Version of Record online: 21 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13599

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      Improving modelled estimates of forest carbon exchange requires accurate parameterization of photosynthetic capacity (Vcmax) within terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). This research investigates leaf biochemical variables for modelling photosynthetic parameters within a deciduous forest. Seasonality and interspecies variability resulted in weak correlations between Vcmax and leaf nitrogen; challenging assumptions that simple nitrogen–inline image relationships can reliably constrain photosynthetic capacity in TBMs. Conversely, leaf chlorophyll (ChlLeaf) accounted for 76% of inline image variability, suggesting that ChlLeaf provides a more accurate and direct proxy for Vcmax.

    11. Urbanization drives community shifts towards thermophilic and dispersive species at local and landscape scales

      Elena Piano, Katrien De Wolf, Francesca Bona, Dries Bonte, Diana E. Bowler, Marco Isaia, Luc Lens, Thomas Merckx, Daan Mertens, Marc van Kerckvoorde, Luc De Meester and Frederik Hendrickx

      Version of Record online: 18 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13606

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      The increasing conversion of agricultural and natural areas to urban landscapes is predicted to lead to a major decline in global biodiversity. However, the extent and spatial scale at which these altered conditions shape biotic communities through selection and/or filtering on species traits is poorly understood. We repeatedly sampled carabid beetle communities at three different local-scale urbanization levels in landscapes showing the same variation in urbanization. Urban communities showed a clear turnover of species tolerating higher temperatures and an almost complete depletion of low dispersive species in the most urbanized localities. The observed shifts in community traits were most pronounced at the local scale, although more subtle effects were even observed at the landscape scale. Our results demonstrate that urbanization may consistently alter species composition by exerting a strong filtering effect on species dispersal characteristics and favouring replacement by warm-dwelling species.

    12. Risks of ocean acidification in the California Current food web and fisheries: ecosystem model projections

      Kristin N. Marshall, Isaac C. Kaplan, Emma E. Hodgson, Albert Hermann, D. Shallin Busch, Paul McElhany, Timothy E. Essington, Chris J. Harvey and Elizabeth A. Fulton

      Version of Record online: 12 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13594

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      We used an end-to-end ecosystem model to assess potential risks of ocean acidification likely to occur over the next 50 years in the California Current food web and fisheries it supports. We found that mean effects of changing pH at the scale of the ecosystem are generally low, but individual species and functional groups responded more strongly. In particular, some nearshore epibenthic invertebrates and groundfish and the fisheries that target them were most susceptible to pH changes.

    13. Seasonality constraints to livestock grazing intensity

      Tamara Fetzel, Petr Havlik, Mario Herrero and Karl-Heinz Erb

      Version of Record online: 10 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13591

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      Increasing food production from grasslands without accelerating deforestation and competition for food crops is essential to meet the future food demand of a growing world population. We explore ecological limits to grazing intensity (e.g. the fraction of net primary production (NPP) consumed by grazing animals) by analysing the role of seasonality in natural grasslands and estimate an ecological maximum grazing intensity based on assumptions on the length of nonfavourable periods that can be bridged by livestock (e.g. by browsing dead standing biomass, storage systems or biomass conservation). Comparing GI in the year 2000 to the estimated seasonal maximum reveals a potential to increasing biomass extraction on 39% of the global natural grasslands. This could contribute to increasing milk or meat production by 5% and 4% or contribute to free up 2.8 Mio km² of grassland area for carbon sequestration, if numerous socio-ecological constraints can be overcome.

    14. You have full text access to this OnlineOpen article
      Large extents of intensive land use limit community reorganization during climate warming

      Tom H. Oliver, Simon Gillings, James W. Pearce-Higgins, Tom Brereton, Humphrey Q. P. Crick, Simon J. Duffield, Michael D. Morecroft and David B. Roy

      Version of Record online: 10 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13587

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      This study investigates how bird and butterfly communities have changed during three decades of climate warming. We present the first evidence to show that community changes appear to be constrained by high-intensity land use. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation.

    15. Grassland gross carbon dioxide uptake based on an improved model tree ensemble approach considering human interventions: global estimation and covariation with climate

      Wei Liang, Yihe Lü, Weibin Zhang, Shuai Li, Zhao Jin, Philippe Ciais, Bojie Fu, Shuai Wang, Jianwu Yan, Junyi Li and Huimin Su

      Version of Record online: 10 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13592

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      Global grassland gross primary production (GPP) was first estimated by an improved model tree ensemble approach considering human interventions (grazing and cutting). Global grassland GPP was on average 11 ± 0.31 Pg C per year and exhibited significantly increasing trend at both annual and seasonal scales, with an annual increase of 0.023 Pg C (0.2%) from 1982 to 2011. Arid and semiarid regions dominated the trend and variability of the global grassland gross carbon dioxide uptake at both seasonal and annual time scales.

    16. Global thermal niche models of two European grasses show high invasion risks in Antarctica

      Luis R. Pertierra, Pedro Aragón, Justine D. Shaw, Dana M. Bergstrom, Aleks Terauds and Miguel Ángel Olalla-Tárraga

      Version of Record online: 10 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13596

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      The two non-native grasses that have established long-term populations in Antarctica (Poa pratensis and Poa annua) were studied from a global multidimensional thermal niche perspective to address the biological invasion risk to Antarctica. We conclude that several areas across the region are vulnerable to invasions from these and other similar species.

    17. You have full text access to this OnlineOpen article
      Testing for local adaptation and evolutionary potential along altitudinal gradients in rainforest Drosophila: beyond laboratory estimates

      Eleanor K. O'Brien, Megan Higgie, Alan Reynolds, Ary A. Hoffmann and Jon R. Bridle

      Version of Record online: 10 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13553

    18. Impaired ecosystem process despite little effects on populations: modeling combined effects of warming and toxicants

      Nika Galic, Volker Grimm and Valery E. Forbes

      Version of Record online: 7 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13581

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      Freshwater ecosystems are exposed to many stressors, including toxic chemicals and global warming. We were interested in exploring how these stressors, alone and in combination, propagate across levels of biological organization, including a key ecosystem process. We developed an individual-based model of a freshwater amphipod, Gammarus pseudolimnaeus, feeding on leaf litter. We then tested, in different warming scenarios (+1–+4 °C), the effects of hypothetical toxicants on suborganismal processes, including feeding, somatic and maturity maintenance, growth, and reproduction. Warming in combination with toxicants had little effect at the individual and population levels, but ecosystem process was impaired in the warmer scenarios.

    19. Assessing long-term effects of multiple, potentially confounded drivers in ecosystems from species traits

      Mathieu Floury, Philippe Usseglio-Polatera, Cecile Delattre and Yves Souchon

      Version of Record online: 7 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13575

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      Using a priori predictions on the long-term variation of trait-based adaptations, we evaluated the ability of invertebrate traits to indicate the effects of warming, discharge reduction and water quality improvement over three decades in a large river (Middle Loire, France). More than 70% of these predictions were confirmed, supporting (i) a general climate-induced trend, involving adapted resistance and resilience strategies, and (ii) a partial confounding effect of water quality improvement, acting on trophic processes. By highlighting that improved water quality management can significantly help to reduce some adverse effects of climate change, our trait-based approach can have wider implications for investigating long-term changes driven by multiple, potentially confounded factors, as frequently encountered in the context of global change.

    20. Effects of seasonality, transport pathway, and spatial structure on greenhouse gas fluxes in a restored wetland

      Gavin McNicol, Cove S. Sturtevant, Sara H. Knox, Iryna Dronova, Dennis D. Baldocchi and Whendee L. Silver

      Version of Record online: 7 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13580

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      Wetlands are landscape hotspots for greenhouse gas exchange, but their overall climate effects are uncertain due to simultaneous uptake and release of different greenhouse gases and the complexity of regulating processes. We estimated an annual greenhouse gas budget for a restored wetland in the Sacramento Delta California using a suite of complementary techniques to overcome the challenges of wetland complexity. We found that greenhouse gas fluxes produced an overall warming climate effect and were sensitive to aboveground cover type, gas transport pathway, and wetland seasonality.

    21. Strong thermal acclimation of photosynthesis in tropical and temperate wet-forest tree species: the importance of altered Rubisco content

      Andrew P. Scafaro, Shuang Xiang, Benedict M. Long, Nur H. A. Bahar, Lasantha K. Weerasinghe, Danielle Creek, John R. Evans, Peter B. Reich and Owen K. Atkin

      Version of Record online: 3 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13566

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      We analysed and modelled temperature-dependent changes in photosynthetic capacity in 10 wet-forest tree species; six from temperate forests and four from tropical forests. Area-based rates of photosynthetic apacity (Vcmax) linearly declined with increasing growth temperature, linked to a concomitant decline in total leaf protein per unit leaf area and Rubisco as a percentage of leaf nitrogen. A new model is proposed that accounts for the effect of growth temperature-mediated declines in Vcmax on photosynthesis.

    22. You have free access to this content
      Regional climate on the breeding grounds predicts variation in the natal origin of monarch butterflies overwintering in Mexico over 38 years:

      D. T. Tyler Flockhart, Lincoln P. Brower, M. Isabel Ramirez, Keith A. Hobson, Leonard I. Wassenaar, Sonia Altizer and D. Ryan Norris

      Version of Record online: 3 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13589

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      The conservation of monarch butterflies requires linking populations across different portions of the annual cycle and understanding how variation in weather and climate influences productivity, recruitment, and patterns of long-distance movement. Tyler Flockhart et al. associate the natal origin of monarch butterflies overwintering in Mexico collected over almost four decades with global oscillation patterns and region-specific temperature and precipitation. The results suggest that ongoing conservation efforts on the breeding grounds should focus on the US Midwest region, but the population will likely remain sensitive to regional and stochastic weather patterns.

    23. Chlorophyll fluorescence tracks seasonal variations of photosynthesis from leaf to canopy in a temperate forest

      Hualei Yang, Xi Yang, Yongguang Zhang, Mary A. Heskel, Xiaoliang Lu, J. William Munger, Shucun Sun and Jianwu Tang

      Version of Record online: 3 JAN 2017 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13590

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      We studied the relationship between fluorescence and photosynthesis at the leaf, canopy, and larger scales using both field-based and satellite remote sensing data across the entire growing season. We found that fluorescence captured the seasonal variations of photosynthesis with a linear relationship over different spatial scales. Our results suggest that fluorescence is a useful proxy to monitor photosynthesis at leaf, canopy, and ecosystem scales.

    24. Holocene carbon dynamics at the forest–steppe ecotone of southern Siberia

      Anson William Mackay, Alistair W. R. Seddon, Melanie J. Leng, Georg Heumann, David W. Morley, Natalia Piotrowska, Patrick Rioual, Sarah Roberts and George E. A. Swann

      Version of Record online: 28 DEC 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13583

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      The forest–steppe ecotone in southern Siberia is highly sensitive to climate change; global warming is expected to push the ecotone northwards, at the same time resulting in degradation of the underlying permafrost. To gain a deeper understanding of long-term forest–steppe carbon dynamics, we use a highly resolved, multiproxy, palaeolimnological approach, based on sediment records from Lake Baikal. Generalized additive models identify significant change points in temporal series, which we relate to abrupt sub-Milankovitch scale events. About 1.03 Pg of C has been buried in Lake Baikal sediments since the start of the Holocene, with almost one-quarter of budget being buried within the first few thousand years.

    25. Tree demography suggests multiple directions and drivers for species range shifts in mountains of Northeastern United States

      Jay W. Wason and Martin Dovciak

      Version of Record online: 28 DEC 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13584

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      Adult and sapling distributions of dominant tree species in mountains of the northeastern United States suggest a potential upslope shift only for American beech, downslope shifts for sugar maple and red spruce, and no change with elevation for balsam fir. All species exhibited individualistic responses to climate and land use, and the return of red spruce to lower elevations, where past logging originally benefited northern hardwood species, indicates that land use may mask species range shifts caused by changing climate.

    26. Long-term forest resilience to climate change indicated by mortality, regeneration, and growth in semiarid southern Siberia

      Chongyang Xu, Hongyan Liu, Oleg A. Anenkhonov, Andrey Yu Korolyuk, Denis V. Sandanov, Larisa D. Balsanova, Bulat B. Naidanov and Xiuchen Wu

      Version of Record online: 28 DEC 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13582

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      In this study, long-term forest resilience was defined as the capacity of forest recruitment to compensate for losses from mortality, to examine long-term resilience of semiarid forests against climate change in southern Siberia of Russia. With increased severity of local aridity, forests became vulnerable to drought stress, and regeneration first accelerated and then ceased. Smaller forest patches always have relatively weaker resilience under the same climatic conditions.

    27. Assessing forest vulnerability to climate warming using a process-based model of tree growth: bad prospects for rear-edges

      Raúl Sánchez-Salguero, Jesus Julio Camarero, Emilia Gutiérrez, Fidel González Rouco, Antonio Gazol, Gabriel Sangüesa-Barreda, Laia Andreu-Hayles, Juan Carlos Linares and Kristina Seftigen

      Version of Record online: 24 DEC 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13541

    28. Decadal shifts in autumn migration timing by Pacific Arctic beluga whales are related to delayed annual sea ice formation

      Donna D. W. Hauser, Kristin L. Laidre, Kathleen M. Stafford, Harry L. Stern, Robert S. Suydam and Pierre R. Richard

      Version of Record online: 21 DEC 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13564

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      The consequences of rapid changes in Arctic sea ice have the potential to affect the migrations of a number of marine species that are temporally matched to seasonal sea ice cover. We quantified changes in autumn migration timing for sympatric ‘Chukchi’ and ‘Beaufort’ beluga whale populations relative to delayed regional sea ice freeze-up since the 1990s, using two independent data sources (satellite telemetry and passive acoustics). During the late tagging period, Chukchi belugas had significantly delayed autumn migrations (2 to >4 weeks) as regional sea ice freeze-up timing occurred later. In contrast, Beaufort belugas did not shift migration timing between periods, nor was migration timing related to freeze-up timing. This first phenological study examining beluga whale migrations within the context of their rapidly transforming Pacific Arctic ecosystem suggests flexible responses that may enable their persistence yet also complicate predictions of how belugas may fare in the future.

    29. You have full text access to this OnlineOpen article
      Global loss of avian evolutionary uniqueness in urban areas

      Juan Diego Ibáñez-Álamo, Enrique Rubio, Yanina Benedetti and Federico Morelli

      Version of Record online: 20 DEC 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13567

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      We investigated the hypothesis that urbanization reduces the global taxonomic and/or evolutionary diversity in birds. We found a strong and globally consistent reduction in taxonomic diversity in urban areas, which is also synchronized with the evolutionary homogenization of urban bird communities. Despite our general patterns, we found some regional differences in the intensity of the effect of cities on bird species richness or evolutionary distinctiveness, suggesting that conservation efforts should be adapted locally.

    30. You have full text access to this OnlineOpen article
      Marine assemblages respond rapidly to winter climate variability

      James W. Morley, Ryan D. Batt and Malin L. Pinsky

      Version of Record online: 20 DEC 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13578

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      Annual variation in the distribution of species within a marine assemblage was explained by winter temperatures. The response of individual species was predictable based on their temperature preference.

    31. Response of vegetation phenology to urbanization in the conterminous United States

      Xuecao Li, Yuyu Zhou, Ghassem R. Asrar, Jiafu Mao, Xiaoma Li and Wenyu Li

      Version of Record online: 18 DEC 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13562

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      • Phenology cycle (changes in vegetation greenness) in urban areas starts earlier and ends later, resulting in a longer growing season length (GSL), when compared to the respective surrounding urban areas.
      • The average difference of GSL between urban and rural areas is consistent among different climate zones in the United States, whereas their magnitudes are varying across regions.
      • A tenfold increase in urban size could result in an earlier start of season of about 1.3 days and a later end of season (EOS) of around 2.4 days, with a growing season length extended by approximately 3.6 days.
    32. Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America

      Michael J. Case and Joshua J. Lawler

      Version of Record online: 18 DEC 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13570

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      We combined projections from simple empirical models built for six tree species in northwestern North America with the outputs of a complex vegetation model that simulates growth and competition among different basic plant types. Our combined model projections tended to forecast more climate-driven contraction in species distributions than did the simple models alone.

    33. Ectomycorrhizal fungal response to warming is linked to poor host performance at the boreal-temperate ecotone

      Christopher W. Fernandez, Nhu H. Nguyen, Artur Stefanski, Ying Han, Sarah E. Hobbie, Rebecca A. Montgomery, Peter B. Reich and Peter G. Kennedy

      Version of Record online: 18 DEC 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13510

    34. Climate-induced glacier and snow loss imperils alpine stream insects

      J. Joseph Giersch, Scott Hotaling, Ryan P. Kovach, Leslie A. Jones and Clint C. Muhlfeld

      Version of Record online: 16 DEC 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13565

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      Climate change is causing the loss of glaciers and snowfields worldwide, leading to major changes in alpine stream ecosystems. Using a large dataset with high-resolution climate and habitat information, we describe the distribution, status, and key environmental features that limit the distributions of two rare alpine insects, the meltwater and western glacier stoneflies, which were recently recommended for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Our results clearly link the loss of alpine glaciers and snowfields to the fate of both species, providing a rare direct connection between climate-induced habitat change and mountaintop biodiversity.

    35. Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest

      Lara M. Kueppers, Erin Conlisk, Cristina Castanha, Andrew B. Moyes, Matthew J. Germino, Perry de Valpine, Margaret S. Torn and Jeffry B. Mitton

      Version of Record online: 15 DEC 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13561

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      Climate warming is expected to promote upslope shifts in forests; however, common gardens subjected to climate manipulations indicate that warming and local genotype may constrain tree seedling recruitment above current treeline. Negative effects of warming in forest, treeline, and alpine sites were partly offset by watering, suggesting growing season moisture may limit establishment of future subalpine forests. Greater climate sensitivity of Engelmann spruce compared with limber pine portends potential future changes in the composition of high-elevation Rocky Mountain forests.

  10. Opinion

    1. Acid rain recovery may help to mitigate the impacts of climate change on thermally sensitive fish in lakes across eastern North America

      Dana R. Warren, Clifford. E. Kraft, Daniel C. Josephson and Charles T. Driscoll

      Version of Record online: 15 DEC 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13568

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      Declines in acid deposition have lead to recovery of trout in many mountain lake ecosystems across eastern North America. However, trout populations in these lakes are now under threat from increasing frequency and severity of hot summers. An unexpected by-product of recovery from acid rain may help mitigate against these climate change impacts. With acid recovery, dissolved organic matter is mobilized from soil, decreasing lake water clarity, which strengthens thermal stratification and enhances coldwater refuge for trout.

  11. Primary Research Articles

    1. A near half-century of temporal change in different facets of avian diversity

      Marta A. Jarzyna and Walter Jetz

      Version of Record online: 15 DEC 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13571

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      Assessing biodiversity change is essential to inform monitoring and conservation programs and evaluate implications of biodiversity loss to humans. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of a near-half century (1969–2013) of changes in avian taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity across much of North America. We found increases in bird diversity until ca. 2000, followed by a slow decline since, suggesting recent loss of avian diversity. We also found biotic homogenization of avian assemblages in terms of their functional characteristics. Lastly, we found that assemblage changes were greatest at high elevations and latitudes—consistent with purported effects of ongoing climate change on biodiversity.

    2. Experimental whole-stream warming alters community size structure

      Daniel Nelson, Jonathan P. Benstead, Alexander D. Huryn, Wyatt F. Cross, James M. Hood, Philip W. Johnson, James R. Junker, Gísli M. Gíslason and Jón S. Ólafsson

      Version of Record online: 14 DEC 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13574

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      Experimental whole-stream warming altered invertebrate assemblage structure and decreased total invertebrate abundance by 60% relative to a reference stream, while invertebrate biomass was unchanged due to invasions of new taxa and increased proportions of large, warm-adapted species relative to small-bodied, cold-adapted taxa. Community-level energy demand increased due to higher temperatures and was presumably met by increased primary production during warming.

    3. Continuous soil carbon storage of old permanent pastures in Amazonia

      Clément Stahl, Sébastien Fontaine, Katja Klumpp, Catherine Picon-Cochard, Marcia Mascarenhas Grise, Camille Dezécache, Lise Ponchant, Vincent Freycon, Lilian Blanc, Damien Bonal, Benoit Burban, Jean-François Soussana and Vincent Blanfort

      Version of Record online: 14 DEC 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13573

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      We find that the old pastures (≥24 years) have a high C storage, explained by a large part of C3 originated by legumes and shrubs and the increased of C4 grass. This carbon is mainly sequestered in the humus of deep soil layers (20–100 cm). Establishing the pasture with a mixture of plant species could provide unlimited accumulation of C in the long-term.

    4. Global warming may disproportionately affect larger adults in a predatory coral reef fish

      Vanessa Messmer, Morgan S. Pratchett, Andrew S. Hoey, Andrew J. Tobin, Darren J. Coker, Steven J. Cooke and Timothy D. Clark

      Version of Record online: 13 DEC 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13552

    5. Marine species in ambient low-oxygen regions subject to double jeopardy impacts of climate change

      Christine H. Stortini, Denis Chabot and Nancy L. Shackell

      Version of Record online: 5 DEC 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13534

    6. Warming of subarctic tundra increases emissions of all three important greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide

      Carolina Voigt, Richard E. Lamprecht, Maija E. Marushchak, Saara E. Lind, Alexander Novakovskiy, Mika Aurela, Pertti J. Martikainen and Christina Biasi

      Version of Record online: 5 DEC 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13563

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      Experimental air warming increased emissions of all three greenhouse gases (GHGs), including the highly understudied N2O, clearly demonstrating the need to include N2O in future Arctic GHG budgets. Increased GHG fluxes were regulated by changes in plant functioning and biogeochemical processes, leading to an enhanced soil input of labile carbon compounds via leaching. Plants were also identified as the main regulator of arctic N2O emissions. Importantly, we highlight the tight linkages between plant and soil processes, and the interactions between the top-soil and deeper soil layers, in regulating arctic GHG exchange.

    7. Climate change alters the reproductive phenology and investment of a lacustrine fish, the three-spine stickleback

      Rachel A. Hovel, Stephanie M. Carlson and Thomas P. Quinn

      Version of Record online: 30 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13531

    8. Additive impacts of experimental climate change increase risk to an ectotherm at the Arctic's edge

      Jon M. Davenport, Blake R. Hossack and LeeAnn Fishback

      Version of Record online: 30 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13543

    9. Novel forest decline triggered by multiple interactions among climate, an introduced pathogen and bark beetles

      Carmen M. Wong and Lori D. Daniels

      Version of Record online: 30 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13554

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      We used tree rings to determine why whitebark pine forests are declining. We found 72% of the whitebark pines were dead in our southern Canadian Rockies study area. While most trees ultimately died in the 1970s from bark beetles or a non-native disease, blister rust, these trees actually began declining in growth 30 years earlier. In contrast, live, healthy trees increased growth and were responsive to varying precipitation. Drought may have predisposed trees to blister rust further inciting beetle attacks and cumulatively causing whitebark pine decline.

  12. Opinion

    1. You have full text access to this OnlineOpen article
      The case for increasing the statistical power of eddy covariance ecosystem studies: why, where and how?

      Timothy Hill, Melanie Chocholek and Robert Clement

      Version of Record online: 30 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13547

  13. Primary Research Articles

    1. Plants, microorganisms, and soil temperatures contribute to a decrease in methane fluxes on a drained Arctic floodplain

      Min Jung Kwon, Felix Beulig, Iulia Ilie, Marcus Wildner, Kirsten Küsel, Lutz Merbold, Miguel D. Mahecha, Nikita Zimov, Sergey A. Zimov, Martin Heimann, Edward A. G. Schuur, Joel E. Kostka, Olaf Kolle, Ines Hilke and Mathias Göckede

      Version of Record online: 30 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13558

    2. Estuary–ocean connectivity: fast physics, slow biology

      Mélanie Raimonet and James E. Cloern

      Version of Record online: 29 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13546

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      We explored climate-driven oceanic variability as a source of estuarine variability by comparing monthly temperature and chlorophyll-a inside San Francisco Bay with those in adjacent shelf waters. We identified clear signals of climate-mediated oceanic variability in this estuary that depended on the process of connectivity and the time scale of ocean variability. This result has important implications for managing nutrient inputs to estuaries and for assessing their responses to climate change.

    3. Emerging climate-driven disturbance processes: widespread mortality associated with snow-to-rain transitions across 10° of latitude and half the range of a climate-threatened conifer

      Brian Buma, Paul E. Hennon, Constance A. Harrington, Jamie R. Popkin, John Krapek, Melinda S. Lamb, Lauren E. Oakes, Sari Saunders and Stefan Zeglen

      Version of Record online: 28 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13555

    4. Identifying the microbial taxa that consistently respond to soil warming across time and space

      Angela M. Oliverio, Mark A. Bradford and Noah Fierer

      Version of Record online: 28 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13557

    5. Woodland expansion in South African grassy biomes based on satellite observations (1990–2013): general patterns and potential drivers

      Andrew L. Skowno, Mark W. Thompson, Jens Hiestermann, Brad Ripley, Adam G. West and William J. Bond

      Version of Record online: 25 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13529

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    6. Forests growing under dry conditions have higher hydrological resilience to drought than do more humid forests

      David Helman, Itamar M. Lensky, Dan Yakir and Yagil Osem

      Version of Record online: 25 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13551

  14. Opinion

    1. The muddle of ages, turnover, transit, and residence times in the carbon cycle

      Carlos A. Sierra, Markus Müller, Holger Metzler, Stefano Manzoni and Susan E. Trumbore

      Version of Record online: 25 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13556

  15. Primary Research Articles

    1. Predator diversity and environmental change modify the strengths of trophic and nontrophic interactions

      Arnaud Sentis, Charlène Gémard, Baptiste Jaugeon and David S. Boukal

      Version of Record online: 25 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13560

    2. You have full text access to this OnlineOpen article
      Climate-related changes of soil characteristics affect bacterial community composition and function of high altitude and latitude lakes

      Carina Rofner, Hannes Peter, Núria Catalán, Fabian Drewes, Ruben Sommaruga and María Teresa Pérez

      Version of Record online: 25 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13545

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      Climate change affects lake catchment characteristics including soil run-off composition. This work shows that the origin of soil source (i.e., from above or below the treeline) is a major factor structuring bacterial community composition of oligotrophic lakes at high altitude and latitude regions. Further, it shows that changes in soil-derived organic matter can alleviate bacterial phosphorus limitation and potentially have major effects on the carbon and phosphorus cycling in lakes.

    3. Response of Sierra Nevada forests to projected climate–wildfire interactions

      Shuang Liang, Matthew D. Hurteau and Anthony LeRoy Westerling

      Version of Record online: 21 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13544

  16. Opinion

  17. Primary Research Articles

    1. Responses of arthropod populations to warming depend on latitude: evidence from urban heat islands

      Elsa Youngsteadt, Andrew F. Ernst, Robert R. Dunn and Steven D. Frank

      Version of Record online: 21 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13550

    2. You have full text access to this OnlineOpen article
      Decreasing, not increasing, leaf area will raise crop yields under global atmospheric change

      Venkatraman Srinivasan, Praveen Kumar and Stephen P. Long

      Version of Record online: 17 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13526

    3. An invasive wetland grass primes deep soil carbon pools

      Blanca Bernal, J. Patrick Megonigal and Thomas J. Mozdzer

      Version of Record online: 17 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13539

    4. The competitive status of trees determines their responsiveness to increasing atmospheric humidity – a climate trend predicted for northern latitudes

      Arvo Tullus, Priit Kupper, Ants Kaasik, Hardi Tullus, Krista Lõhmus, Anu Sõber and Arne Sellin

      Version of Record online: 17 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13540

    5. Threshold loss of discontinuous permafrost and landscape evolution

      Laura Chasmer and Chris Hopkinson

      Version of Record online: 16 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13537

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      Results indicate that a threshold shift to increased permafrost loss occurred following the severe ENSO of 1997/1998. Hydro-climate data indicate significant changes in the timing and amount of snow accumulation, shift warmer air temperatures, and coincident increase in areal run-off after 1998. Morphological changes in permafrost area are demonstrated using multitemporal airborne Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) and optical image analogues. Woody vegetation growth in wetlands and tree mortality at thawing plateau/wetland boundaries may be indicative of a tipping point in drainage efficiency and landscape evolution if permafrost loss continues.

    6. A synthesis of radial growth patterns preceding tree mortality

      Maxime Cailleret, Steven Jansen, Elisabeth M. R. Robert, Lucía Desoto, Tuomas Aakala, Joseph A. Antos, Barbara Beikircher, Christof Bigler, Harald Bugmann, Marco Caccianiga, Vojtěch Čada, Jesus J. Camarero, Paolo Cherubini, Hervé Cochard, Marie R. Coyea, Katarina Čufar, Adrian J. Das, Hendrik Davi, Sylvain Delzon, Michael Dorman, Guillermo Gea-Izquierdo, Sten Gillner, Laurel J. Haavik, Henrik Hartmann, Ana-Maria Hereş, Kevin R. Hultine, Pavel Janda, Jeffrey M. Kane, Vyacheslav I. Kharuk, Thomas Kitzberger, Tamir Klein, Koen Kramer, Frederic Lens, Tom Levanic, Juan C. Linares Calderon, Francisco Lloret, Raquel Lobo-Do-Vale, Fabio Lombardi, Rosana López Rodríguez, Harri Mäkinen, Stefan Mayr, Ilona Mészáros, Juha M. Metsaranta, Francesco Minunno, Walter Oberhuber, Andreas Papadopoulos, Mikko Peltoniemi, Any M. Petritan, Brigitte Rohner, Gabriel Sangüesa-Barreda, Dimitrios Sarris, Jeremy M. Smith, Amanda B. Stan, Frank Sterck, Dejan B. Stojanović, Maria L. Suarez, Miroslav Svoboda, Roberto Tognetti, José M. Torres-Ruiz, Volodymyr Trotsiuk, Ricardo Villalba, Floor Vodde, Alana R. Westwood, Peter H. Wyckoff, Nikolay Zafirov and Jordi Martínez-Vilalta

      Version of Record online: 12 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13535

    7. Hot spots of wheat yield decline with rising temperatures

      Senthold Asseng, Davide Cammarano, Bruno Basso, Uran Chung, Phillip D. Alderman, Kai Sonder, Matthew Reynolds and David B. Lobell

      Version of Record online: 10 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13530

    8. Different fates of deposited NH4+ and NO3− in a temperate forest in northeast China: a 15N tracer study

      Jun Liu, Bo Peng, Zongwei Xia, Jianfei Sun, Decai Gao, Weiwei Dai, Ping Jiang and Edith Bai

      Version of Record online: 10 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13533

    9. Experimental fire increases soil carbon dioxide efflux in a grassland long-term multifactor global change experiment

      Aaron L. Strong, Tera P. Johnson, Nona R. Chiariello and Christopher B. Field

      Version of Record online: 9 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13525

    10. Will phenotypic plasticity affecting flowering phenology keep pace with climate change?

      Bryce A. Richardson, Lindsay Chaney, Nancy L. Shaw and Shannon M. Still

      Version of Record online: 7 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13532

    11. High-resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea-level rise

      Christopher R. Field, Trina S. Bayard, Carina Gjerdrum, Jason M. Hill, Susan Meiman and Chris S. Elphick

      Version of Record online: 4 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13519

    12. You have full text access to this OnlineOpen article
      A longer vernal window: the role of winter coldness and snowpack in driving spring transitions and lags

      Alexandra R. Contosta, Alden Adolph, Denise Burchsted, Elizabeth Burakowski, Mark Green, David Guerra, Mary Albert, Jack Dibb, Mary Martin, William H. McDowell, Michael Routhier, Cameron Wake, Rachel Whitaker and Wilfred Wollheim

      Version of Record online: 3 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13517

  18. Opinion

    1. Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: recommendations for simulating wet and dry years:

      Alan K. Knapp, Meghan L. Avolio, Claus Beier, Charles J. W. Carroll, Scott L. Collins, Jeffrey S. Dukes, Lauchlan H. Fraser, Robert J. Griffin-Nolan, David L. Hoover, Anke Jentsch, Michael E. Loik, Richard P. Phillips, Alison K. Post, Osvaldo E. Sala, Ingrid J. Slette, Laura Yahdjian and Melinda D. Smith

      Version of Record online: 1 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13504

  19. Primary Research Articles

    1. Effects of ocean acidification increase embryonic sensitivity to thermal extremes in Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua

      Flemming T. Dahlke, Elettra Leo, Felix C. Mark, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Ulf Bickmeyer, Stephan Frickenhaus and Daniela Storch

      Version of Record online: 1 NOV 2016 | DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13527

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