[1] Atmospheric, oceanic, and subglacial forcing scenarios from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) project are applied to six three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet models to assess Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity over a 500-year timescale and to inform future modeling and field studies. Results indicate: i) growth with warming, except within low-latitude basins (where inland thickening is outpaced by marginal thinning); ii) mass loss with enhanced sliding (with basins dominated by high driving stresses affected more than basins with low-surface-slope streaming ice); and iii) mass loss with enhanced ice-shelf melting (with changes in West Antarctica dominating the signal due to its marine setting and extensive ice shelves; cf. minimal impact in the Terre Adelie, George V, Oates, and Victoria Land region of East Antarctica). Ice loss due to dynamic changes associated with enhanced sliding and/or sub-shelf melting exceeds the gain due to increased precipitation. Furthermore, differences in results between and within basins as well as the controlling impact of sub-shelf melting on ice dynamics highlight the need for improved understanding of basal conditions, grounding-zone processes, ocean-ice interactions, and the numerical representation of all three.

[1] Wintertime satellite derived ice surface velocities, from 2001 through 2007, suggest an increase in ice velocity in the wet snow zone of Southwest Greenland. We present a thermo-mechanical model to evaluate the influence of surface meltwater runoff on englacial temperatures, via cryo-hydrologic warming (CHW), as a possible mechanism to explain this velocity increase at Sermeq Avannarleq. The model incorporates CHW through a previously published dual-column parameterization. We compare model simulations with (i) CHW active over the entire ice thickness (" base case CHW" ), (ii) CHW active only in the surface 80 m of the ice sheet (" surface CHW" ), and (iii) " no CHW" to represent a traditional thermo-mechanical model. The horizontal extent of CHW is prescribed based on equilibrium line altitude position, and thus incorporates the upstream expansion of the ablation zone over the past decade. The " base case CHW" simulations reproduce the observed increase in inland ice velocity between 2001 and 2007 reasonably well. The " no CHW" and " surface CHW" simulations significantly underestimate observed ice surface velocities in both epochs. The higher ice velocities in the " base case CHW" simulations are attributable to both decreased basal ice viscosities associated with increased basal ice temperatures, and an increase in the extent of basal sliding permitted by temperate bed conditions. Only the temperate bed extent predicted by the " base case CHW" simulation is consistent with independent observations of basal sliding. Based on our sensitivity analysis of CHW, we evaluate alternative explanations for an increase in inland ice velocity, and suggest CHW is the most plausible mechanism.

[1] Experiments have been performed in a large wave tank in order to study the morphodynamics of rip current systems. Both accretive and erosive shore-normal wave conditions were applied, the beach evolving through all the states within the intermediatebeach classification, under the so-called down-state (accretive) and up-state (erosive) morphological transitions. Results show that any prescribed change in the wave conditions drastically increases the rate at which the morphology changes. The surfzone morphology tends toward a steady state when running a given wave climate for a long duration. We quantitatively describe a full down-state sequence characterized by the progressive evolution of an alongshore-uniform bar successively into a crescentic planshape, a bar and rip channel morphology, and a terrace. From the analysis of a large dataset of dense Eulerian measurements and bathymetric surveys, we depict several feedback mechanisms associated with wave-driven rip current circulation, wave nonlinearities and the seabed evolution. At first, a positive feedback mechanism drives a rapid increase in the rate of morphological change, beach three-dimensionality and rip intensity. By the time the sandbar evolves into a bar and rip morphology a negative feedback mechanism, characterized by a decaying beach change rate and an increasing beach alongshore uniformity, overwhelms the former mechanism. An erosive sequence characterized by both an overall offshore bar migration and an increase in beach three-dimensionality is also described.

[1] Reduced-order models remain essential tools for meander modelling, especially for processes at large length scales and long time scales, probabilistic simulations, rapid assessments or when input data are scarce or uncertain. Present reduced order meander models either consider their dependent variables as small amplitude variations compared to a basic state (linearity) or as varying gradually in a spatial sense (gradual variation). In a prequel, [7] derived a non-linear reduced-order hydrodynamic model without curvature restrictions and showed that linearity or gradual curvature variations assumptions do not hold in strongly curved channels. Moreover, in strongly curved channels, a non-linear feedback mechanism causes the secondary flow strength to be smaller than its linear mild curvature equivalent. In the limit of mild amplitude variations and mild-curvature, their non-linear meander flow model simplifies to a well-known linear formulation. The present paper extends this nonlinear modelling to the bed morphology in strongly curved bends, making use of Exner's sediment conservation principle. Furthermore, the model quantifying the relative influence of the downslope gravitational force is refined by considering non-linear effects. The coupled non-linear flow and bed morphology model yields satisfactory results for the bed topography, whereas the corresponding linear model strongly overpredicts the magnitude of the transverse bed slope. Analysis of the forcing mechanisms indicate that this erroneous behavior is caused by an overestimation of the upslope drag force due to the secondary flow.

[1] The Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) effort explores the sensitivity of the current generation of ice sheet models to external forcing to gain insight into the potential future contribution to sea-level from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. All participating models simulated the ice sheet response to three types of external forcings: a change in oceanic condition, a warmer atmospheric environment, and enhanced basal lubrication. Here, an analysis of the spatial response of the Greenland ice sheet is presented and the impact of model physics and spin-up on the projections is explored. Although the modeled responses are not always homogeneous, consistent spatial trends emerge from the ensemble analysis, indicating distinct vulnerabilities of the Greenland ice sheet. There are clear response patterns associated with each forcing, and a similar mass loss at the full ice sheet scale will result in different mass losses at the regional scale, as well as distinct thickness changes over the ice sheet. All forcings lead to an increased mass loss for the coming centuries, with increased basal lubrication and warmer ocean conditions affecting mainly outlet glaciers, while the impacts of atmospheric forcings affect the whole ice sheet.

[1] Geophysical mapping and coring of the central Arctic Ocean seafloor provide evidence for repeated occurrence of ice sheet/ice shelf complexes during previous glacial periods. Several ridges and bathymetric highs shallower than present water depths of ~1000 m show signs of erosion from deep drafting (armadas of) icebergs, which originated from thick outlet glaciers and ice shelves. Mapped glacigenic landforms and dates of cored sediments suggest that the largest ice shelf complex was confined to the Amerasian sector of the Arctic Ocean during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6. However, the spatial extent of ice shelves can not be well reconstructed from occasional groundings on bathymetric highs. Therefore, we apply a statistical approach to provide independent support for an extensive MIS 6 ice shelf complex, which previously was inferred only from interpretation of geophysical and geological data. Specifically, we assess whether this ice shelf complex comprises a likely source of the deep draft icebergs responsible for the mapped scourmarks. The statistical modeling is based on exploiting relations between contemporary Antarctic ice shelves and their local physical environments, and the assumption that Arctic Ocean MIS 6 ice shelves scale similarly. Analysing ice thickness data along the calving front of contemporary ice shelves, a peak over threshold method is applied to determine sources of deep-drafting icebergs in the Arctic Ocean MIS 6 ice shelf complex. This approach is novel to modeling Arctic paleoglacial configurations. Predicted extreme calving front drafts match observed deep-draft iceberg scours if the ice shelf complex is sufficiently large.

[1] Patterns of riparian hydraulic gradients and stream-groundwater exchange in headwater catchments provide the hydrologic context for important ecological processes. Although the controls are relatively well understood, their dynamics during periods of hydrologic change is not. We investigate riparian hydraulic gradients over three different time scales in two steep, forested, headwater catchments in Oregon (WS01 and WS03) to determine the potential controls of reach-scale valley slope and cross-sectional valley geometry. Groundwater and stream stage data collected at high spatial and temporal resolutions over a period encompassing a 1.25-year storm and subsequent seasonal baseflow recession indicate that hydraulic gradients in both riparian aquifers exhibit strong persistence of down-valley dominance. Responses to rainfall do not support the simple conceptual models of increased riparian hydraulic gradient toward streams. Hydraulic gradient response in WS01 to both the seasonal baseflow recession and the storm suggested the potential for increased stream-groundwater exchange, but there was less evidence for this in WS03. Results from four constant-rate tracer injections in each stream showed a high baseline level of exchange overall, and both a slight seasonal increase (WS01) and slight decrease (WS03) in the riparian intrusion of tracer-labeled stream water as stream discharge receded. These results indicate that steep headwater valley floors host extensive stream water exchange and very little change in the water table gradients over 3 orders of magnitude of stream discharge.

[1] Understanding specific pathways for sand transport in the lower reaches of large rivers, including the Mississippi, is a key for addressing multiple significant geologic problems, such as delta building and discharge to the oceans, and for environmental restoration efforts in deltaic environments threatened by rising sea levels. Field studies were performed in the Mississippi River 75–100 km upstream of the Gulf of Mexico outlet in 2010–2011 to examine sand transport phenomena in the tidally affected river channel over a range of discharges. Methods included mapping bottom morphology (multibeam sonar), cross-sectional and longitudinal measurements of water column velocity and acoustic backscatter, suspended sediment sampling, and channel-bed sampling. Substantial interaction was observed between the flow conditions in the river (boundary shear stress), channel-bed morphology (size and extent of sandy bedforms), and bed material sand transport (quantity, transport mode, and spatial distribution). A lateral shift was observed in the region of maximum bed material transport from deep to shallow areas of subaqueous sand bars with increasing water discharge. Bed material was transported both in traction and in suspension at these water discharges, and we posit that the downriver flux of sand grains is composed of both locally- and drainage basin-sourced material, with distinct transport pathways and relations to flow conditions. We provide suggestions for the optimal design and operation of planned river diversion projects.

[1] Understanding the mechanisms governing temporal variability of ice stream flow remains one of the major barriers to developing accurate models of ice sheet dynamics and ice-climate interactions. Here we analyze a simple model of ice stream hydrology coupled to ice flow dynamics and including drainage and basal cooling processes. Analytic and numerical results from this model indicate that there are two major modes of ice stream behavior: steady-streaming and binge-purge variability. The steady-streaming mode arises from friction-stabilized subglacial meltwater production, which may also activate and interact with subglacial drainage. The binge-purge mode arises from a sufficiently cold environment sustaining successive cycles of thinning-induced basal cooling and stagnation. Low prescribed temperature at the ice surface and weak geothermal heating typically lead to binge-purge behavior, while warm ice surface temperature and strong geothermal heating will tend to produce steady-streaming behavior. Model results indicate that modern Siple Coast ice streams reside in the binge-purge parameter regime near a subcritical Hopf bifurcation to the steady-streaming mode. Numerical experiments exhibit hysteresis in ice stream variability as the surface temperature is varied by several degrees. Our simple model simulates Heinrich event-like variability in a hypothetical Hudson Strait ice stream including dynamically determined purge time scale, till freezing and basal cooling during the binge phase. These findings are an improvement on studies of both modern and paleo-ice stream variability and provide a framework for interpreting complex ice flow models.

[1] A local formulation of the sediment flux on a hillslope describes the flux as a unique function of local hillslope conditions at any contour position x, whereas a nonlocal formulation must take into account nonlocal (upslope or downslope) conditions that influence the flux at x. Local formulations are reasonable when particle motions involve small length scales associated with localized bioturbation of the soil column or with proximal surface transport such as rain splash. Nonlocal formulations may be more appropriate in steeplands where patchy, intermittent motions involve large travel distances, mostly over the surface. Once sediment motions are initiated, the disentrainment process determines the distribution of particle travel distances, which, in turn, forms the basis of nonlocal formulations that involve a convolution of hillslope surface conditions, for example, the land-surface slope. The kernel in the convolution integral, which weights the effect of land-surface conditions (e.g. slope) at all positions upslope or downslope of x, derives from the formulation of the disentrainment rate, and characterizes whether particle travel distances depend on conditions at the position where motions originate, or vary asparticles experience changing surface conditions during their downslope motions. If hillslope properties controlling transport (e.g. surface slope) are defined or measured at a specified resolution, then motions smaller than this resolution cannot be attributed to these properties resolved at a smaller scale. In essence, the relative importance of local and nonlocal transport depends on the scale of particle motions compared to the relevant scale of hillslope properties that drive transport.

[1] A dynamic model for the morphological evolution of channels and unvegetated tidal flats is proposed. Channels and tidal flats are schematized as two reservoirs that exchange sediment through the tidal dispersion mechanism, which stems from the presence of a tidal exchange flow and spatial gradients in sediment concentration. The reference concentration in each reservoir is determined by the shear stress associated to tidal currents and surface wind waves, which are a function of the geometry of the system. A simplified procedure to compute flow partition between channels and tidal flats is developed and compared to the numerical solution of the shallow water equations, showing good agreement. In absence of wind waves, tidal flats reach a stable dynamic vertical equilibrium close to mean high water level, resembling a creek-marsh morphology. For intermediate wind conditions, an additional stable dynamic vertical equilibrium, characterized by a channel flanked by tidal flats close to mean low water, arises. Such equilibrium stems from a sediment exchange dynamic balance between current-dominated channels and wave-dominated tidal flats, and it likely represents the morphological configuration of most tidal flats. Waves associated with intense winds suppress the channelization process. The model suggests that tidal flat elevation is primarily controlled by waves and can be decoupled from channels. Channel depth is also indirectly controlled by waves, through the influence of tidal flat elevation on channel hydrodynamics. Finally, the model predicts that variations in environmental parameters, such as sea level, storminess, and sediment availability, can induce catastrophic morphological shifts.

[1] Steep streams are a major portion of channel networks and provide a link to transport sediment from hillslopes to lower gradient rivers. Despite their importance, key unknowns remain, perhaps foremost of which is evaluating in steep streams empirical laws for fluvial sediment transport developed for low-gradient rivers. To address this knowledge gap, we painted sediment in situ over three years to monitor incipient sediment motion and sediment patch development in five small (drainage areas of 0.04–2 km²) and steep (slopes of 5 – 37%) tributaries of Elder Creek, California, USA. We found that channel beds organized into size-sorted sediment patches which displayed active fluvial transport of gravel annually, consistent year-to-year patch median-grain sizes, partial transport of bed material, and significantly higher values of critical Shields stress for incipient sediment motion compared to that observed for lower gradient rivers. The high critical Shields stresses (up to 0.5 for the median grain size) agree within a factor of ~3 to theoretical predictions which account for slope-dependent hydraulics, grain hiding, and sediment patches. For grains of approximately the same size as the roughness length scale, slope-dependent hydraulics and bed patchiness are the dominant controls on critical Shields stress values, while grain hiding is important for grains larger or smaller than the roughness length scale. Form drag exists in our monitored tributaries, but has a smaller influence than the above effects. Our field observations show fluvial processes contribute to sediment mobilization in steep channels which are often considered to be dominated by debris flows.

[1] [1] Shoreline erosion is a natural trend along most sandy coastlines. Humans often respond to shoreline erosion with beach nourishment to maintain coastal property values. Locally extending the shoreline through nourishment alters alongshore sediment transport and changes shoreline dynamics in adjacent coastal regions. If left unmanaged, sandy coastlines can have spatially complex or simple patterns of erosion due to the relationship of large-scale morphology and the local wave climate. Using a numerical model that simulates spatially decentralized and locally optimal nourishment decisions characteristic of much of U.S East Coast beach management we find that human erosion intervention does not simply reflect the alongshore erosion pattern. Spatial interactions generate feedbacks in economic and physical variables that lead to widespread emergence of " free riders" and " suckers" with subsequent inequality in the alongshore distribution of property value. Along cuspate coastlines, such as those found along the U.S. Southeast Coast, these long-term property value differences span an order of magnitude. Results imply that spatially decentralized management of nourishment can lead to property values that are divorced from spatial erosion signals; this management approach is unlikely to be optimal.

[1] The tensile fracture of heterogeneous earth materials such as snow, ice and rocks can be characterized by two fracture parameters–the fracture toughness and the fracture process zone length. The latter length scale characterizes the zone of microcracking surrounding a crack tip in a heterogeneous material. For alpine snow, these two fracture parameters influence the release dimensions and thus destructive potential of slab avalanches. In general it is difficult to determine these parameters concurrently, and most experimental methods are based on first-order scaling laws that have considerable errors unless very large test specimens are used. Here, we introduce a simple experimental method based on a higher-order quasi-brittle scaling law that has never been applied to snow nor any other geophysical material. We conducted hundreds of beam bending experiments using natural cohesive snow samples to produce the most comprehensive measurements to date of the tensile fracture toughness and effective process zone length of snow. We also adopt a new penetration resistance gauge to index the fracture toughness data, addressing a longstanding need for better proxy measurements to characterize snow structure. The peak penetration resistance met by a thin blade proved better than the bulk snow density for predicting fracture toughness, a finding that will improve field predictions and facilitate comparisons of results across studies. The tensile fracture process zone, previously a highly uncertain length scale related to avalanche fractures, is shown to be about 5–10 times the snow grain size, implying nonlinear fracture scaling for the majority of avalanches.

[1] We analyze frontal dynamics of dilute powder snow avalanches sustained by rapid blow-out behind the front. Such material injection arises as a weakly cohesive snow cover is fluidized by the very pore pressure gradient that the particle cloud induces within the snowpack. We model cloud fluid mechanics as a potential flow consisting of a traveling source of denser fluid thrust into a uniform airflow. Stability analysis of a mass balance involving snow cover and powder cloud yields relations among scouring depth, frontal height, speed, mixed-mean density and impact pressure when the frontal region achieves a stable growth rate. We compare predictions with field measurements, show that powder clouds cannot reach steady frontal speed on a uniform snowpack with constant cloud width, and derive a criterion for cloud ignition. Because static pressure is continuous across the mean air-cloud interface and deviatoric stresses are negligible, frontal acceleration is insensitive to local slope, but instead arises from a deficit of flow-induced suction in the wake. We calculate how far a powder cloud travels until its frontal mixed-mean density becomes stable, and show how topographic spread can hasten its collapse.

[1] Landscape evolution is controlled by the development and organization of drainage basins. As a landscape evolves, drainage reorganization events can occur via river capture or piracy, whereby one river basin grows at the expense of another. The river downstream of a capture location will generate a transient topographic response as the added water discharge increases sediment transport and erosion efficiency. This erosional response will propagate upstream through both the captured and original river basins. Here we focus on quantifying the impact of drainage reorganization along the Rhine/Aare river system (~45,000 km²) during the late Pliocene/early Pleistocene, where gravel remnants indicate total incision of ~ 650 m during the last ~ 4.2 My in the region of the recent Aare-Rhine confluence. We develop a numerical model of drainage capture to quantify the range of possible magnitudes of erosion and the transient river response resulting from the reorganization of the Rhine River. The model accounts for both fluvial incision and sediment transport. Our model estimates 400–800 m of river elevation change (lowering profiles) during the last ~ 4 My due to river capture events, providing an important component to the recent exhumation budget of the Swiss Alpine Foreland. The model indicates a rapid response to capture events (re-equilibration timescale of ~1 My). The predicted incision magnitudes are consistent with incision measured from the elevation of Pliocene and early Pleistocene river gravels, suggesting that across northern Switzerland a significant amount of incision can be explained by drainage reorganization.

[1] Saltation of bedload particles on bedrock surfaces is important for landscape evolution and bedrock incision in steep landscapes. However, few studies have investigated saltation in bedrock channels where, unlike alluvial channels, the bed-roughness height and the sediment size may be independent. To address this data gap, we measured the saltation hop height, hop length, and velocity of gravel saltating over a planar bed using 80-160 readings from high-speed photography and direct measurements. Two separate dimensional analyses are used: one leading to a bed-shear-stress scaling and another leading to a Froude-number (Fr) scaling. Our new saltation data coupled with numerous data from previous studies suggest that both shear-stress and Fr-scaling analyses are valid in characterizing bedload saltation dynamics with bed roughness ranging from smooth to alluvial beds. However, the Fr-approach has the advantages that (1) there is no need to estimate a critical Shields stress (), which alone can vary up to two orders of magnitude (e.g., 0.001 – 0.1) due to changes in relative bed roughness and slope, and (2) the Fr-based scaling fits the saltation dataset better in a least-squared sense. Results show that the saltation velocity of bedload is independent of grain density and grain size, and linearly proportional to flow velocity. Saltation height has a non-linear dependence on grain size. Saltation length increases primarily with flow velocity and it is inversely proportional to submerged specific density. Our results suggest that either or bed roughness coefficient must be properly estimated to yield accurate results in saltation-abrasion models.

[1] Mechanistic models for sediment transport on hillslopes are needed for applications ranging from landscape evolution to debris-flow hazards. Progress has been made for soil-mantled landscapes; however, little is known about sediment production and transport in bedrock landscapes that often maintain a patchy soil mantle even though slopes exceed the angle of repose. Herein, we investigate the hypothesis that patchy soil cover is stable on steep slopes due to local roughness such as vegetation dams that trap sediment upslope. To quantify local sediment storage, we developed a new theory and tested it against tilt-table experiments. Results show that trapped sediment volume scales with the cube of dam width. Where the dam width is less than about fifty grain diameters, particle force chains appear to enhance stability resulting in greater trapped volumes and sediment-pile slopes that exceed the angle of repose. Trapped volumes are greatest for hillslopes that just exceed the friction slope and are independent of hillslope gradient for gradients greater than about twice the friction slope. For neighboring dams spaced less than about five grain diameters apart, grain bridging results in a single sediment pile that is larger than the sum of individual piles. This work provides a mass-conserving framework for quantifying sediment storage and non-local transport in bedrock landscapes. Results may explain the rapid increase in sediment yield following wildfire in steep terrain in the absence of rainfall; as sediment dams are incinerated, particles become gravitationally unstable and move rapidly downslope as dry ravel.

[1] One of the key processes for the formation of deltas and their fluvial networks is the deposition of mouth bars in front of prograding distributaries. Waves influence mouth bar growth, but it is not clear how and to what extent. Towards this end we conduct a modeling study on deltas forming in sheltered bays, where waves are locally generated and both longshore currents and surf zone are absent. We focus on the simplified case of a homopycnal river plume subject to frontal wave attack, and we begin by isolating the effects of waves on jet spreading. An analytical model for the hydrodynamic interaction between incoming waves and a turbulent expanding jet is developed and tested with the numerical model Delft3D coupled to the wave model SWAN. Both the analytical model and Delft3D predict that incoming surface gravity waves increase the spreading of the jet and the interaction between wave and current boundary layers causes an increase in bottom friction. To investigate how waves influence mouth bar morphodynamics, a set of numerical simulations is run with Delft3D-SWAN utilizing a geometry and wave characteristics typical of sheltered bays. Our numerical results show that in the presence of waves, mouth bars form up to 35% closer to the river mouth and 40% faster when compared to cases without waves. The distance from the river mouth to the stagnated mouth bar decreases with increasing wave height and wave period. The timescale of bar formation is inversely proportional to wave height and directly proportional to wave period. Our modeling study suggests that wave influence on mouth bar growth is complex. Small waves, like the ones modeled here, promote mouth bar formation via increased jet spreading and faster formation time, which in turn should create deltas with more distributary channels. On the other hand, large waves suppress mouth bar formation, as seen in other studies, leading to fewer distributary channels.

[1] Dynamic and thermodynamic regimes of ice shelves experiencing weak (≲1 m yr⁻¹) to strong (~10 m yr⁻¹) basal melting in cold (bottom temperature close to the in situ freezing point) and warm oceans (bottom temperature more than half of a degree warmer than the in situ freezing point) are investigated using a one-dimensional coupled ice/ocean model complemented with a newly-derived analytic expression for the steady-state temperature distribution in ice shelves. This expression suggests the existence of a basal thermal boundary layer with thickness inversely proportional to the basal melt rate. Model simulations show that ice shelves afloat in warm ocean waters have significantly colder internal ice temperatures than those that float in cold waters. Our results indicate that in steady-states, the mass balance of ice shelves experiencing strong and weak melting is controlled by different processes: in ice shelves with strong melting it is a balance between ice advection and basal melting, and in ice shelves with weak melting it is a balance between ice advection and deformation. Sensitivity simulations show that ice shelves in cold and warm oceans respond differently to increase of the ocean heat content. Ice shelves in cold waters are more sensitive to warming of the ocean bottom waters, meanwhile ice shelves in warm waters are more sensitive to shallowing of the depth of the thermocline.

[1] River incision over geologic time scales can be a valuable indicator of regional surface uplift. However, extracting the timing of surface uplift relative to the onset of incision is complicated by changes in precipitation commensurate with topographic development. Evidence of large-scale river incision on the flanks of the Andean plateau has been cited in support of a rapid and recent surface uplift event. Recent climate modeling studies demonstrate large magnitudes of regional climate change associated with surface uplift of the Andes, which may have influenced river incision processes. Here we present an analysis of mid-Miocene (16 Ma) to Present river incision of the southwest Peruvian Ocoña River. A Monte Carlo approach with ~1.6 × 10⁵ different simulations is used to explore the range of surface uplift and paleoclimatehistories that are compatible with the modern river profile and geological constraints on the incision timing and magnitude. A range of channel properties, including the erodibility coefficient and erosion threshold, are considered. Results indicate that deep canyon incision on the plateau flanks may not be as diagnostic of rapid surface uplift as previously thought. More specifically, the evolution of the Ocoña River is consistent with local plateau elevations of 1-3 km at 16 Ma, and either a steady or punctuated uplift of 1.5-3.5 km since then. The range of acceptable uplift histories is sensitive to the long-term magnitude andtemporal evolution of precipitation. Similar paleoprecipitation changes are expected to have modified river profile evolution elsewhere in the Andes.

[1] Wind erosion is a significant environmental problem that removes soil resources from sensitive ecosystems and contributes to air pollution. In regions of shallow groundwater, friable (puffy) soils are maintained through capillary action, surface evaporation of solute rich soil moisture, and protection from mobilization by groundwater dependent grasses and shrubs. When a reduction in vegetation cover occurs through any disturbance process there is potential for aeolian transport and dust emission. We find that as mean gap size between vegetation elements scaled by vegetation height increases, total horizontal aeolian sediment flux increasesand explains 58% of the variation in total horizontal aeolian sediment flux. We also test a probabilistic model of wind erosion based on gap size between vegetation elements scaled by vegetation height (the Okin model) [Okin, 2008], which predicts measured total horizontal aeolian sediment flux more closely than another commonly used model based on the average plant area observed in profile (Raupach model) [Raupach et al., 1993]. The threshold shear velocity of bare soil appears to increase as gap size between vegetation elements scaled by vegetation height increases, reflecting either surface armoring or reduced interaction between the groundwater capillary zone and surface sediments. This work advances understanding of the importance of measuring gap size between vegetation elements scaled by vegetation heightfor empirically estimating Q and for structuring process-based models of desert wind erosion in groundwater dependent vegetation.

[1] Due, in part, to the challenging environment of Earth's high-latitude regions, available information on cold climate effects on aeolian processes in these areas remains limited. Data from these areas, however, provide insight into the physics of sediment transport by wind and the controls on erosive winds in proximity to ice caps and topographic influences. This study presents a 2 year record of meteorological, saltation activity, horizontal saltation flux, and particle size distribution data from four sites in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica, 2008 to 2010. Saltation measurements revealed daily and seasonal patterns with spring and summer sediment transport events occurring between 09:00 and 24:00 hours due to thermally generated winds. Fall and winter events occur at any time of day with the strongest associated with foehn winds. Threshold wind speed at 4.2 m in all seasons for all locations was ≈10 m s⁻¹. Saltation occurred in the temperature range −40°C to +5°C. Westerly winds in the fall/winter and easterly winds in spring/summer are associated with the majority of transport events. The sand in transport is mainly 250 to 500 μm in diameter and poorly sorted. The integrated saltation flux varies over three orders of magnitude among the sites, with the lowest mean flux recorded in the Taylor Valley (2.9 kg m⁻¹ day⁻¹) and the highest in the eastern Victoria Valley (2271 kg m⁻¹ day⁻¹) for 24 hours of continuous saltation. The percentage of time saltation active at these locations annually is ≈2%, ≈4%, and ≈13%, respectively, for the Victoria, Taylor, and Wright Valleys.

[1] Landscape evolution is closely related to soil formation. Quantitative modeling of the dynamics of soils and landscapes should therefore be integrated. This paper presents a model, named Model for Integrated Landscape Evolution and Soil Development (MILESD), which describes the interaction between pedogenetic and geomorphic processes. This mechanistic model includes the most significant soil formation processes, ranging from weathering to clay translocation, and combines these with the lateral redistribution of soil particles through erosion and deposition. The model is spatially explicit and simulates the vertical variation in soil horizon depth as well as basic soil properties such as texture and organic matter content. In addition, sediment export and its properties are recorded. This model is applied to a 6.25 km² area in the Werrikimbe National Park, Australia, simulating soil development over a period of 60,000 years. Comparison with field observations shows how the model accurately predicts trends in total soil thickness along a catena. Soil texture and bulk density are predicted reasonably well, with errors of the order of 10%, however, field observations show a much higher organic carbon content than predicted. At the landscape scale, different scenarios with varying erosion intensity result only in small changes of landscape-averaged soil thickness, while the response of the total organic carbon stored in the system is higher. Rates of sediment export show a highly nonlinear response to soil development stage and the presence of a threshold, corresponding to the depletion of the soil reservoir, beyond which sediment export drops significantly.

[1] The topology of river networks has been a subject of intense research in hydro-geomorphology, with special attention to self-similar (SS) structures that allow one to develop concise representations and scaling frameworks for hydrological fluxes. Tokunaga self-similar (TSS) networks present a particularly popular two-parameter class of self-similar models, commonly accepted in hydrology but rarely tested rigorously. In this paper we (1) present a statistical framework for testing the TSS assumption and estimating the Tokunaga parameters; (2) present an improved method for estimating the Horton ratios using the Tokunaga parameters; (3) evaluate the proposed testing and estimation frameworks using synthetic TSS networks with a broad range of parameters; (4) perform self-similar analysis of 408 river networks of maximum order Ω ≥ 6 from 50 catchments across US; and (e) use the Tokunaga parameters as discriminatory metrics to explore climate effects on network topology. We find that the TSS assumption cannot be rejected in the majority of the examined river networks. The theoretical expression for the Horton ratios based on the estimated Tokunaga parameters in the TSS networks provides a significantly better approximation to the true ratios than the conventional linear regression approach. A correlation analysis shows that the Tokunaga parameter c, which determines the degree of side-branching, exhibits significant dependence on the hydroclimatic variables of the basin: storm frequency, storm duration, and mean annual rainfall, offering the possibility of relating climate to landscape dissection. While other possible physical controls have been neglected in this study, this result is intriguing and warrants further analysis.

[1] Low-elevation bare intertidal flats and high-lying vegetated marshes are the main components of intertidal areas of estuaries, deltas and coastal embayments. Large-scale transitions between them have been reported worldwide. Because vegetated marshes provide significant services to coastal societies, predicting transitions between vegetated and unvegetated states is of widespread importance. Previous theoretical and modeling work highlighted the potential bistable nature of intertidal elevations, with low-elevation bare flats and high-elevation vegetated marshes being two alternative stable states. However, empirical evidence of this bistable condition is limited. In this study, we tested empirically the hypothesis that bare flats and vegetated marshes can be considered as alternative stable landscape states with the occurrence of rapid catastrophic shifts between them. We analyzed historical records of intertidal elevation surveys and aerial pictures from the macro-tidal current-dominated Western Scheldt estuary (SW Netherlands). We found (1) a bimodal distribution of intertidal elevations corresponding to either a completely bare state or a densely vegetated state. (2) The shift from bare to vegetated state is accompanied with a relatively rapid shift in elevation, i.e. the mean accretion rate during the shift is 2 to 8 times larger than during the equilibrium state. (3) A threshold elevation could be identified above which the shift from bare to vegetated state has a high chance to occur. Hence, our results demonstrate the abrupt non-linear shift between low-lying bare flats and high-elevation vegetated marshes, suggesting that the occurrence of catastrophic shifts between alternative stable states is indeed a potential mechanism in intertidal systems.

[1] Saturated crevasses occur in local depressions within the shear margins of Jakobshavn Isbræ at inflections in the ice stream's flow direction. Spatio-temporal variability of seven distinctive saturated crevasse groups was examined during the 2007 melt season. The area of saturated crevasses reached its maximum extent, ~1.8 km², in early July, and remained largely constant until early August. Filling rates are correlated with regional melt production, while drainage rates are highly correlated with areal extent. Estimates on potential drainage volume from the largest crevasse system are ~9.23 × 10⁻³ km³ ± 2.15 × 10⁻⁸ km³ and ~ 4.92 × 10⁻² km³ ± 3.58 × 10⁻⁸ km³, respectively, over a 16 day interval and are more than required for a distributed basal hydrologic system across this area to temporarily flood bedrock obstacles believed to control basal sliding. Future drainage events, likely extending farther inland with warming, could result in enhanced lateral mass discharge into the ice stream, with implications for the dynamic evolution of the entire basin.

[1] Timber harvesting by clear cutting is known to impose environmental impacts, including severe disturbance of the soil hydraulic properties which intensify the frequency and magnitude of surface runoff and soil erosion. However, it remains unanswered if harvest areas act as sources or sinks for runoff and soil erosion and whether such behavior operates in a steady state or evolves through time. For this purpose, 92 small-scale rainfall simulations of different intensities were carried out under pine plantation conditions and on two clear-cut harvest areas of different age. Nonparametrical Random Forest statistical models were set up to quantify the impact of environmental variables on the hydrological and erosion response. Regardless of the applied rainfall intensity, runoff always initiated first and yielded most under plantation cover. Counter to expectations, infiltration rates increased after logging activities. Once a threshold rainfall intensity of 20 mm/h was exceeded, the younger harvest area started to act as a source for both runoff and erosion after connectivity was established, whereas it remained a sink under lower applied rainfall intensities. The results suggest that the impact of microtopography on surface runoff connectivity and water-repellent properties of the topsoil act as first-order controls for the hydrological and erosion processes in such environments. Fast rainfall-runoff response, sediment-discharge-hystereses, and enhanced postlogging groundwater recharge at catchment scale support our interpretation. At the end, we show the need to account for nonstationary hydrological and erosional behavior of harvest areas, a fact previously unappreciated in predictive models.

[1] Many geomorphic studies assume that bedrock geology is not a first-order control on landscape form in order to isolate drivers of geomorphic change (e.g., climate or tectonics). Yet underlying geology may influence the efficacy of soil production and sediment transport on hillslopes. We performed quantitative analysis of LiDAR digital terrain models to examine the topographic form of hillslopes in two distinct lithologies in the Feather River catchment in northern California, a granodiorite pluton and metamorphosed volcanics. The two sites, separated by <2 km and spanning similar elevations, were assumed to have similar climatic histories and are experiencing a transience in landscape evolution characterized by a propagating incision wave in response to accelerated surface uplift c. 5 Ma. Responding to increased incision rates, hillslopes in granodiorite tend to have morphology similar to model predictions for steady state hillslopes, suggesting that they adjust rapidly to keep pace with the incision wave. By contrast, hillslopes in metavolcanics exhibit high gradients but lower hilltop curvature indicative of ongoing transient adjustment to incision. We used existing erosion rate data and the curvature of hilltops proximal to the main channels (where hillslopes have most likely adjusted to accelerated erosion rates) to demonstrate that the sediment transport coefficient is higher in granodiorite (8.8 m² ka⁻¹) than in metavolcanics (4.8 m² ka⁻¹). Hillslopes in both lithologies get shorter (i.e., drainage density increases) with increasing erosion rates.

[1] Characterization of three-dimensional (3D) airflow remains elusive within a variety of environments and is particularly challenging over complex dune topography. Previous work examining airflow over and in the lee of dunes has been restricted to two-dimensional studies and has concentrated on dune shapes containing angle of repose lee sides only. However, the presence of vegetation in coastal dunes creates topographic differences and irregular shapes that interfere with flow separation at the crest and significantly modify lee-side airflow patterns and potential transport. This paper presents the first 3D field characterization of airflow patterns at the lee side of a subaerial dune. Flow information was obtained using an array of 3D ultrasonic anemometers deployed over a beach surface during seven offshore wind events. Data were used to measure cross-shore and alongshore lee-side airflow patterns using the three dimensions of the wind vector. Distances to re-attachment were similar to previous studies, but the range of transverse incident wind directions resulting in flow separation (0+/−35°) was almost twice that previously reported (0+/−20°). Airflow reversal took place with winds as slow as 1 m s⁻¹. Transverse offshore winds generated areas of opposing wind directions both within the reversed zone and beyond re-attachment, contrary to consistent deflection in only one direction found in transverse desert dunes. Patterns of flow convergence-divergence have been reported in fluvial studies. However, while convergence was associated with weak reversal in fluvial settings, it appeared to be related to strong flow reversal here and could be produced by pressure differentials at the dune crest.

[1] To investigate the timescales of regolith formation on hillslopes with contrasting topographic aspect, we measured U-series isotopes in regolith profiles from two hillslopes (north facing versus south facing) within the east-west trending Shale Hills catchment in Pennsylvania. This catchment is developed entirely on the Fe-rich, Silurian Rose Hill gray shale. Hillslopes exhibit a topographic asymmetry: The north-facing hillslope has an average slope gradient of ~20°, slightly steeper than the south-facing hillslope (~15°). The regolith samples display significant U-series disequilibrium resulting from shale weathering. Based on the U-series data, the rates of regolith production on the two ridgetops are indistinguishable (40 ± 22 versus 45 ± 12 m/Ma). However, when downslope positions are compared, the regolith profiles on the south-facing hillslope are characterized by faster regolith production rates (50 ± 15 to 52 ± 15 m/Ma) and shorter durations of chemical weathering (12 ± 3 to 16 ± 5 ka) than those on the north-facing hillslope (17 ± 14 to 18 ± 13 m/Ma and 39 ± 20 to 43 ± 20 ka). The south-facing hillslope is also characterized by faster chemical weathering rates inferred from major element chemistry, despite lower extents of chemical depletion. These results are consistent with the influence of aspect on regolith formation at Shale Hills; we hypothesize that aspect affects such variables as temperature, moisture content, and evapotranspiration in the regolith zone, causing faster chemical weathering and regolith formation rates on the south-facing side of the catchment. The difference in microclimate between these two hillslopes is inferred to have been especially significant during the periglacial period that occurred at Shale Hills at least ~15 ka before present. At that time, the erosion rates may also have been different from those observed today, perhaps denuding the south-facing hillslope of regolith but not quite stripping the north-facing hillslope. An analysis of hillslope evolution and response timescales with a linear mass transport model shows that the current landscape at Shale Hills is not in geomorphologic steady state (i.e., so-called dynamic equilibrium) but rather is likely still responding to the climate shift from the Holocene periglacial to the modern, temperate conditions.

[1] Climate change as projected by contemporary general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) will have a great impact on high latitude and high mountain permafrost. A process-based one-dimensional permafrost model is used to evaluate the sensitivity of two characteristic alpine permafrost sites to changes in climate for a 110 year time period starting 1991 and ending 2100 using output time series of six different GCM-RCM model chains. Statistical analysis of the RCM climate variables and output of the impact model has been conducted to gain insight into the sensitivity of the active layer to changes in climatic conditions. Strong sensitivity to climate change was found for the active layer thickness (ALT) at Schilthorn, which increased by up to 100% before most of the models pointed to a degradation of the permafrost around the year 2020. The sensitivity of the ALT at the rock glacier site Murtèl is less pronounced; permafrost degradation is slower and sets in only around 2070. At both sites, the thermal evolution is linked to an increase in unfrozen water content within the permafrost body. Multiple linear regression analysis shows a strong model dependency of ALT on ice content and summer soil surface temperatures and to a less significant degree on snow cover timing and duration. The ALT at Schilthorn is influenced by the ALT of the preceding year, while at Murtèl, the ALT is influenced by the ALT of up to 15 preceding years.

[1] Feedbacks among vegetation dynamics, pedogenesis, and topographic development affect the “critical zone”—the living filter for Earth's hydrologic, biogeochemical, and rock/sediment cycles. Assessing the importance of such feedbacks, which may be particularly pronounced in water-limited systems, remains a fundamental interdisciplinary challenge. The sky islands of southern Arizona offer an unusually well-defined natural experiment involving such feedbacks because mean annual precipitation varies by a factor of five over distances of approximately 10 km in areas of similar rock type (granite) and tectonic history. Here we compile high-resolution, spatially distributed data for Effective Energy and Mass Transfer (EEMT: the energy available to drive bedrock weathering), above-ground biomass, soil thickness, hillslope-scale topographic relief, and drainage density in two such mountain ranges (Santa Catalina: SCM; Pinaleño: PM). Strong correlations exist among vegetation-soil-topography variables, which vary nonlinearly with elevation, such that warm, dry, low-elevation portions of these ranges are characterized by relatively low above-ground biomass, thin soils, minimal soil organic matter, steep slopes, and high drainage densities; conversely, cooler, wetter, higher elevations have systematically higher biomass, thicker organic-rich soils, gentler slopes, and lower drainage densities. To test if eco-pedo-geomorphic feedbacks drive this pattern, we developed a landscape evolution model that couples pedogenesis and topographic development over geologic time scales, with rates explicitly dependent on vegetation density. The model self-organizes into states similar to those observed in SCM and PM. Our results highlight the potential importance of eco-pedo-geomorphic feedbacks, mediated by soil thickness, in water-limited systems.

[1] Previous flume-based research on braided channels has revealed four classic mechanisms that produce braiding: central bar development, chute cutoff, lobe dissection, and transverse bar conversion. The importance of these braiding mechanisms relative to other morphodynamic mechanisms in shaping braided rivers has not yet been investigated in the field. Here we exploit repeat topographic surveys of the braided River Feshie (UK) to explore the morphodynamic signatures of different mechanisms of change in sediment storage. Our results indicate that, when combined, the four classic braiding mechanisms do indeed account for the majority of volumetric change in storage in the study reach (61% total). Chute cutoff, traditionally thought of as an erosional braiding mechanism, appears to be the most common braiding mechanism in the study river, but was more the result of deposition during the construction of diagonal bars than it was the erosion of the chute. Three of the four classic mechanisms appeared to be largely net aggradational in nature, whereas secondary mechanisms (including bank erosion, channel incision, and bar sculpting) were primarily net erosional. Although the role of readily erodible banks in facilitating braiding is often conceptualized, we show that bank erosion is as or more important a mechanism in changes in sediment storage than most of the braiding mechanisms, and is the most important “secondary” mechanism (17% of total change). The results of this study provide one of the first field tests of the relative importance of braiding mechanisms observed in flume settings.

[1] Cold ice within a polythermal ice body controls its flow dynamics through the temperature dependence of viscosity, and affects glacier hydrology by blocking water flow paths. Lakes on the surface, linked by persistent, deeply incised meltwater streams, are hallmark features of cold ice in the ablation zone of a glacier or ice sheet. Ice radar is a convenient method to map scattering from internal water bodies present in ice at the pressure melting temperature (PMT). Consequently, lack of internal scatters is indicative of cold ice. We use a helicopter-borne 30 MHz ice radar to delineate the extent of cold ice within Grenzgletscher (Zermatt, Swiss Alps). The inferred thermal structure is validated with temperature measurements in 15 deep boreholes, showing excellent agreement. The cold ice occupies 80–90 % of the total ice thickness in a 400 m wide flow band along the central flow line. Quantitative interpretation of ice radar scattering power indicates a decrease of ice water content between PMT and 0.5 K below PMT, as predicted by theory, and observed in the laboratory. The cold ice which emerges at the surface in the lower ablation zone is impermeable to water, and is thus devoid of moulins if not crevassed. The surface water from melt and rain is routed through deeply incised, persistent streams and lakes, and cryoconite holes are frequent, in stark contrast to the adjacent temperate ice from other tributaries. The cold ice thus has a strong control on glacier hydrology, but is likely to change due to continued warming.

[1] Ice-cored permafrost landscapes are highly sensitive to disturbance and have the potential to undergo dramatic geomorphic transformations in response to climate change. The acceleration of thermokarst activity in the lower Mackenzie and Peel River watersheds of northwestern Canada has led to the development of large permafrost thaw slumps and caused major impacts to fluvial systems. Individual “mega slumps” have thawed up to 10⁶ m³of ice-rich permafrost. The widespread development of these large thaw slumps (up to 40 ha area with headwalls of up to 25 m height) and associated debris flows drive distinct patterns of stream sediment and solute flux that are evident across a range of watershed scales. Suspended sediment and solute concentrations in impacted streams were several orders of magnitude greater than in unaffected streams. In summer, slump impacted streams displayed diurnal fluctuations in water levels and solute and sediment flux driven entirely by ground-ice thaw. Turbidity in these streams varied diurnally by up to an order of magnitude and followed the patterns of net radiation and ground-ice ablation in mega slumps. These diurnal patterns were discernible at the 10³ km² catchment scale, and regional disturbance inventories indicate that hundreds of watersheds are already influenced by slumping. The broad scale impacts of accelerated slumping are indicated by a significant increase in solute concentrations in the Peel River (70,000 km²). These observations illustrate the nature and magnitude of hydrogeomorphic changes that can be expected as glaciogenic landscapes underlain by massive ice adjust to a rapidly changing climate.

[1] A fundamental goal of studying earth surface processes is to disentangle the complex web of interactions among baselevel, tectonics, climate, and rock properties that generate characteristic landforms. Mechanistic geomorphic transport laws can quantitatively address this goal, but no widely accepted law for landslides exists. Here we propose a transport law for deep-seated landslides in weathered bedrock and demonstrate its utility using a two-dimensional numerical landscape evolution model informed by study areas in the Waipaoa catchment, New Zealand, and the Eel River catchment, California. We define a non-dimensional landslide number, which is the ratio of the horizontal landslide flux to the vertical tectonic flux, that characterizes three distinct landscape types. One is dominated by stochastic landsliding, whereby discrete landslide events episodically erode material at rates exceeding the long-term uplift rate. Another is characterized by steady landsliding, in which the landslide flux at any location remains constant through time and is greatest at the steepest locations in the catchment. The third is not significantly affected by landsliding. In both the “stochastic landsliding” and “steady landsliding” regimes, increases in the non-dimensional landslide number systematically reduce catchment relief and widen valley spacing, producing long, low angle hillslopes despite high uplift rates. The stochastic landsliding regime captures the frequent observation that deep-seated landslides produce large sediment fluxes from small areal extents while being active only a fraction of the time. We suggest that this model is adaptable to a wide range of geologic settings and is useful for interpreting climate-driven changes in landslide behavior.

[1] Stratigraphy contains the most complete record of information necessary to quantitatively reconstruct paleolandscape dynamics, but this record contains significant gaps over a range of time and space scales. These gaps result from stasis on geomorphic surfaces and erosional events that remove previously deposited sediment. Building on earlier statistical studies, we examine stratigraphic completeness in three laboratory experiments where the topography of aggrading deltas was monitored at high temporal and spatial scales. The three experiments cover unique combinations in the absolute magnitudes of sediment and water discharge in addition to generation of accommodation space through base-level rise. This analysis centers on three time scales: (1) the time at which a record is discretized (t), (2) the time necessary to build a deposit with mean thickness equivalent to the maximum roughness on a surface (T_c), and (3) the time necessary for channelized flow to migrate over all locations in a basin (T_ch). These time scales incorporate information pertaining to the time-variant topography of actively changing surfaces, kinematics by which the surfaces are changing, and net deposition rate. We find that stratigraphic completeness increases as a function of t/T_c but decreases as a function of T_c/T_ch over the parameter space covered in the experiments. Our results suggest that environmental signals disconnected from a sediment routing system are best preserved in systems with low T_c values. Nondimensionalizing t by T_c, however, shows that preservation of information characterizing system morphodynamics is best preserved in stratigraphy constructed by systems with low water to sediment flux ratios.

[1] It has been proposed that debris flows cut bedrock valleys in steeplands worldwide, but field measurements needed to constrain mechanistic models of this process remain sparse due to the difficulty of instrumenting natural flows. Here we present and analyze measurements made using an automated sensor network, erosion bolts, and a 15.24 cm by 15.24 cm force plate installed in the bedrock channel floor of a steep catchment. These measurements allow us to quantify the distribution of basal forces from natural debris‒flow events that incised bedrock. Over the 4 year monitoring period, 11 debris‒flow events scoured the bedrock channel floor. No clear water flows were observed. Measurements of erosion bolts at the beginning and end of the study indicated that the bedrock channel floor was lowered by 36 to 64 mm. The basal force during these erosive debris‒flow events had a large‒magnitude (up to 21 kN, which was approximately 50 times larger than the concurrent time‒averaged mean force), high‒frequency (greater than 1 Hz) fluctuating component. We interpret these fluctuations as flow particles impacting the bed. The resulting variability in force magnitude increased linearly with the time‒averaged mean basal force. Probability density functions of basal normal forces were consistent with a generalized Pareto distribution, rather than the exponential distribution that is commonly found in experimental and simulated monodispersed granular flows and which has a lower probability of large forces. When the bed sediment thickness covering the force plate was greater than ∼ 20 times the median bed sediment grain size, no significant fluctuations about the time‒averaged mean force were measured, indicating that a thin layer of sediment (∼ 5 cm in the monitored cases) can effectively shield the subjacent bed from erosive impacts. Coarse‒grained granular surges and water‒rich, intersurge flow had very similar basal force distributions despite differences in appearance and bulk‒flow density. These results demonstrate that debris flows can have strong control on rates of steepland evolution and contribute to a foundation needed for modeling debris‒flow incision stochastically.

[1] We conducted a series of flume experiments to investigate the response of self-formed gravel-bed channels to floods of varying magnitude and duration. Floods were generated by increasing the discharge into a channel created in sand- and gravel-sized sediment with a median grain size of 2 mm. Flooding increased the Shields stress along the channel perimeter, causing bank erosion and rapid channel widening. The sediment introduced to the channel by bank erosion was not necessarily deposited on the channel bed, but was rather transported downstream, a process likely facilitated by transient fining of the bed surface. At the end of each experiment, bank sediments were no longer in motion, “partial bed load transport” characterized the flat-bed portion of the channel, and the Shields stress approached a constant value of 0.056, about 1.2 times the critical Shields stress for incipient motion. Furthermore, the discharge was entirely accommodated by flow within the channel: the creation of a stable channel entirely eliminated overbank flows. We speculate that similar processes may occur in nature, but only where bank sediments are non-cohesive and where channel-narrowing processes cannot counteract bank erosion during overbank flows. We also demonstrate that a simple model of lateral bed load transport can reproduce observed channel widening rates, suggesting that simple methods may be appropriate for predicting width increases in channels with non-cohesive, unvegetated banks, even during overbank flows. Last, we present a model for predicting the equilibrium width and depth of a stable gravel-bed channel with a known channel-forming Shields stress.

[1] This paper presents the first assessment of the Uummannaq ice stream system (UISS) in West Greenland. The UISS drained ~6% of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The onset of the UISS is a function of a convergent network of fjords which feed a geologically controlled trough system running offshore to the shelf break. Mapping, cosmogenic radiogenic nuclide (CRN) dating, and model output reveal that glacially scoured surfaces up to 1266 m above sea level (asl) in fjord-head areas were produced by warm-based ice moving offshore during the LGM, with the elevation of warm-based ice dropping westwards to ~700 m asl as the ice stream trunk zone developed. Marginal plateaux with allochthonous blockfields suggest that warm-based ice produced till and erratics up to ~1200 m asl, but CRN ages and weathering pits suggest this was pre-LGM, with only cold-based ice operating during the LGM. Deglaciation began on the outer shelf at ~14.8 cal. kyrs B.P., with Ubekendt Ejland becoming ice free at ~12.4 ka. The UISS then collapsed with over 100 km of retreat by ~11.4 ka–10.8 cal. kyrs B.P., a rapid and complex response to bathymetric deepening, trough widening, and sea-level rise coinciding with rapidly increasing air temperatures and solar radiation, but which occurred prior to ocean warming at ~8.4 cal. kyrs B.P. Local fjord constriction temporarily stabilized the unzipped UISS margins at the start of the Holocene before ice retreat inland of the current margin at ~8.7 ka.

[1] Erosion by bedrock river channels is commonly modeled with the stream power equation. We present a two-part approach to solving this nonlinear equation analytically and explore the implications for evolving river profiles. First, a method for non-dimensionalizing the stream power equation transforms river profiles in steady state with respect to uniform uplift into a straight line in dimensionless distance-elevation space. Second, a method that tracks the upstream migration of slope patches, which are mathematical entities that carry information about downstream river states, provides a basis for constructing analytical solutions. Slope patch analysis explains why the transient morphology of dimensionless river profiles differs fundamentally if the exponent on channel slope, n, is less than or greater than one and why only concave-up migrating knickpoints persist when n < 1, whereas only concave-down migrating knickpoints persist when n > 1. At migrating knickpoints, slope patches and the information they carry are lost, a phenomenon that fundamentally limits the potential for reconstructing tectonic histories from bedrock river profiles. Stationary knickpoints, which can arise from spatially varying uplift rates, differ from migrating knickpoints in that slope patches and the information they carry are not lost. Counterparts to migrating knickpoints, called “stretch zones,” are created when closely spaced slope patches spread to form smooth curves in distance-elevation space. These theoretical results are illustrated with examples from the California King Range and the Central Apennines.

[1] Most rivers exhibit regions of strong channel curvature that are characterized by more complex and variable flow and erosion patterns, compared to regions of lower curvature. Studies investigating high-curvature bends using eddy-resolving techniques have been limited, and the effect of bend angle on flow and erosion has rarely been investigated. This study investigates flow in a 135° nonerodible bank open channel bend of high curvature: ratio of radius of curvature, R, to channel width, B, is 1.5. The bathymetry is obtained during the final stages of a clear water scour experiment. Large Eddy Simulation is used to investigate the effect of secondary flow on the redistribution of streamwise momentum, the details of coherent structures, and mechanisms leading to erosion within the bend. Results are compared with those from a similar numerical study of a 193° sharply curved open channel bend with R/B = 1.35. The angle of the 135° bend is representative of typical regular meander geometry, while the larger angle of the 193° bend is representative of a tortuous meander geometry. The different bathymetries induced important quantitative and qualitative differences in the vortical and turbulence structure within the open channel for the two cases. Inner bank streamwise-oriented vortical (SOV) cells formed in both cases, but the position and extent of shear layers forming between regions of fast and slow moving fluid differed, and flow did not separate at the inner bank in the 135° bend. An outer-bank cell was observed in the 135° bend, but not in the 193° bend. Distributions of predicted boundary shear stresses indicated the capacity of the flow to erode the outer bank of a sharply curved bend under two representative regimes found in the field.

[1] Hydrologic fluctuations and geomorphic heterogeneity are expected to produce substantial variability in solute transport within rivers. However, this variability has not been sufficiently explored due to the limited availability of solute injection data in most rivers. Here, we analyzed 81 tracer injection breakthrough curves (BTCs) along Stringer Creek, a 5.5 km² watershed in Montana. BTC measurements were obtained for three baseflow conditions at 27 reaches along a 2600 m stream channel. BTCs in upstream reaches (first 1400 m) had receding tails with shallow slopes, indicating high solute retention. Conversely, BTCs in downstream reaches (1400 to 2600 m) had receding tails with steeper slopes, indicating low solute retention relative to upstream reaches. Difference in BTC tails along the stream channel coincided with changes in channel morphology and bedrock geology. Specifically, channel slope increases from 5–6% (upstream) to 9% (downstream), channel sinuosity decreases from a maximum of 1.32 (upstream) to 1.02 (downstream), and the underlying bedrock changes from sandstone (upstream) to granite-gneiss (downstream). Importantly, intrastream differences in BTC tails were distinctly observable only during the two lowest baseflow conditions. Spatial variability of BTC tail-slopes was most sensitive to changes in local discharge at low flow, and to changes in channel sinuosity at high flow. BTC tail-slopes varied temporally with local discharge and velocity at upstream reaches, but not at downstream reaches. These results suggest that local interactions between channel morphology and solute retention vary with hydrologic conditions, and that solute retention becomes more homogeneous at higher stream discharge.

[1] Glaciers erode bedrock rapidly, but evacuation of sediments requires efficient subglacial drainage networks. If glaciers erode more rapidly than evacuation proceeds, a protective subglacial till layer can form to armor the bed. Where glaciers cross overdeepenings, local closed depressions, the bed slope opposes the ice surface and lowers the hydraulic potential gradient that drives water flow. Here, we present results of a dynamic, distributed model of coupled basal water flow and sediment transport to show how overdeepenings evolve over the course of a melt season. We use steady-state calculations as well as numerical simulations to understand how alluvial bed erosion alters overdeepenings. Numerical results from a modified form of the Spring-Hutter equations show behaviors that cannot be inferred from either local or steady-state calculations. In general, opposition of surface and bed slopes lessens sediment transport regardless of ice accretion from glaciohydraulic supercooling. Drainage efficiency strongly affects erosion and deposition rates. Results show characteristic behaviors of flow through overdeepenings such as overpressured water systems and accretion rates compatible with field measurements. Simulations that start with overdeepened glacier configurations progress out of a freezing regime where glaciohydraulic supercooling occurs. This progression indicates that glacier hydrology is more strongly affected by erosion and deposition than by freezing from glaciohydraulic supercooling. We discuss how this outcome affects glacier erosion and sediment transport under modern and past ice sheets.

[1] The morphodynamic adaptation of estuaries to sea level fluctuations has been subject of geological studies based on sediment core analysis and qualitative modeling efforts. Limited attention has been paid to understanding bathymetric evolution based on a detailed process level. The current study aims to explore governing morphodynamic processes and timescales by application of a 2D, process-based modeling approach. The starting point of the analysis is an 80 km long and 2.5 km wide basin. Starting from a sandy flat bed, stable channel-shoal patterns emerge within a century under semidiurnal tidal forcing. We impose a gradual rise in sea level (up to 0.67 m per century) and compare the results with a run excluding sea level rise (SLR). Model results show that SLR drowns the basin so that intertidal area disappears. This process generates tidal asymmetry reflected by an emerging M₄ tidal constituent. The basin shifts from exporting to importing sediment reflected by shoal patterns migrating in the landward direction. The landward sediment transport remains too limited to compensate for the loss in intertidal area and to restore equilibrium within a millennial time scale. Further sensitivity tests on initial bathymetry, tidal amplitude forcing, and rate of SLR show that shallow basins with limited tidal forcing are most vulnerable to SLR.

[1] We performed three field campaigns in 2004, 2007, and 2010 at the southern margin of the Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, in order to infer flow velocities and their changes from photogrammetric time-lapse imagery with a temporal resolution of 20 min and a spatial spacing of about 30 m on the glacier surface. Area-wide analysis of more than 3000 three-dimensional trajectories at individual glacier positions allow for both the mapping of the grounding line and the detailed observation of flow variations during major calving events. From 2004 to 2010, the grounding line of Jakobshavn Isbræ retreated 3.5 ± 0.2 km. Considering previously published results, the grounding line retreat amounts to 6 km since 1985. The glacier has an ephemeral floating tongue that can establish during the readvance of the glacier front and break apart after large calving events. Observations of a major calving event show that an acceleration of flow velocities coincides with the onset of the break up during which flow velocities of up to 70 m/d can be reached. Moreover, large vertical displacements of the glacier front in the order of 15 m and lowering of 8 m at positions 500 m beyond the calving front were observed 2 days before the calving event. After the break up, the glacier slowly adjusts to the new boundary conditions within the next 4–5 days. Flow velocity variations caused by calving were detected up to 1 km upstream only which indicates that individual calving events have no immediate effect on the large-scale glacier dynamics.

[1] Measurements of morphologic change are often used to infer sediment mass balance. Such measurements may, however, result in gross errors when morphologic changes over short reaches are extrapolated to predict changes in sediment mass balance for long river segments. This issue is investigated by examination of morphologic change and sediment influx and efflux for a 100 km segment of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, Arizona. For each of four monitoring intervals within a 7 year study period, the direction of sand-storage response within short morphologic monitoring reaches was consistent with the flux-based sand mass balance. Both budgeting methods indicate that sand storage was stable or increased during the 7 year period. Extrapolation of the morphologic measurements outside the monitoring reaches does not, however, provide a reasonable estimate of the magnitude of sand-storage change for the 100 km study area. Extrapolation results in large errors, because there is large local variation in site behavior driven by interactions between the flow and local bed topography. During the same flow regime and reach-average sediment supply, some locations accumulate sand while others evacuate sand. The interaction of local hydraulics with local channel geometry exerts more control on local morphodynamic response than sand supply over an encompassing river segment. Changes in the upstream supply of sand modify bed responses but typically do not completely offset the effect of local hydraulics. Thus, accurate sediment budgets for long river segments inferred from reach-scale morphologic measurements must incorporate the effect of local hydraulics in a sampling design or avoid extrapolation altogether.

Subglacial water in continental Antarctica forms by melting of basal ice due to geothermal or frictional heating. Subglacial networks transport the water from melting areas and can facilitate sliding by the ice sheet over its bed. Subglacial water flow is driven mainly by gradients in overburden pressure and bed elevation. We identify small (median 850 m) water bodies within the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains in East Antarctica organized into long (20–103 km) coherent drainage networks using a dense (5 km) grid of airborne radar data. The individual water bodies are smaller on average than the water bodies contained in existing inventories of Antarctic subglacial water and most are smaller than the mean ice thickness of 2.5 km, reflecting a focusing of basal water by rugged topography. The water system in the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains reoccupies a system of alpine overdeepenings created by valley glaciers in the early growth phase of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. The networks follow valley floors either uphill or downhill depending on the gradient of the ice sheet surface. In cases where the networks follow valley floors uphill they terminate in or near plumes of freeze-on ice, indicating source to sink transport within the basal hydrologic system. Because the ice surface determines drainage direction within the bed-constrained network, the system is bed-routed but surface-directed. Along-flow variability in the structure of the freeze-on plumes suggests variability in the networks on long (10s of ka) timescales, possibly indicating changes in the basal thermal state.

[1] Previous predictions on the ability of coastal salt marshes to adapt to future sea level rise (SLR) neglect the influence of changing storm activity that is expected in many regions of the world due to climate change. We present a new modeling approach to quantify this influence on the ability of salt marshes to survive projected SLR, namely, we investigate the separate influence of storm frequency and storm intensity. The model is applied to a salt marsh on the German island of Sylt and is run for a simulation period from 2010 to 2100 for a total of 13 storm scenarios and 48 SLR scenarios. The critical SLR rate for marsh survival, being the maximum rate at which the salt marsh survives until 2100, lies between 19 and 22 mm yr^-1. Model results indicate that an increase in storminess can increase the ability of the salt marsh to accrete with sea level rise by up to 3 mm yr^-1, if the increase in storminess is triggered by an increase in the number of storm events (storm frequency). Meanwhile, increasing storminess, triggered by an increase in the mean storm strength (storm intensity), is shown to increase the critical SLR rate for which the marsh survives until 2100 by up to 1 mm yr^-1 only. On the basis of our results, we suggest that the relative importance of storm intensity and storm frequency for marsh survival strongly depends on the availability of erodible fine-grained material in the tidal area adjacent to the salt marsh.

[1] Ice streams on the Siple Coast, West Antarctica, have a complex history of flow because their basal motion is governed by time-varying basal conditions. Although the mechanical interaction between ice and till is well established, very little is known about the potential effect of regionally scaled water transport in a basal water system, which has only recently become apparent. To investigate the combined effect of hydrological and mechanical processes, we developed the Hydrology, Ice and Till model, in which ice flow is coupled to a Coulomb-plastic till layer and a basal water system consisting of discrete conduits. When the model is applied to Kamb Ice Stream (KIS), results confirm that it is capable of oscillating between fast and stagnant modes of flow. We show that when subglacial conduits are disregarded or do not extend to the grounding line, the oscillatory behavior of the ice stream is governed by the basal thermal regime. When conduits extend to the grounding line, the modelled ice stream oscillation period is increased, peak speeds are reduced, and oscillations may ultimately cease if the volume of water supplied is sufficiently high. Three different hydrological states characterize the behavioral patterns of ice flow and these states are distinguished by conditions at the grounding line. Modelled ice stream velocities were found to oscillate with fast and slow periods typically lasting a few hundred years, although varying according to hydrological activity. Our results indicate that KIS could reactivate this century, given its hydrological setting and ~170 years of stagnation.

[1] Many glaciers along the southeast and northwest coasts of Greenland have accelerated, increasing the ice sheet's contribution to global sea-level rise. In this article, we map elevation changes on Upernavik Isstrøm (UI), West Greenland, during 2003to 2009 using high-resolution ice, cloud and land elevation satellite laser altimeter data supplemented with altimeter surveys from NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper during 2002 to 2010. To assess thinning prior to 2002, we analyze aerial photographs from 1985. We document at least two distinct periods of dynamically induced ice loss during 1985 to 2010 characterized by a rapid retreat of the calving front, increased ice speed, and lowering of the ice surface. The first period occurred before 1991, whereas the latter occurred during 2005 to 2009. Analyses of air and sea-surface temperature suggest a combination of relatively warm air and ocean water as a potential trigger for the dynamically induced ice loss. We estimate a total catchment-wide ice-mass loss of UI caused by the two events of 72.3 ± 15.8 Gt during 1985 to 2010, whereas the total melt-induced ice-mass loss during this same period is 19.8 ± 2.8 Gt. Thus, 79% of the total ice-mass loss of the UI catchment was caused by ice dynamics, indicating the importance of including dynamically induced ice loss in the total mass change budget of the Greenland ice sheet.

[1] Previous work highlights the need for data collection to identify appropriate models for temporal evolution of tracer dispersal in rivers. Results of 64 gravel-bed field tracer experiments covering a wide range of flow and sediment supply regimes are compiled here to determine the probabilistic character of gravel transport. We focus on whether particle travel distances and waits are thin- or heavy-tailed. While heavy-tailed travel distance distributions are observed between successive monitoring events in different hydrological and sediment supply regimes, heavy-tailedness does not persist through total travel distance over multiple monitoring events, suggesting that individual monitoring events occur before particle travel distance exceeds the characteristic correlation length for the channel (such that particles that start in fast paths remain in fast paths and particles in slow paths remain in slow paths). After a large number of transport events, super-diffusive spreading was not observed at any of the gravel bed streams. Continuous-time tracking of x, y, z coordinates of tracers in natural streams is necessary to capture exact step and waiting time distributions.

[1] Soluble salt accumulations in soils of Taylor Valley, Antarctica, provide a history of paleolakes and the advance of the Ross Sea Ice Sheet (RSIS). In western Taylor Valley, soluble salt accumulations are relatively high and are composed primarily of Na⁺, Ca²⁺, Cl^–, and SO₄^2–. In eastern Taylor Valley, soluble salt accumulations are much lower and are composed primarily of Na⁺ and HCO₃^–. Na-HCO_3-rich compositions in eastern Taylor Valley are formed through leaching, calcite dissolution, and cation exchange reactions and appear to influence the chemistry of nearby streams and lakes. The data presented here support hypotheses that a lobe of the RSIS expanded into eastern Taylor Valley and dammed proglacial paleolakes. However, in contrast to previous studies, our findings indicate that the RSIS advanced deeper into Taylor Valley and that paleolakes were less extensive. By comparing soluble salt distributions across Taylor Valley, we conclude that a lobe of the RSIS filled all of eastern Taylor Valley and dammed paleolakes in western Taylor Valley up to approximately 300 m elevation. Following ice retreat, smaller paleolakes formed in both western and eastern Taylor Valley up to about 120 m elevation, with prominent still-stands controlled by the elevation of major valley thresholds. At higher elevations, soluble salt accumulations are consistent with older soils that have not been affected by the most recent RSIS advance.

[1] Detailed bathymetric surveys of the seafloor have enabled the identification and analysis of submarine channels worldwide. Previous authors have remarked on the morphologic similarity of submarine channels and rivers, and have identified a number of similarities and differences in processes of flow and sedimentation. In this study, we compare the width, depth, and slope of 177 submarine channel cross-sections to that of 231 river cross-sections. The results indicate that submarine channels have cross-sectional dimensions that can exceed the dimensions of the largest rivers on earth by an order of magnitude. For rivers and submarine channels with similar width or depth, the slope of submarine channels can be up to two orders of magnitude greater than the slope of rivers. An analysis of trends in driving force vs. channel size suggests that a reasonable estimate of the volumetric sediment concentration of channelized turbidity currents lies in the range C = 0.2% to 0.6%. Bankfull turbidity current velocities are estimated using this range in concentration. Friction coefficients are based on values identified for large rivers and a modified Chezy equation. These velocities are then used in a classic hydraulic geometry analysis of the submarine channels, which shows that submarine channels and rivers follow similar power law trends in width, depth, and velocity as functions of bankfull discharge.