Risk Analysis

Special Issue: Advances in Terrorism Risk Analysis

INTRODUCTION TO SPECIAL ISSUE: ADVANCES IN TERRORISM RISK ANALYSIS
By L. Anthony Cox, Jr. and Michael R. Greenberg

Defending a country against terrorist threats raises new challenges and opportunities for risk analysis, different from those that are familiar from risk analysis of natural disasters and complex technological systems. Terrorists can be informed, deceived, deterred, or distracted – options that are not available for managing the risks from hurricanes or unreliable systems and workers. This special issue of Risk Analysis: An International Journal examines recent progress in understanding, modeling, and managing the threats from terrorism, emphasizing some of the most useful and important papers on this subject published in the journal over the past five years. We hope to prepare similar special issues on other timely and important subjects, so please tell us of your ideas about how to use this special “virtual” issue format to maximize reader benefits.
Read the full Introduction to the Special Issue here.

SPECIAL ISSUE: ADVANCES IN TERRORISM RISK ANALYSIS
PART 1. PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT (PRA) OF TERRORIST ATTACKS

Choosing What to Protect
Vicki M. Bier

Critical Asset and Portfolio Risk Analysis: An All-Hazards Framework
Bilal M. Ayyub, William L. McGill, Mark Kaminskiy

Some Limitations of “Risk = Threat × Vulnerability × Consequence” for Risk Analysis of Terrorist Attacks
Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr

Optimal Resource Allocation for Defense of Targets Based on Differing Measures of Attractiveness
Vicki M. Bier, Naraphorn Haphuriwat, Jaime Menoyo, Rae Zimmerman, Alison M. Culpen

Risk-Based Decision Making for Terrorism Applications
Robin L. Dillon, Robert M. Liebe, Thomas Bestafka

Improving Risk-Based Decision Making for Terrorism Applications
Louis Anthony Cox, Jr

Invited Response to Cox's Comment: Improving Risk-Based Decision Making for Terrorism Applications
Robin L. Dillon, Robert M. Liebe

The Elephant in the Room Is Called Game Theory
John R. Hall, Jr Ph.D

Game Theory and Risk Analysis
Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr.

Intelligent Adversary Risk Analysis: A Bioterrorism Risk Management Model
Gregory S. Parnell, Christopher M. Smith, Frederick I. Moxley

Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Terrorism Risk
Barry Charles Ezell, Steven P. Bennett, Detlof Von Winterfeldt, John Sokolowski, Andrew J. Collins

How Probabilistic Risk Assessment Can Mislead Terrorism Risk Analysts
Gerald G. Brown, Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr.

A Comparative Analysis of PRA and Intelligent Adversary Methods for Counterterrorism Risk Management
Jason Merrick, Gregory S. Parnel

Agent-Based Simulation for Human-Induced Hazard Analysis
William M. Bulleit, Matthew W. Drewek

PART 2. PREVENTING ATTACKS

Modeling Values for Anti-Terrorism Analysis
Ralph L. Keeney

Identifying and Structuring the Objectives of Terrorists
Gregory L. Keeney, Detlof Von Winterfeldt

A Value Model for Evaluating Homeland Security Decisions
Ralph L. Keeney, Detlof von Winterfeldt

PART 3. COPING WITH ATTACKS IN THE SHORT AND LONG RUNS: EX-POST RISK MANAGEMENT

Adaptive Management: A Paradigm for Remediation of Public Facilities Following a Terrorist Attack
Jeffrey J. Whicker, David R. Janecky, Ted B. Doerr

Analyzing Evacuation Versus Shelter-in-Place Strategies After a Terrorist Nuclear Detonation
Lawrence M. Wein, Youngsoo Choi, Sylvie Denuit

PART 4. APPLICATIONS

CAPPS II: The Foundation of Aviation Security?
Arnold Barnett

A Risk and Economic Analysis of Dirty Bomb Attacks on the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach
H. Rosoff, D. Von Winterfeldt

Optimal Stopping Analysis of a Radiation Detection System to Protect Cities from a Nuclear Terrorist Attack
Michael P. Atkinson, Zheng Cao, Lawrence M. Wein

Risk-Management and Risk-Analysis-Based Decision Tools for Attacks on Electric Power
Jeffrey S. Simonoff, Carlos E. Restrepo, Rae Zimmerman

Risk-Based Decision Support Tools: Protecting Rail-Centered Transit Corridors from Cascading Effects
Greenberg M, Lowrie K, Mayer H, Altiok T

Modeling the Public Health System Response to a Terrorist Event in the Food Supply
Emma Hartnett, Gregory M. Paoli, Donald W. Schaffner

Ranking the Risks from Multiple Hazards in a Small Community
Hua Li, George E. Apostolakis, Joseph Gifun, William VanSchalkwyk, Susan Leite, David Barber

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