Risk Analysis

Cover image for Vol. 34 Issue 10

Edited By: L. Anthony Cox, Jr.

Impact Factor: 1.974

ISI Journal Citation Reports © Ranking: 2013: 7/45 (Social Sciences Mathematical Methods); 15/95 (Mathematics Interdisciplinary Applications)

Online ISSN: 1539-6924

Special Issue: Risk Analysis of Influenza

Risk Analysis of Influenza

Co-Editors: Charles N Haas and L.A. Cox

As this virtual issue is being assembled, a new cluster of H7N9 influenza (“bird flu”) has been emerging in Asia, with (as of April 7, 2013) 21 cases and six deaths in China. While it is too early to tell whether this will emerge as a much larger issue or not, this is a disease that has been with humanity from early in recorded history. Peacock, in discussing a mid-19th century outbreak, noted that European outbreaks dated back to the 13th century, and that what would now be termed pandemics (geographically wide in extent) occurred in 1510, 1557, 1732, 1743, 1782, 1803, and 1837. Probably other widespread outbreaks occurred without recognition due to poor communications and health recognition. Influenza (like food safety and consumer product safety) creates risks that depend on both individual choices/behaviors and public health risk management. This makes the roles of risk communication and perception especially important in coordinating risk management efforts. Furthermore, lessons learned from “natural experiments” surrounding influenza outbreaks may inform responses to such other risks. Risk Analysis is well suited to provide insight into consequence and response to influenza occurrence. Particularly since the 2009 H1N1 (“swine flu”) pandemic, this journal has seen a rise in submissions on all aspects of influenza, including hazard assessment, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, characterization and transmission modeling, and assessment of social responses and consequences. This virtual issue is assembled as a guide to researchers and professionals in understanding and responding to further outbreaks, including the emerging H7N9 cluster, and to assist in directing data-gathering to improve knowledge.
Read the full Introduction to the Special Issue here.

Content Provider: CDC/ Brian Judd
Photo Credit: James Gathany

Co-Editors: Charles N Haas and L.A. Cox

I. Hazard Assessment and Uncertainty Characterization

Critical Review and Uncertainty Analysis of Factors Influencing Influenza Transmission
Rachael M. Jones

An Integrated Model of Infection Risk in a Health-Care Environment
Mark Nicas and Gang Sun

II. Exposure Assessment, Transmission Modeling, and Uncertainty Analysis

Relative Contributions of Four Exposure Pathways to Influenza Infection Risk
Mark Nicas and Rachael M. Jones

Influenza Infection Risk and Predominate Exposure Route: Uncertainty Analysis
Rachael M. Jones and Elodie Adida

A Probabilistic Transmission Dynamic Model to Assess Indoor Airborne Infection Risks
Chung-Min Liao, Chao-Fang Chang and Huang-Min Liang

III. Dose-Response Modeling

Dose-Response Assessment for Influenza A Virus Based on Data Sets of Infection with its Live Attenuated Reassortants
Toru Watanabe, Timothy A. Bartrand, Tatsuo Omura and Charles N. Haas

IV. Individual Risk Perceptions and Responses to Perceived Risks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and Swine Flu

Avian Influenza Risk Perception and Live Poultry Purchase in Guangzhou, China, 2006
Qiuyan Liao, Wendy Wing Tak Lam, Chao Qiang Jiang, Ella Yuk Yi Ho, Yi Min Liu, Wei Sen Zhang and Fielding Richard

Societal Responses to Familiar Versus Unfamiliar Risk: Comparisons of Influenza and SARS in Korea
Seonghoon Hong and Alan Collins

Deriving Behavior Model Parameters from Survey Data: Self-Protective Behavior Adoption During the 2009–2010 Influenza A(H1N1) Pandemic
David P. Durham, Elizabeth A. Casman and Steven M. Albert

Too Scared or Too Capable? Why Do College Students Stay Away from the H1N1 Vaccine?
Z. Janet Yang

A Social-Cognitive Model of Pandemic Influenza H1N1 Risk Perception and Recommended Behaviors in Italy
Gabriele Prati, Luca Pietrantoni and Bruna Zani

V. Public Health Risk Management

Assessing Infection Control Measures for Pandemic Influenza
Lawrence M. Wein and Michael P. Atkinson

The Effect of Mask Use on the Spread of Influenza During a Pandemic
Nicole C. J. Brienen, Aura Timen, Jacco Wallinga, Jim E. Van Steenbergen and Peter F. M. Teunis

A Quantitative Assessment of the Risk for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Introduction into Spain via Legal Trade of Live Poultry
Fernando Sánchez-Vizcaíno, Andrés Perez, Manuel Lainez and José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno

Pandemic Recovery Analysis Using the Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model
Joost R. Santos, Mark J. Orsi and Erik J. Bond

Risk-Based Input-Output Analysis of Influenza Epidemic Consequences on Interdependent Workforce Sectors
Joost R. Santos, Larissa May and Amine El Haimar