Human-altered environmental conditions affect many species at the global scale. An extreme form of anthropogenic alteration is the existence and rapid increase of urban areas. A key question then is how species cope with urbanisation. It has been suggested that rural and urban conspecifics show differences in behaviour and personality. However, (i) a generalization of this phenomenon has never been made, and (ii) it is still unclear whether differences in personality traits between rural and urban conspecifics are the result of phenotypic plasticity or of intrinsic differences. In a literature review, we show that behavioural differences between rural and urban conspecifics are common and taxonomically widespread among animals, suggesting a significant ecological impact of urbanisation on animal behaviour. In order to gain insight into the mechanisms leading to behavioural differences in urban individuals, we hand-raised and kept European blackbirds (Turdus merula) from a rural and a nearby urban area under common-garden conditions. Using these birds, we investigated individual variation in two behavioural responses to the presence of novel objects: approach to an object in a familiar area (here defined as neophilia), and avoidance of an object in a familiar foraging context (defined as neophobia). Neophilic and neophobic behaviours were mildly correlated and repeatable even across a time period of one year, indicating stable individual behavioural strategies. Blackbirds from the urban population were more neophobic and seasonally less neophilic than blackbirds from the nearby rural area. These intrinsic differences in personality traits are likely the result of microevolutionary changes, although we cannot fully exclude early developmental influences.

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Despite decades of work on climate change biology, the scientific community remains uncertain about where and when most species distributions will respond to altered climates. A major barrier is the spatial mismatch between the size of organisms and the scale at which climate data are collected and modeled. Using a meta-analysis of published literature, we show that grid lengths in species distribution models are, on average, ~10,000-fold larger than the animals they study, and ~1,000-fold larger than the plants they study. And the gap is even worse than these ratios indicate, since most work has focused on organisms that are significantly biased toward large size. This mismatch is problematic because organisms do not experience climate on coarse scales. Rather, they live in microclimates, which can be highly heterogeneous and strongly divergent from surrounding macroclimates. Bridging the spatial gap should be a high priority for research and will require gathering climate data at finer scales, developing better methods for downscaling environmental data to microclimates, and improving our statistical understanding of variation at finer scales. Interdisciplinary collaborations (including ecologists, engineers, climatologists, meteorologists, statisticians, and geographers) will be key to bridging the gap, and ultimately to providing scientifically grounded data and recommendations to conservation biologists and policy makers.

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Cold-water coral (CWC) reefs are recognised as ecologically and biologically significant areas that generate habitats and diversity. The interaction between hydrodynamics and CWCs has been well-studied at the Mingulay Reef Complex, a relatively shallow area of reefs found on the continental shelf off Scotland, UK. Within ‘Mingulay Area 01’ a rapid tidal downwelling of surface waters, brought about as an internal wave, is known to supply warmer, phytoplankton-rich waters to corals growing on the northern flank of an east-west trending seabed ridge. This study shows that this tidal downwelling also causes short-term perturbations in the inorganic carbon and nutrient dynamics through the water column and immediately above the reef. Over a 14 h period, corresponding to one semi-diurnal tidal cycle, seawater pH overlying the reef varied by ~0.1 pH unit, while pCO₂ shifted by > 60 μatm, a shift equivalent to a ~25 year jump into the future, with respect to atmospheric pCO₂. During the summer stratified period, these downwelling events result in the reef being washed over with surface water that has higher pH, is warmer, nutrient-depleted, but rich in phytoplankton-derived particles compared to the deeper waters in which the corals sit. Empirical observations, together with outputs from the European Regional Shelf Sea Ecosystem Model, demonstrate that the variability that the CWC reefs experience changes through the seasons and into the future. Hence, as ocean acidification and warming increase into the future, the downwelling event specific to this site could provide short-term amelioration of corrosive conditions at certain times of the year; however it could additionally result in enhanced detrimental impacts of warming on CWCs. Natural variability in the inorganic carbon and nutrient conditions, as well as local hydrodynamic regimes, must be accounted for in any future predictions concerning the responses of marine ecosystems to climate change.

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Climate change likely will lead to increasingly favourable environmental conditions for many parasites. However, predictions regarding parasitism's impacts often fail to account for the likely variability in host distribution and how this may alter parasite occurrence. Here, we investigate potential distributional shifts in the meningeal worm, Parelaphostrongylosis tenuis, a protostrongylid nematode commonly found in white-tailed deer in North America, whose lifecycle also involves a free-living stage and a gastropod intermediate host. We modelled the distribution of the hosts and free-living larva as a complete assemblage to assess whether a complex trophic system will lead to an overall increase in parasite distribution with climate change, or whether divergent environmental niches may promote an ecological mismatch. Using an ensemble approach to climate modelling under two different carbon emission scenarios, we show that while the overall trend is for an increase in niche breadth for each species, mismatches arise in habitat suitability of the free-living larva versus the definitive and intermediate hosts. By incorporating these projected mismatches into a combined model, we project a shift in parasite distribution accounting for all steps in the transmission cycle, and identify that overall habitat suitability of the parasite will decline in the Great Plains and southeastern USA, but will increase in the Boreal Forest ecoregion, particularly in Alberta. These results have important implications for wildlife conservation and management due to the known pathogenicity of parelaphostrongylosis to alternate hosts including moose, caribou and elk. Our results suggest that disease risk forecasts which fail to consider biotic interactions may be overly simplistic, and that accounting for each of the parasite's life stages is key to refining predicted responses to climate change.

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Air temperatures in the arid western United States are predicted to increase over the next century. These increases will likely impact the distribution of plant species, particularly dioecious species that show a spatial segregation of the sexes across broad resource gradients. Based on spatial segregation patterns, we hypothesized that temperature increases will have a greater negative impact on female plants compared to co-occurring male plants of dioecious species. This hypothesis was tested by examining the whole-plant carbon and water relations of 10-year old female (n = 18) and male (n = 13) Acer negundo Sarg. trees grown in a common garden in Salt Lake City, UT. The trees were established from cuttings collected where the growing season temperature averaged about 6.5 °C cooler than at the common garden. During May and June, stem sap flux (J_s) was similar between genders, but averaged 25% higher in males during the warmer months of July and August. Daytime canopy stomatal conductance (g_s) per unit leaf area was 12% higher in females in May:June, but was 11% higher in males in July:August. We combined measurements of sap flux–scaled transpiration with measurements of tree allometry and δ¹³C of leaf soluble sugars to estimate whole-tree carbon assimilation (A_tree) and water use efficiency (A_tree:E_tree). A_tree was similar between genders until late August when A_tree was 32% higher in male trees. A_tree:E_tree was on average 7% higher in females than in males during the growing season. Patterns of J_s, g_s, A_tree and A_tree:E_tree in the present study were in contrast to those previously reported for A. negundo genders under native growing season temperatures. Results suggest that the spatial segregation of the sexes could shift under global warming such that female plants lose their dominance in high-resource habitats, and males increase their dominance in relatively lower-resource habitats.

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Mountain plants are considered among the species most vulnerable to climate change, especially at high latitudes where there is little potential for poleward or uphill dispersal. Satellite monitoring can reveal spatio-temporal variation in vegetation activity, offering a largely unexploited potential for studying responses of montane ecosystems to temperature and predicting phenological shifts driven by climate change. Here, a novel remote sensing phenology approach is developed that advances existing techniques by considering variation in vegetation activity across the whole year, rather than just focusing on event dates (e.g. start and end of season). Time series of two vegetation indices (NDVI and EVI) were obtained from the MODIS satellite for 2786 Scottish mountain summits (600-1344 m elevation) in the years 2000-2011. NDVI and EVI time series were temporally interpolated to derive values on the first day of each month, for comparison with gridded monthly temperatures from the preceding period. These were regressed against temperature in the previous months, elevation and their interaction, showing significant variation in temperature sensitivity between months. Warm years were associated with high NDVI and EVI in spring and summer, while there was little effect of temperature in autumn and a negative effect in winter. Elevation was shown to mediate phenological change via a magnification of temperature responses on the highest mountains. Together, these predict that climate change will drive substantial changes in mountain summit phenology, especially by advancing spring growth at high elevations. The phenological plasticity underlying these temperature responses may allow long-lived alpine plants to acclimate to warmer temperatures. Conversely, longer growing seasons may facilitate colonisation and competitive exclusion by species currently restricted to lower elevations. In either case, these results show previously unreported seasonal and elevational variation in the temperature sensitivity of mountain vegetation activity.

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Much attention has been given to recent predictions that widespread extinctions of tropical ectotherms, and tropical forest lizards in particular, will result from anthropogenic climate change. Most of these predictions, however, are based on environmental temperature data measured at a maximum resolution of 1 km², whereas individuals of most species experience thermal variation on a much finer scale. To address this disconnect, we combined thermal performance curves for five populations of Anolis lizard from the Bay Islands of Honduras with high-resolution temperature distributions generated from physical models. Previous research has suggested that open-habitat species are likely to invade forest habitat and drive forest species to extinction. We test this hypothesis, and compare the vulnerabilities of closely related, but allopatric, forest species. Our data suggest that the open-habitat populations we studied will not invade forest habitat and may actually benefit from predicted warming for many decades. Conversely, one of the forest species we studied should experience reduced activity time as a result of warming, while two others are unlikely to experience a significant decline in performance. Our results suggest that global-scale predictions generated using low-resolution temperature data may overestimate the vulnerability of many tropical ectotherms to climate change.

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Using a high resolution (40 × 40 km) chemical transport model coupled with the Regional Emission inventory in Asia (REAS), we simulated surface ozone concentrations ([O₃]) and evaluated O₃-induced wheat production loss in China and India for the years 2000 and 2020 using dose–response functions based on AOT40 (accumulated [O₃] above 40 ppb) and POD_Y (phytotoxic O₃ dose, accumulated stomatal flux of O₃ above a threshold of Y nmol m⁻² s⁻¹). Two O₃ dose metrics (90-days AOT40 and POD₆) were derived from European experiments, and the other two (75-days AOT40 and POD₁₂) were adapted from Asian studies. Relative yield loss (RYL) of wheat in 2000 was estimated to be 6.4–14.9% for China, and 8.2–22.3% for India. POD₆ predicted greater RYL, especially for the warm regions of India, whereas the 90-days AOT40 gave the lowest estimates. For the future projection, all the O₃ dose metrics gave comparable estimates of an increase in RYL from 2000 to 2020 in the range of 8.1–9.4% and 5.4–7.7% for China and India, respectively. The lower projected increase in RYL for India may be due to conservative estimation of the emission increase in 2020. Sensitivity tests of the model showed that the POD_Y-based estimates of RYL are highly sensitive to perturbations in the meteorological inputs, but that the estimated increase of RYL from 2000 to 2020 is much more robust. The projected increase in wheat production loss in China and India in the near future is substantially larger than the uncertainties in the estimation and indicates an urgent need for curbing the rapid increase of surface [O₃] in these regions.

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A rapidly growing body of literature documents the potential negative effects of CO₂-driven ocean acidification (OA) on marine organisms. However, nearly all of this work has focused on the effects of future conditions on modern populations, neglecting the role of adaptation. Rapid evolution can alter demographic responses to environmental change, ultimately affecting the likelihood of population persistence, but the capacity for adaptation will differ among populations and species. Here, we measure the capacity of the ecologically important purple sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus to adapt to OA, using a breeding experiment to estimate additive genetic variance for larval size (an important component of fitness) under future high pCO₂/low pH conditions. Although larvae reared under future conditions were smaller than those reared under present-day conditions, we show that there is also abundant genetic variation for body size under elevated pCO₂, indicating that this trait can evolve. The observed heritability of size was 0.40±0.32 (95% CI) under low pCO₂, and 0.50±0.30 under high pCO₂ conditions. Accounting for the observed genetic variation in models of future larval size and demographic rates substantially alters projections of performance for this species in the future ocean. Importantly, our model shows that after incorporating the effects of adaptation, the OA-driven decrease in population growth rate is up to 50% smaller, than that predicted by the “no-adaptation” scenario. Adults used in the experiment were collected from two sites on the coast of the Northeast Pacific that are characterized by different pH regimes, as measured by autonomous sensors. Comparing results between sites, we also found subtle differences in larval size under high pCO₂ rearing conditions, consistent with local adaptation to carbonate chemistry in the field. These results suggest that spatially varying selection may help to maintain genetic variation necessary for adaptation to future ocean acidification.

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Based on the crop trial data during 1981-2009 at 57 agricultural experimental stations across the northeastern China Plain (NECP) and the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLRYR), we investigated how major climate variables had changed and how the climate change had affected crop growth and yield in a setting in which agronomic management practices were taken based on actual weather. We found a significant warming trend during rice growing season, and a general decreasing trend in solar radiation (SRD) in the MLRYR during 1981-2009. Rice transplanting, heading and maturity dates were generally advanced, but the heading and maturity dates of single rice in the MLRYR (YZ_SR) and NECP (NE_SR) were delayed. Climate warming had a negative impact on growth period lengths at about 80% of the investigated stations. Nevertheless, the actual growth period lengths of YZ_SR and NE_SR, as well as the actual length of reproductive growth period (RGP) of early rice in the MLRYR (YZ_ER), were generally prolonged due to adoption of cultivars with longer growth period to obtain higher yield. In contrast, the actual growth period length of late rice in the MLRYR (YZ_LR) was shortened by both climate warming and adoption of early mature cultivars to prevent cold damage and obtain higher yield. During 1981-2009, climate warming and decrease in SRD changed yield of YZ_ER by -0.59% to 2.4%; climate warming during RGP increased yield of YZ_LR by 8.38% to 9.56%; climate warming and decrease in SRD jointly reduced yield of YZ_SR by 7.14% to 9.68%; climate warming and increase in SRD jointly increased yield of NE_SR by 1.01% to 3.29%. Our study suggests rice production in China has been affected by climate change, yet at the same time changes in varieties continue to be the major factor driving yield and growing period trends.

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Co-occurring ocean warming, acidification and reduced carbonate mineral saturation have significant impacts on marine biota, especially calcifying organisms. The effects of these stressors on development and calcification in newly metamorphosed juveniles (ca. 0.5 mm test diam) of the intertidal sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma, an ecologically important species in temperate Australia, were investigated in context with present and projected future conditions. Habitat temperature and pH/pCO₂ were documented to place experiments in a biologically and ecologically relevant context. These parameters fluctuated diurnally up to 10°C and 0.45 pH units. The juveniles were exposed to three temperature (21°C, 23°C, 25°C) and four pH (8.1, 7.8, 7.6, 7.4) treatments in all combinations, representing ambient sea surface conditions (21°C, pH 8.1; pCO₂ 397; Ω_Ca 4.7; Ω_Ar 3.1), near-future projected change (+2-4°C, -0.3-0.5 pH units; pCO₂ 400-1820; Ω_Ca 5.0-1.6; Ω_Ar 3.3-1.1), and extreme conditions experienced at low tide (+4°C, -0.3-07 pH units; pCO₂ 2850-2967; Ω_Ca 1.1-1.0; Ω_Ar 0.7-0.6). The lowest pH treatment (pH 7.4) was used to assess tolerance levels. Juvenile survival and test growth were resilient to current and near-future warming and acidification. Spine development, however, was negatively effected by near-future increased temperature (+2-4°C) and extreme acidification (pH 7.4), with a complex interaction between stressors. Near-future warming was the more significant stressor. Spine tips were dissolved in the pH 7.4 treatments. Adaptation to fluctuating temperature-pH conditions in the intertidal may convey resilience to juvenile H. erythrogramma to changing ocean conditions, however, ocean warming and acidification may shift baseline intertidal temperature and pH/pCO₂ to levels that exceed tolerance limits.

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Grassland productivity in response to climate change and land use is a global concern. In order to explore the effects of climate change and land use on net primary productivity (NPP), NPP partitioning (f_BNPP, defined as the fraction of belowground NPP (BNPP) to NPP), and rain use efficiency (RUE) of NPP, we conducted a field experiment with warming (+ 3 °C), altered precipitation (double and half), and annual clipping in a mixed grass prairie in Oklahoma, USA since July, 2009. Across the years, warming significantly increased BNPP, f_BNPP, and RUE_BNPP by an average of 11.6%, 2.8%, and 6.6%, respectively. This indicates that BNPP was more sensitive to warming than aboveground NPP (ANPP) since warming did not change ANPP and RUE_ANPP much. Double precipitation stimulated ANPP, BNPP, and NPP but suppressed RUE_ANPP, RUE_BNPP, and RUE_NPP while half precipitation decreased ANPP, BNPP, and NPP but increased RUE_ANPP, RUE_BNPP, and RUE_NPP. Clipping interacted with altered precipitation in impacting RUE_ANPP, RUE_BNPP, and RUE_NPP, suggesting land use could confound the effects of precipitation changes on ecosystem processes. Soil moisture was found to be a main factor in regulating variation in ANPP, BNPP, and NPP while soil temperature was the dominant factor influencing f_BNPP. These findings suggest that BNPP is critical point to future research. Additionally, results from single-factor manipulative experiments should be treated with caution due to the non-additive interactive effects of warming with altered precipitation and land use (clipping).

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Regional quantification of arctic CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes remains difficult due to high landscape heterogeneity coupled with a sparse measurement network. Most of the arctic coastal tundra near Barrow, Alaska is part of the thaw lake cycle, which includes current thaw lakes and a 5500-year chronosequence of vegetated thaw lake basins. However, spatial variability in carbon fluxes from these features remains grossly understudied. Here we present an analysis of whole-ecosystem CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes from 20 thaw lake cycle features during the 2011 growing season. We found that the thaw lake cycle was largely responsible for spatial variation in CO₂ flux, mostly due to its control on productivity (GPP). Current lakes were significant CO₂ sources that varied little. Vegetated basins showed declining GPP and CO₂ sink with age (R² = 64% and 68%, respectively). CH₄ fluxes measured from a subset of 12 vegetated basins showed no relationship with age or CO₂ flux components. Instead, higher CH₄ fluxes were related to greater landscape wetness (R² = 57%) and thaw depth (additional R² = +28%). Spatial variation in CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes had good satellite remote sensing indicators, and we estimated the region to be a small CO₂ sink of -4.9 ± 2.4 (s.e.) g C m⁻² between 11 June and 25 August, which was countered by a CH₄ source of 2.1 ± 0.2 (s.e.) g C m⁻². Results from our scaling exercise showed that developing or validating regional estimates based on single tower sites can result in significant bias, on average by a factor 4 for CO₂ flux and 30% for CH₄ flux. Although our results are specific to the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska, the degree of landscape-scale variability, large-scale controls on carbon exchange, and implications for regional estimation seen here likely have wide relevance to other arctic landscapes.

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Variation in species’ responses to abiotic phenological cues under climate change may cause changes in temporal overlap among interacting taxa, with potential demographic consequences. Here we examine associations between the abiotic environment and plant-pollinator phenological synchrony using a long-term syrphid fly-flowering phenology dataset (1992-2011). Degree days above freezing, precipitation, and timing of snowmelt were investigated as predictors of phenology. Syrphids generally emerge after flowering onset and end their activity before the end of flowering. Neither flowering nor syrphid phenology has changed significantly over our 20-year record, consistent with a lack of directional change in climate variables over the same timeframe. Instead we document interannual variability in the abiotic environment and phenology. Timing of snowmelt was the best predictor of flowering onset and syrphid emergence. Snowmelt and degree days were the best predictors of the end of flowering, while degree days and precipitation best predicted the end of the syrphid period. Flowering advanced at a faster rate than syrphids in response to both advancing snowmelt and increasing temperature. Different rates of phenological advancements resulted in more days of temporal overlap between the flower-syrphid community in years of early snowmelt, because of extended activity periods. Phenological synchrony at the community level is therefore likely to be maintained for some time, even under advancing snowmelt conditions that are evident over longer-term records at our site. These results show that interacting taxa may respond to different phenological cues and to the same cues at different rates but still maintain phenological synchrony over a range of abiotic conditions. However, our results also indicate that some individual plant species may overlap with the syrphid community for fewer days under continued climate change. This highlights the role of interannual variation in these flower-syrphid interactions and shows that species-level responses can differ from community-level responses in non-intuitive ways.

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Ongoing global climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events, impacting population dynamics and community structure. There is, however, a critical lack of case studies considering how climatic perturbations affect biotic interactions. Here we document how an obligate seed dispersal mutualism was disrupted by a temporally anomalous and meteorologically extreme interlude of unseasonably frigid weather, with accompanying snowstorms, in sub-tropical China, during January-February 2008. Based on the analysis of 5892 fecal samples (representing six mammalian seed-dispersers), this event caused a substantial disruption to the relative seed dispersal function for the raisin tree Hovenia dulcis from pre-storm 6.29 (2006) and 11.47 (2007), down to 0.35 during the storm (2008). Crucially, this was due to impacts on mammalian seed-dispersers and not due to a paucity of fruit, where 4.63 fruit per branch were available in January 2008, versus 3.73 in 2006 and 3.58 in 2007. An induced dietary shift occurred among omnivorous carnivores during this event, from the consumption fruit to small mammals and birds, reducing their role in seed dispersal substantially. Induced range shift extinguished the functionality of herbivorous mammals completely, however seed dispersal function was compensated in-part by three omnivorous carnivores during post-storm years, and thus while the mutualism remained intact it was enacted by a narrower assemblage of species, rendering the system more vulnerable to extrinsic perturbations. The storm's extended effects also had anthropogenic corollaries – migrating ungulates becoming exposed to heightened levels of illegal hunting – causing long-term modification to the seed dispersal community and mutualism dynamics. Furthermore, degraded forests proved especially vulnerable to the storm's effects. Considering increasing climate variability and anthropogenic disturbance, the impacts of such massive, aberrant events warrant conservation concern, while affording unique insights into the stability of mutualisms and the processes that structure biodiversity and mediate ecosystem dynamics.

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Plants and herbivorous insects can each be dramatically affected by temperature. Climate warming may impact plant invasion success directly but also indirectly through changes in their natural enemies. To date, however, there are no tests of how climate warming shifts the interactions among invasive plants and their natural enemies to affect invasion success. Field surveys covering the full latitudinal range of invasive Alternanthera philoxeroides in China showed that a beetle introduced for bio-control was rare or absent at higher latitudes. In contrast, plant cover and mass increased with latitude. In a two-year field experiment near the northern limit of beetle distribution, we found the beetle sustained populations across years under elevated temperature, dramatically decreasing A. philoxeroides growth, but it failed to overwinter in ambient temperature. Together, these results suggest that warming will allow the natural enemy to expand its range, potentially benefiting biocontrol in regions that are currently too cold for the natural enemy. However, the invader may also expand its range further north in response to warming. In such cases where plants tolerate cold better than their natural enemies, the geographical gap between plant and herbivorous insect ranges may not disappear but will shift to higher latitudes, leading to a new zone of enemy release. Therefore, warming will not only affect plant invasions directly but also drive either enemy release or increase that will result in contrasting effects on invasive plants. The findings are also critical for future management of invasive species under climate change.

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Global warming and contamination represent two major threats to biodiversity that have the potential to interact synergistically. There is the potential for gradual local thermal adaptation and dispersal to higher latitudes to mitigate the susceptibility of organisms to contaminants and global warming at high latitudes. Here, we applied a space-for-time substitution approach to study the thermal dependence of the susceptibility of Ischnura elegans damselfly larvae to zinc in a common garden warming experiment (20°C and 24°C) with replicated populations from three latitudes spanning >1500 km in Europe. We observed a striking latitude-specific effect of temperature on the zinc-induced mortality pattern; local thermal adaptation along the latitudinal gradient made Swedish, but not French, damselfly larvae more susceptible to zinc at 24°C. Latitude- and temperature-specific differences in zinc susceptibility may be related to the amount of energy available to defend against and repair damage since Swedish larvae showed a much stronger zinc-induced reduction of food intake at 24°C. The pattern of local thermal adaptation indicates that the predicted temperature increase of 4°C by 2100 will strongly magnify the impact of a contaminant such as zinc at higher latitudes unless there is thermal evolution and/or migration of lower-latitude genotypes. Our results underscore the critical importance of studying the susceptibility to contaminants under realistic warming scenarios taking into account local thermal adaptation across natural temperature gradients.

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We projected effects of mid-21^st century climate on the early-life growth of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) in western United States streams. Air temperature and snowpack trends projected from climate models and observed 20^th century trends were used to predict future seasonal stream temperatures. Fish growth from winter to summer was projected with temperature-dependent models of egg development and juvenile growth. Based on temperature data from 115 sites, by mid-21^st century the effects of climate change are projected to be mixed. Fish in warm-region streams that are currently cooled by snowmelt will grow less, and fish in sub-optimally cool streams will grow more. Relative to 20^th century conditions, by mid-21^st century juvenile salmonids’ weights are expected to be lower in the Columbia Basin and California Central Valley but unchanged or greater in coastal and mountain streams. Because fish weight affects fish survival, the predicted changes in weight could impact population fitness depending on other factors such as density effects, food quality and quantity changes, habitat alterations, etc. The level of year-to-year variability in stream temperatures is high and our analysis suggests that identifying effects of climate change over the natural variability will be difficult except in a few streams.

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Rapid climate changes are occurring in the Arctic, with substantial repercussions for arctic ecosystems. It is challenging to assess ecosystem changes in remote polar environments, but one successful approach has entailed monitoring the diets of upper trophic level consumers. Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) and fatty acid carbon isotope (δ¹³C-FA) patterns were used to assess diets of East Greenland (EG) polar bears (Ursus maritimus) (n = 310) over the past three decades. QFASA-generated diet estimates indicated that, on average, EG bears mainly consumed arctic ringed seals (47.5 ± 2.1%) and migratory subarctic harp (30.6 ± 1.5%) and hooded (16.7 ± 1.3%) seals and rarely, if ever, consumed bearded seals, narwhals or walruses. Ringed seal consumption declined by 14%/decade over 28 years (90.1 ± 2.5% in 1984 to 33.9 ± 11.1% in 2011). Hooded seal consumption increased by 9.5%/decade (0.0 ± 0.0% in 1984 to 25.9 ± 9.1% in 2011). This increase may include harp seal, since hooded and harp seal FA signatures were not as well differentiated relative to other prey species. Declining δ¹³C-FA ratios supported shifts from more nearshore/benthic/ice-associated prey to more offshore/pelagic/open-water-associated prey, consistent with diet estimates. Increased hooded seal and decreased ringed seal consumption occurred during years when the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was lower. Thus, periods with warmer temperatures and less sea ice were associated with more subarctic and less arctic seal species consumption. These changes in the relative abundance, accessibility, or distribution of arctic and subarctic marine mammals may have health consequences for EG polar bears. For example, the diet change resulted in consistently slower temporal declines in adipose levels of legacy persistent organic pollutants, as the subarctic seals have higher contaminant burdens than arctic seals. Overall, considerable changes are occurring in the East Greenland marine ecosystem, with consequences for contaminant dynamics.

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Ectotherms are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate warming. Descriptions of habitat temperatures and predicted changes in climate usually consider mean monthly, seasonal or annual conditions. Ectotherms, however, do not simply experience mean conditions but are exposed to daily fluctuations in habitat temperatures. Here we highlight how temperature fluctuation can generate ‘realized’ thermal reaction (fitness) norms that differ from the ‘fundamental’ norms derived under standard constant temperatures. Using a mosquito as a model organism we find that temperature fluctuation reduces rate processes such as development under warm conditions, increases processes under cool conditions, and reduces both the optimum and the critical maximum temperature. Generalizing these effects for a range of terrestrial insects reveals that prevailing daily fluctuations in temperature should alter the sensitivity of species to climate warming by reducing ‘thermal safety margins’. Such effects of daily temperature dynamics have generally been ignored in the climate change literature.

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A literature survey of studies reporting nitrous oxide uptake in the soils of natural ecosystems is used to suggest that the median uptake potential is 4 μg m⁻² hr⁻¹. The highest values are nearly all associated with soils of wetland and peatland ecosystems. Globally, the consumption of nitrous oxide in soils is not likely to exceed 0.3 TgN/yr, indicating that the projected sink is not more than 2% of current estimated sources of N₂O in the atmosphere

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Despite growing recognition of the role that cities have in global biogeochemical cycles, urban systems are among the least understood of all ecosystems. Urban grasslands are expanding rapidly along with urbanization, which is expected to increase at unprecedented rates in upcoming decades. The large and increasing area of urban grasslands and their impact on water and air quality justify the need for a better understanding of their biogeochemical cycles. There is also great uncertainty about the effect that climate change, especially changes in winter snow cover, will have on nutrient cycles in urban grasslands. We aimed to evaluate how reduced snow accumulation directly affects winter soil frost dynamics, and indirectly greenhouse gas fluxes and the processing of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) during the subsequent growing season in northern urban grasslands. Both artificial and natural snow reduction increased winter soil frost, affecting winter microbial C and N processing, accelerating C and N cycles and increasing soil:atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange during the subsequent growing season. With lower snow accumulations that are predicted with climate change, we found decreases in N retention in these ecosystems, and increases in N₂O and CO₂ flux to the atmosphere, significantly increasing the global warming potential of urban grasslands. Our results suggest that the environmental impacts of these rapidly expanding ecosystems are likely to increase as climate change brings milder winters and more extensive soil frost.

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The aim of this study was to predict the combined effects of enhanced nitrogen (N) deposition and warming on phytoplankton development in high latitude and mountain lakes. Consequently, we assessed, in a series of enclosure experiments, how lake water nutrient stoichiometry and phytoplankton nutrient limitation varied over the growing season in 11 lakes situated along an altitudinal/climate gradient with low N deposition (<1 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) in northern subarctic Sweden. Short term bioassay experiments with N- and- P additions revealed that phytoplankton in high-alpine lakes were more prone to P-limitation, and with decreasing altitude became increasingly N- and NP co-limited. Nutrient limitation was additionally most obvious in mid-summer. There was also a strong positive correlation between phytoplankton growth and water temperature in the bioassays. Although excess nutrients were available in spring and autumn, on these occasions growth was likely constrained by low water temperatures. These results imply that enhanced N deposition over the Swedish mountain areas will, with the exception of high-alpine lakes, enhance biomass and drive phytoplankton from N- to P-limitation. However, if not accompanied by warming, N input from deposition will stimulate limited phytoplankton growth due to low water temperatures during large parts of the growing season. Direct effects of warming, allowing increased metabolic rates and an extension of the growing season, seems equally crucial to synergistically enhance phytoplankton development in these lakes.

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Elevated ozone (O₃) and limiting soil nitrogen (N) availability both negatively affect crop performance. However, less is known about how the combination of elevated O₃ and limiting N affect crop growth and metabolism. In this study, we grew tobacco (Nicotiana sylvestris) in ambient and elevated O₃ at two N levels (limiting and sufficient). Results at the whole plant, leaf and cellular level showed that primary metabolism was reduced by growth in limiting N, and that reduction was exacerbated by exposure to elevated O₃. Limiting N in tobacco reduced the rates of photosynthetic CO₂ uptake by 40.8% in ambient O₃-exposed plants, and by 58.6% in elevated O₃-exposed plants, compared to plants grown with sufficient N. Reductions in photosynthesis compounded to cause large differences in leaf and whole plant parameters including leaf number, leaf area and leaf and root biomass. These results were consistent with our meta-analysis of all published studies of plant responses to elevated O₃ and N availability. In tobacco N uptake and allocation was also affected by growth in limiting N and elevated O₃, and there was an O₃-induced compensatory response that resulted in increased N recycling from senescing leaves. In addition, transcript-based markers were used to track the progress through senescence, and indicated that limiting N and elevated O₃, separately and in combination, caused an acceleration of senescence. These results suggest that reductions in crop productivity in growing regions with poor soil fertility will be exacerbated by rising background O₃.

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Climate change (CC) and sea level rise (SLR) are phenomena that could have severe impacts on the distribution of coastal dune vegetation. To explore this we modeled the climatic niches of six coastal dunes plant species that grow along the shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, and projected climatic niches to future potential distributions based on two CC scenarios and SLR projections. Our analyses suggest that distribution of coastal plants will be severely limited, and more so in the case of local endemics (Chamaecrista chamaecristoides, Palafoxia lindenii, Cakile edentula). The possibilities of inland migration to the potential “new shoreline” will be limited by human infrastructure and ecosystem alteration that will lead to a “coastal squeeze” of the coastal habitats. Finally, we identified areas as future potential refuges for the six species in central Gulf of Mexico, and northern Yucatán Peninsula especially under CC and SLR scenarios.

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Human activities have significantly altered nitrogen (N) availability in most terrestrial ecosystems, with consequences for community composition and ecosystem functioning. While studies of how changes in N availability affect biodiversity and community composition are relatively common, much less is known about the effects of N inputs on the coupled biogeochemical cycling of N and phosphorus (P), and still fewer data exist regarding how increased N inputs affect the internal cycling of these two elements in plants. Nutrient resorption is an important driver of plant nutrient economies and of the quality of litter plants produce. Accordingly, resorption patterns have marked ecological implications for plant population and community fitness, as well as for ecosystem nutrient cycling. In a semi-arid grassland in northern China, we studied the effects of a wide-range of N inputs on foliar nutrient resorption of two dominant grasses, Leymus chinensis and Stipa grandis. After four years of treatments, N and P availability in soil and N and P concentrations in green and senesced grass leaves increased with increasing rates of N addition. Foliar N and P resorption significantly decreased along the N addition gradient, implying a resorption-mediated positive plant-soil feedback induced by N inputs. Furthermore, N:P resorption ratios were negatively correlated with the rates of N addition, indicating the sensitivity of plant N and P stoichiometry to N inputs. Taken together, the results demonstrate that N additions accelerate ecosystem uptake and turnover of both N and P in the temperate steppe and that N and P cycles are coupled in dynamic ways. The convergence of N and P resorption in response to N inputs emphasizes the importance of nutrient resorption as a pathway by which plants and ecosystems adjust in the face of increasing N availability.

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This paper proposes that carbon fluxes identified as being from land use and land-cover change (LULCC) include only that component of a flux that can be attributed to LULCC, exclusive of the effects of environmental change (CO₂, climate, N, etc.). This proposal seems too obvious to need saying, but published estimates of the LULCC flux are widely variable for reasons that have more to do with modeling environment than with LULCC.

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Nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions from soils contribute significantly to global warming. Mitigation of N₂O emissions is severely hampered by a lack of understanding of its main controls. Fluxes can only partly be predicted from soil abiotic factors and microbial analyses - a possible role for soil fauna has until now largely been overlooked.

We studied the effect of six groups of soil invertebrate fauna and tested the hypothesis that all of them increase N₂O emissions, although to different extents. We conducted three microcosm experiments with sandy soil and hay residue. Faunal groups included in our experiments were: fungal-feeding nematodes, mites, springtails, potworms, earthworms and isopods.

In experiment I, involving all 6 faunal groups, N₂O emissions declined with earthworms and potworms from 78.4 (control) to 37.0 (earthworms) or 53.5 (potworms) mg N₂O-N m^-2. In experiment II, with a higher soil-to-hay ratio and mites, springtails and potworms as faunal treatments, N₂O emissions increased with potworms from 51.9 (control) to 123.5 mg N₂O-N m^-2. Experiment III studied the effect of potworm density; we found that higher densities of potworms accelerated the peak of the N₂O emissions by five days (P < 0.001) but the cumulative N₂O emissions remained unaffected.

We propose that increased soil aeration by the soil fauna reduced N₂O emissions in experiment I, while in experiment II N₂O emissions were driven by increased nitrogen and carbon availability. In experiment III higher densities of potworms accelerated nitrogen and carbon availability and N₂O emissions but did not increase them.

Overall our data show that soil fauna can suppress, increase, delay or accelerate N₂O emissions from soil and should therefore be an integral part of future N₂O studies.

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Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered inter-specific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species’ size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit to biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (1) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (2) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (3) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically-explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.

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An experimental life support system (ELSS) was constructed to study, the interactive effects of multiple stressors on coastal and estuarine benthic communities, specifically perturbations driven by global climate change and anthropogenic environmental contamination. The ELSS allows researchers to control salinity, pH, temperature, ultraviolet radiation (UVR), tidal rhythms and exposure to selected contaminants. Unlike most microcosms previously described, our system enables true independent replication (including randomisation). In addition to this, it can be assembled using commercially available materials and equipment, thereby facilitating the replication of identical experimental setups in different geographical locations. Here, we validate the reproducibility and environmental quality of the system by comparing chemical and biological parameters recorded in our ELSS with those prevalent in the natural environment. Water, sediment microbial community and ragworm (the polychaete Hediste diversicolor) samples were obtained from four microcosms after 57 days of operation. In general, average concentrations of dissolved inorganic nutrients (NO₃^-; NH₄⁺ and PO₄ ⁻³) in the water-column of the ELSS experimental control units were within the range of concentrations recorded in the natural environment. While some shifts in bacterial community composition were observed between in situ and ELSS sediment samples, the relative abundance of most metabolically active bacterial taxa appeared to be stable. In addition, ELSS operation did not significantly affect survival, oxidative stress and neurological biomarkers of the model organism H. diversicolor. The validation data indicates that this system can be used to assess independent or interactive effects of climate change and environmental contamination on benthic communities. Researchers will be able to simulate the effects of these stressors on processes driven by microbial communities, sediment and seawater chemistry and to evaluate potential consequences to sediment toxicity using model organisms such as Hediste diversicolor.

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Humid tropical forests have the fastest rates of organic matter decomposition globally, which often coincide with fluctuating oxygen (O₂) availability in surface soils. Microbial iron (Fe) reduction generates reduced iron (Fe(II)) under anaerobic conditions, which oxidizes to Fe(III) under subsequent aerobic conditions. We demonstrate that Fe(II) oxidation stimulates organic matter decomposition via two mechanisms: 1) organic matter oxidation, likely driven by reactive oxygen species, and 2) increased dissolved organic carbon (DOC) availability, likely driven by acidification. Phenol oxidative activity increased linearly with Fe(II) concentrations (p < 0.0001, pseudo R² = 0.79) in soils sampled within and among five tropical forest sites. A similar pattern occurred in the absence of soil, suggesting an abiotic driver of this reaction. No phenol oxidative activity occurred in soils under anaerobic conditions, implying the importance of oxidants such as O₂ or hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) in addition to Fe(II). Reactions between Fe(II) and H₂O₂ generate hydroxyl radical, a strong non-selective oxidant of organic compounds. We found increasing consumption of H₂O₂ as soil Fe(II) concentrations increased, suggesting that reactive oxygen species produced by Fe(II) oxidation explained variation in phenol oxidative activity among samples. Amending soils with Fe(II) at field concentrations stimulated short-term C mineralization by up to 270 %, likely via a second mechanism. Oxidation of Fe(II) drove a decrease in pH and a monotonic increase in DOC; a decline of two pH units doubled DOC, likely stimulating microbial respiration. We obtained similar results by manipulating soil acidity independently of Fe(II), implying that Fe(II) oxidation affected C substrate availability via pH fluctuations, in addition to producing reactive oxygen species. Iron oxidation coupled to organic matter decomposition contributes to rapid rates of C cycling across humid tropical forests in spite of periodic O₂ limitation, and may help explain the rapid turnover of complex C molecules in these soils.

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Few studies have quantitatively projected changes in demography in response to climate change, yet doing so can provide important insights into the processes that may lead to population declines and changes in species distributions. Using a long-term mark-recapture data set, we examined the influence of multiple direct and indirect effects of weather on adult and juvenile survival for a population of Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia) in California. We found evidence for a positive, direct effect of winter temperature on adult survival, and a positive, indirect effect of prior rainy season precipitation on juvenile survival, which was consistent with an effect of precipitation on food availability during the breeding season. We used these relationships, and climate projections of significantly warmer and slightly drier winter weather by the year 2100, to project a significant increase in mean adult survival (12-17%) and a slight decrease in mean juvenile survival (4-6%) under the B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. Together with results from previous studies on seasonal fecundity and post-fledging survival in this population, we integrated these results in a population model and projected increases in the population growth rate under both climate change scenarios. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple, direct and indirect effects of weather throughout the annual cycle, as well as differences in the responses of each life stage to climate change. Projecting demographic responses to climate change can identify not only how populations will be affected by climate change, but also indicate the demographic process(es) and specific mechanisms that may be responsible. This information can in turn inform climate change adaptation plans, help prioritize future research, and identify where limited conservation resources will be most effectively and efficiently spent.

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Understanding how environmental variation influences the distribution of parasite diversity is critical if we are to anticipate disease emergence risks associated with global change. However, choosing the relevant variables for modelling current and future parasite distributions may be difficult: candidate predictors are many, and they seldom are statistically independent. This problem often leads to simplistic models of current and projected future parasite distributions, with climatic variables prioritized over potentially important landscape features or host population attributes. We studied avian blood parasites of the genera Plasmodium, Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon (which are viewed as potential emergent pathogens) in 37 Iberian blackcap Sylvia atricapilla populations. We used Partial Least Squares regression to assess the relative importance of a wide array of putative determinants of variation in the diversity of these parasites, including climate, landscape features and host population migration. Both prevalence and richness of parasites were predominantly related to climate (an effect which was primarily, but not exclusively driven by variation in temperature), but landscape features and host migration also explained variation in parasite diversity. Remarkably, different models emerged for each parasite genus, although all parasites were studied in the same host species. Our results show that parasite distribution models, which are usually based on climatic variables alone, improve by including other types of predictors. Moreover, closely related parasites may show different relationships to the same environmental influences (both in magnitude and direction). Thus a model used to develop one parasite distribution can probably not be applied identically even to the most similar host-parasite systems.

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Human activities are decreasing biodiversity and changing the climate worldwide. Both global change drivers have been shown to affect ecosystem functioning, but they may also act in concert in a non-additive way. We studied early-stage litter mass loss rates and soil microbial properties (basal respiration and microbial biomass) during the summer season in response to plant species richness and summer drought in a large grassland biodiversity experiment, the Jena Experiment, Germany.

In line with our expectations, decreasing plant diversity and summer drought decreased litter mass loss rates and soil microbial properties. In contrast to our hypotheses, however, this was only true for mass loss of standard litter (wheat straw) used in all plots, and not for plant community-specific litter mass loss. We found no interactive effects between global change drivers, i.e., drought reduced litter mass loss rates and soil microbial properties irrespective of plant diversity. High mass loss rates of plant community-specific litter and low responsiveness to drought relative to the standard litter indicate that soil microbial communities were adapted to decomposing community-specific plant litter material including lower susceptibility to dry conditions during summer months. Moreover, higher microbial enzymatic diversity at high plant diversity may have caused elevated mass loss of standard litter.

Our results indicate that plant diversity loss and summer drought independently impede soil processes. However, soil decomposer communities may be highly adapted to decomposing plant community-specific litter material, even in situations of environmental stress. Results of standard litter mass loss moreover suggest that decomposer communities under diverse plant communities are able to cope with a greater variety of plant inputs possibly making them less responsive to biotic changes.

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Many species are expanding their distributions to higher latitudes due to global warming. Understanding the mechanisms underlying these distribution shifts is critical for better understanding the impacts of climate changes. The climate envelope approach is widely used to model and predict species distribution shifts with changing climates. Biotic interactions between species, however, may also influence species distributions, and a better understanding of biotic interactions could improve predictions based solely on climate envelope models. Along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, USA, sub-tropical black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) at the northern limit of its distribution grows sympatrically with temperate salt marsh plants in Florida, Louisiana, and Texas. In recent decades, freeze-free winters have led to an expansion of black mangrove into salt marshes. We examined how biotic interactions between black mangrove and salt marsh vegetation along the Texas coast varied across 1) a latitudinal gradient (associated with a winter-temperature gradient); 2) the elevational gradient within each marsh (which creates different marsh habitats); and 3) different life history stages of black mangroves (seedlings versus juvenile trees). Each of these variables affected the strength or nature of biotic interactions between black mangrove and salt marsh vegetation: 1) Salt marsh vegetation facilitated black mangrove seedlings at their high-latitude distribution limit, but inhibited black mangrove seedlings at lower latitudes; 2) mangroves performed well at intermediate elevations, but grew and survived poorly in high and low marsh habitats; 3) the effect of salt marsh vegetation on black mangroves switched from negative to neutral as black mangroves grew from seedlings into juvenile trees. These results indicate that the expansion of black mangroves is mediated by complex biotic interactions. A better understanding of the impacts of climate change on ecological communities requires incorporating context-dependent biotic interactions into species range models.

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Like many mid-latitude ecosystems, Mediterranean forests will suffer longer and more intense droughts with the ongoing climate change. The responses to drought in long-lived trees differ depending on the time scale considered, and short term responses are currently better understood than longer term acclimation.

We assessed the temporal changes in trees facing a chronic reduction in water availability by comparing leaf-scale physiological traits, branch-scale hydraulic traits, and stand-scale biomass partitioning in the evergreen Quercus ilex across a regional precipitation gradient (long term changes) and in a partial throughfall exclusion experiment (TEE, medium term changes).

At the leaf scale, gas exchange, mass per unit area and nitrogen concentration showed homeostatic responses to drought as they did not change among the sites of the precipitation gradient or in the experimental treatments of the TEE. A similar homeostatic response was observed for the xylem vulnerability to cavitation at the branch scale. In contrast, the ratio of leaf area over sapwood area (LA/SA) in young branches exhibited a transient response to drought because it decreased in response to the TEE the 4 first years of treatment, but did not change among the sites of the gradient. At the stand scale, leaf area index (LAI) decreased, and the ratios of stem sapwood area to LAI and of fine root area to LAI both increased in trees subjected to throughfall exclusion and from the wettest to the driest site of the gradient.

Taken together these results suggest that acclimation to chronic drought in long-lived Q. ilex is mediated by changes in hydraulic allometry that shift progressively from low (branch) to high (stand) organizational levels, and act to maintain the leaf water potential within the range of xylem hydraulic function and leaf photosynthetic assimilation.

© 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Climate change is expected to influence the viability of populations both directly and indirectly, via species interactions. The effects of large-scale climate change are also likely to interact with local habitat conditions. Management actions designed to preserve threatened species therefore need to adapt both to the prevailing climate and local conditions. Yet, few studies have separated the direct and indirect effects of climatic variables on the viability of local populations, and discussed the implications for optimal management. We used 30 years of demographic data to estimate the simultaneous effects of management practice and among-year variation in four climatic variables on individual survival, growth and fecundity in one coastal and one inland population of the perennial orchid Dactylorhiza lapponica in Norway. Current management, mowing, is expected to reduce competitive interactions. Statistical models of how climate and management practice influenced vital rates were incorporated into matrix population models to quantify effects on population growth rate. Effects of climate differed between mown and control plots in both populations. In particular, population growth rate increased more strongly with summer temperature in mown plots than in control plots. Population growth rate declined with spring temperature in the inland population, and with precipitation in the coastal population, and the decline was stronger in control plots in both populations. These results illustrate that both direct and indirect effects of climate change are important for population viability and that net effects depend both on local abiotic conditions and on biotic conditions in terms of management practice and intensity of competition. The results also show that effects of management practices influencing competitive interactions can strongly depend on climatic factors. We conclude that interactions between climate and management should be considered to reliably predict future population viability and optimize conservation actions.

© 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Feeding nine to ten billion people by 2050 and preventing dangerous climate change are two of the greatest challenges facing humanity. Both challenges must be met whilst reducing the impact of land management on ecosystem services that deliver vital goods and services, and support human health and well-being. Few studies to date have considered the interactions between these challenges. In this study we briefly, outline the challenges, review the supply- and demand-side climate mitigation potential available in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFLOU) sector, and options for delivering food security. We briefly outline some of the synergies and trade-offs afforded by mitigation practices, before presenting an assessment of the mitigation potential possible in the AFOLU sector under possible future scenarios in which demand-side measures co-delivery to aid food security.

We conclude that whilst supply-side mitigation measures, such as changes in land management, might either enhance or negatively impact food security, demand-side mitigation measures, such as reduced waste or demand for livestock products, should benefit both food security and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. Demand-side measures offer a greater potential (1.5-15.6 Gt CO₂-eq. yr⁻¹) in meeting both challenges than do supply-side measures (1.5-4.3 Gt CO₂-eq. yr⁻¹ at carbon prices between 20 and 100 US$ tCO₂-eq.⁻¹), but given the enormity of challenges, all options need to be considered. Supply-side measures should be implemented immediately, focussing on those that allow the production of more agricultural product per unit of input. For demand-side measures, given the difficulties in their implementation and lag in their effectiveness, policy should be introduced quickly, and should aim to co-deliver to other policy agendas, such as improving environmental quality, or improving dietary health. These problems facing humanity in the 21^st Century are extremely challenging, and policy that addresses multiple objectives is required now more than ever.

© 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Experimental study of the effects of projected climate change on plant phenology allows us to isolate effects of warming on life history events such as leaf out. We simulated a 2°C temperature increase and 20% precipitation increase in a recently harvested temperate deciduous forest community in central Pennsylvania, USA, and observed the leaf out phenology of all species in 2009 and 2010. Over 130 plant species were monitored weekly in study plots, but due to high variability in species composition among plots, species were grouped into five functional groups: short forbs, tall forbs, shrubs, small trees, and large trees. Tall forbs and large trees, which usually emerge in the late spring, advanced leaf out 14-18 days in response to warming. Short forbs, shrubs, and small trees emerge early in spring and did not alter their phenology in response to warming or increased precipitation treatments. Earlier leaf out of tall forbs and large trees coincided with almost three weeks of increased community-level leaf area index (LAI), indicating greater competition and a condensed spring green-up period. While phenology of large trees and tall forbs appears to be strongly influenced by temperature-based growth cues, our results suggest that photoperiod and chilling cues more strongly influence the leaf out of other functional groups. Reduced freeze events and warmer temperatures from predicted climate change will interact with non-temperature growth cues to have cascading consequences throughout the ecosystem.

Although it is established that there exist potential trade-offs between grain yield and grain quality in wheat exposed to elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂) and ozone (O₃), their underlying causes remain poorly explored. To investigate the processes affecting grain quality under altered CO₂ and O₃, we analysed 57 experiments with CO₂ or O₃ exposure in different exposure systems. The study covered 24 cultivars studied in 112 experimental treatments from 11 countries. A significant growth dilution effect on grain protein was found: a change in grain yield of 10% by O₃ was associated with a change in grain protein yield of 8.1% (R²=0.96), while a change in yield effect of 10% by CO₂ was linked to a change in grain protein yield effect of 7.5% (R²=0.74). Superimposed on this effect, elevated CO₂, but not O₃, had a significant negative effect on grain protein yield also in the absence of effects on grain yield, indicating that there exists a process by which CO₂ restricts grain protein accumulation, which is absent for O₃. Grain mass, another quality trait, was more strongly affected by O₃ than grain number, while the opposite was true for CO₂. Harvest index was strongly and negatively influenced by O₃, but was unaffected by CO₂.

We conclude that yield vs. protein trade-offs for wheat in response to CO₂ and O₃ are constrained by close relationships between effects on grain biomass and less than proportional effects on grain protein. An important and novel finding was that elevated CO₂ has a direct negative effect on grain protein accumulation independent of the yield effect, supporting recent evidence of CO₂-induced impairment of nitrate uptake/assimilation. Finally, our results demonstrated that processes underlying responses of grain yield vs. quality trade-offs are very different in wheat exposed to elevated O₃ compared to elevated CO₂.

Currently, forests in the northeastern United States are net sinks of atmospheric carbon. Under future climate change scenarios, the combined effects of climate change and nitrogen deposition on soil decomposition, aboveground processes, and the forest carbon balance remain unclear. We applied carbon stock, flux, and isotope data from field studies at the Harvard forest, Massachusetts, to the ForCent model, which integrates above- and belowground processes. The model was able to represent decadal-scale measurements in soil C stocks, mean residence times, fluxes, and responses to a warming and N addition experiment. The calibrated model then simulated the longer term impacts of warming and N deposition on the distribution of forest carbon stocks. For simulation to 2030, soil warming resulted in a loss of soil organic matter (SOM), decreased allocation to belowground biomass, and gain of aboveground carbon, primarily in large wood, with an overall small gain in total system carbon. Simulated nitrogen addition resulted in a small increase in belowground carbon pools, but a large increase in aboveground large wood pools, resulting in a substantial increase in total system carbon. Combined warming and nitrogen addition simulations showed a net gain in total system carbon, predominately in the aboveground carbon pools, but offset somewhat by losses in SOM. Hence, the impact of continuation of anthropogenic N deposition on the hardwood forests of the northeastern United States may exceed the impact of warming in terms of total ecosystem carbon stocks. However, it should be cautioned that these simulations do not include some climate-related processes, different responses from changing tree species composition. Despite uncertainties, this effort is among the first to use decadal-scale observations of soil carbon dynamics and results of multifactor manipulations to calibrate a model that can project integrated aboveground and belowground responses to nitrogen and climate changes for subsequent decades.

The distribution and abundance of seagrass ecosystems could change significantly over the coming century due to sea level rise (SLR). Coastal managers require mechanistic understanding of the processes affecting seagrass response to SLR to maximize their conservation and associated provision of ecosystem services. In Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia, vast seagrass meadows supporting populations of sea turtles and dugongs are juxtaposed with the multiple stressors associated with a large and rapidly expanding human population. Here, the interactive effects of predicted SLR, changes in water clarity, and land use on future distributions of seagrass in Moreton Bay were quantified. A habitat distribution model of present day seagrass in relation to benthic irradiance and wave height was developed which correctly classified habitats in 83% of cases. Spatial predictions of seagrass and presence derived from the model and bathymetric data were used to initiate a SLR inundation model. Bathymetry was iteratively modified based on SLR and sedimentary accretion in seagrass to simulate potential seagrass habitat at 10 year time steps until 2100. The area of seagrass habitat was predicted to decline by 17% by 2100 under a scenario of SLR of 1.1 m. A scenario including the removal of impervious surfaces, such as roads and houses, from newly inundated regions, demonstrated that managed retreat of the shoreline could potentially reduce the overall decline in seagrass habitat to just 5%. The predicted reduction in area of seagrass habitat could be offset by an improvement in water clarity of 30%. Greater improvements in water clarity would be necessary for larger magnitudes of SLR. Management to improve water quality will provide present and future benefits to seagrasses under climate change and should be a priority for managers seeking to compensate for the effects of global change on these valuable habitats.

High ground-level ozone concentrations are typical of Mediterranean climates. Plant exposure to this oxidant is known to reduce carbon assimilation. Ozone damage has been traditionally measured through manipulative experiments that do not consider long-term exposure and propagate large uncertainty by up-scaling leaf-level observations to ecosystem-level interpretations. We analyzed long-term continuous measurements (>9 site-years at 30 min resolution) of environmental and eco-physiological parameters at three Mediterranean ecosystems: (i) forest site dominated by Pinus ponderosa in the Sierra Mountains in California, USA; (ii) forest site composed of a mixture of Quercus spp. and P. pinea in the Tyrrhenian sea coast near Rome, Italy; and (iii) orchard site of Citrus sinensis cultivated in the California Central Valley, USA. We hypothesized that higher levels of ozone concentration in the atmosphere result in a decrease in carbon assimilation by trees under field conditions. This hypothesis was tested using time series analysis such as wavelet coherence and spectral Granger causality, and complemented with multivariate linear and nonlinear statistical analyses. We found that reduction in carbon assimilation was more related to stomatal ozone deposition than to ozone concentration. The negative effects of ozone occurred within a day of exposure/uptake. Decoupling between carbon assimilation and stomatal aperture increased with the amount of ozone pollution. Up to 12–19% of the carbon assimilation reduction in P. ponderosa and in the Citrus plantation was explained by higher stomatal ozone deposition. In contrast, the Italian site did not show reductions in gross primary productivity either by ozone concentration or stomatal ozone deposition, mainly due to the lower ozone concentrations in the periurban site over the shorter period of investigation. These results highlight the importance of plant adaptation/sensitivity under field conditions, and the importance of continuous long-term measurements to explain ozone damage to real-world forests and calculate metrics for ozone-risk assessment.

Although the goal of doubling food demand while simultaneously reducing agricultural environmental damage has become widely accepted, the dominant agricultural paradigm still considers high yields and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity to be in conflict with one another. Here, we achieved an increase in maize yield of 70% in on-farm experiments by closing the yield gap and evaluated the trade-off between grain yield, nitrogen (N) fertilizer use, and GHG emissions. Based on two groups of N application experiments in six locations for 16 on-farm site-years, an integrated soil-crop system (HY) approach achieved 93% of the yield potential and averaged 14.8 Mg ha⁻¹ maize grain yield at 15.5% moisture. This is 70% higher than current crop (CC) management. More importantly, the optimal N rate for the HY system was 250 kg N ha⁻¹, which is only 38% more N fertilizer input than that applied in the CC system. Both the N₂O emission intensity and GHG intensity increased exponentially as the N application rate increased, and the response curve for the CC system was always higher than that for the HY system. Although the N application rate increased by 38%, N₂O emission intensity and the GHG intensity of the HY system were reduced by 12% and 19%, respectively. These on-farm observations indicate that closing the yield gap alongside efficient N management should therefore be prominent among a portfolio of strategies to meet food demand while reducing GHG intensity at the same time.

Increased susceptibility to allergies has been documented in the Western world in recent decades. However, a comprehensive understanding of its causes is not yet available. It is therefore essential to understand trends and mechanisms of allergy-inducing agents, such as fungal conidia. In this study, we investigated the hypothesis that environmental conditions linked to global atmospheric changes can affect the allergenicity of Aspergillus fumigatus, a common allergenic fungal species in indoor and outdoor environments and in airborne particulate matter. We show that fungi grown under present-day CO₂ levels (392 ppm) exhibit 8.5 and 3.5 fold higher allergenicity compared to fungi grown at preindustrial (280 ppm) and double (560 ppm) CO₂ levels, respectively. A corresponding trend is observed in the expression of genes encoding for known allergenic proteins and in the major allergen Asp f1 concentrations, possibly due to physiological changes such as respiration rates and the nitrogen content of the fungus, influenced by the CO₂ concentrations. Increased carbon and nitrogen levels in the growth medium also lead to a significant increase in the allergenicity. We propose that climatic changes such as increasing atmospheric CO₂ levels and changes in the fungal growth medium may impact the ability of allergenic fungi such as A. fumigatus to induce allergies.

There is increasing concern that widespread forest decline could occur in regions of the world where droughts are predicted to increase in frequency and severity as a result of climate change. The average annual leaf area index (LAI) is an indicator of canopy cover and the difference between the annual maximum and minimum LAI is an indicator of annual leaf turnover. In this study, we analyzed satellite-derived estimates of monthly LAI across forested coastal catchments of southwest Western Australia over a 12 year period (2000–2011) that included the driest year on record for the last 60 years. We observed that over the 12 year study period, the spatial pattern of average annual satellite-derived LAI values was linearly related to mean annual rainfall. However, interannual changes to LAI in response to changes in annual rainfall were far less than expected from the long-term LAI-rainfall trend. This buffered response was investigated using a physiological growth model and attributed to availability of deep soil moisture and/or groundwater storage. The maintenance of high LAIs may be linked to a long-term decline in areal average underground water storage and diminished summer flows, with an emerging trend toward more ephemeral flow regimes.

Predicting climate-driven changes in plant distribution is crucial for biodiversity conservation and management under recent climate change. Climate warming is expected to induce movement of species upslope and towards higher latitudes. However, the mechanisms and physiological processes behind the altitudinal and latitudinal distribution range of a tree species are complex and depend on each tree species features and vary over ontogenetic stages. We investigated the altitudinal distribution differences between juvenile and adult individuals of seven major European tree species along elevational transects covering a wide latitudinal range from southern Spain (37°N) to northern Sweden (67°N). By comparing juvenile and adult distributions (shifts on the optimum position and the range limits) we assessed the response of species to present climate conditions in relation to previous conditions that prevailed when adults were established. Mean temperature increased by 0.86 °C on average at our sites during the last decade compared with previous 30-year period. Only one of the species studied, Abies alba, matched the expected predictions under the observed warming, with a maximum abundance of juveniles at higher altitudes than adults. Three species, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, showed an opposite pattern while for other three species, such as Quercus ilex, Acer pseudoplatanus and Q. petraea, we were no able to detect changes in distribution. These findings are in contrast with theoretical predictions and show that tree responses to climate change are complex and are obscured not only by other environmental factors but also by internal processes related to ontogeny and demography.

An elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration ([CO₂]) can reduce stomatal conductance of leaves for most plant species, including rice (Oryza sativa L.). However, few studies have quantified seasonal changes in the effects of elevated [CO₂] on canopy evapotranspiration, which integrates the response of stomatal conductance of individual leaves with other responses, such as leaf area expansion, changes in leaf surface temperature, and changes in developmental stages, in field conditions. We conducted a field experiment to measure seasonal changes in stomatal conductance of the uppermost leaves and in the evapotranspiration, transpiration, and evaporation rates using a lysimeter method. The study was conducted for flooded rice under open-air CO₂ elevation. Stomatal conductance decreased by 27% under elevated [CO₂], averaged throughout the growing season, and evapotranspiration decreased by an average of 5% during the same period. The decrease in daily evapotranspiration caused by elevated [CO₂] was more significantly correlated with air temperature and leaf area index (LAI) rather than with other parameters of solar radiation, days after transplanting, vapor-pressure deficit and FAO reference evapotranspiration. This indicates that higher air temperatures, within the range from 16 to 27 °C, and a larger LAI, within the range from 0 to 4 m² m⁻², can increase the magnitude of the decrease in evapotranspiration rate caused by elevated [CO₂]. The crop coefficient (i.e. the evapotranspiration rate divided by the FAO reference evapotranspiration rate) was 1.24 at ambient [CO₂] and 1.17 at elevated [CO₂]. This study provides the first direct measurement of the effects of elevated [CO₂] on rice canopy evapotranspiration under open-air conditions using the lysimeter method, and the results will improve future predictions of water use in rice fields.

Forests around the world are subject to risk of high rates of tree growth decline and increased tree mortality from combinations of climate warming and drought, notably in semi-arid settings. Here, we assess how climate warming has affected tree growth in one of the world's most extensive zones of semi-arid forests, in Inner Asia, a region where lack of data limits our understanding of how climate change may impact forests. We show that pervasive tree growth declines since 1994 in Inner Asia have been confined to semi-arid forests, where growing season water stress has been rising due to warming-induced increases in atmospheric moisture demand. A causal link between increasing drought and declining growth at semi-arid sites is corroborated by correlation analyses comparing annual climate data to records of tree-ring widths. These ring-width records tend to be substantially more sensitive to drought variability at semi-arid sites than at semi-humid sites. Fire occurrence and insect/pathogen attacks have increased in tandem with the most recent (2007–2009) documented episode of tree mortality. If warming in Inner Asia continues, further increases in forest stress and tree mortality could be expected, potentially driving the eventual regional loss of current semi-arid forests.

Coral reefs across the world have been seriously degraded and have a bleak future in response to predicted global warming and ocean acidification (OA). However, this is not the first time that biocalcifying organisms, including corals, have faced the threat of extinction. The end-Triassic mass extinction (200 million years ago) was the most severe biotic crisis experienced by modern marine invertebrates, which selected against biocalcifiers; this was followed by the proliferation of another invertebrate group, sponges. The duration of this sponge-dominated period far surpasses that of alternative stable-ecosystem or phase-shift states reported on modern day coral reefs and, as such, a shift to sponge-dominated reefs warrants serious consideration as one future trajectory of coral reefs. We hypothesise that some coral reefs of today may become sponge reefs in the future, as sponges and corals respond differently to changing ocean chemistry and environmental conditions. To support this hypothesis, we discuss: (i) the presence of sponge reefs in the geological record; (ii) reported shifts from coral- to sponge-dominated systems; and (iii) direct and indirect responses of the sponge holobiont and its constituent parts (host and symbionts) to changes in temperature and pH. Based on this evidence, we propose that sponges may be one group to benefit from projected climate change and ocean acidification scenarios, and that increased sponge abundance represents a possible future trajectory for some coral reefs, which would have important implications for overall reef functioning.

Around 4.4 million ha of land in USDA Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) contracts will expire between 2013 and 2018 and some will likely return to crop production. No-till (NT) management offers the potential to reduce the global warming costs of CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O emissions during CRP conversion, but to date there have been no CRP conversion tillage comparisons. In 2009, we converted portions of three 9–21 ha CRP fields in Michigan to conventional tillage (CT) or NT soybean production and reserved a fourth field for reference. Both CO₂ and N₂O fluxes increased following herbicide application in all converted fields, but in the CT treatment substantial and immediate N₂O and CO₂ fluxes occurred after tillage. For the initial 201-day conversion period, average daily N₂O fluxes (g N₂O-N ha⁻¹ d⁻¹) were significantly different in the order: CT (47.5 ± 6.31, n = 6) ≫ NT (16.7 ± 2.45, n = 6) ≫ reference (2.51 ± 0.73, n = 4). Similarly, soil CO₂ fluxes in CT were 1.2 times those in NT and 3.1 times those in the unconverted CRP reference field. All treatments were minor sinks for CH₄ (−0.69 ± 0.42 to −1.86 ± 0.37 g CH₄–C ha⁻¹ d⁻¹) with no significant differences among treatments. The positive global warming impact (GWI) of converted soybean fields under both CT (11.5 Mg CO₂e ha⁻¹) and NT (2.87 Mg CO₂e ha⁻¹) was in contrast to the negative GWI of the unconverted reference field (−3.5 Mg CO₂e ha⁻¹) with on-going greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. N₂O contributed 39.3% and 55.0% of the GWI under CT and NT systems with the remainder contributed by CO₂ (60.7% and 45.0%, respectively). Including foregone mitigation, we conclude that NT management can reduce GHG costs by ~60% compared to CT during initial CRP conversion.

Climate change impacts tree species differentially by exerting unique pressures and altering their suitable habitats. We previously predicted these changes in suitable habitat for current and future climates using a species habitat model (DISTRIB) in the eastern United States. Based on the accuracy of the model, the species assemblages should eventually reflect the new quasi-equilibrium suitable habitats (~2100) after accounting for the lag in colonization. However, it is an open question if and when these newly suitable habitats will be colonized under current fragmented landscapes and realistic migration rates. To evaluate this, we used a spatially explicit cell-based model (SHIFT) that estimates colonization potentials under current fragmented habitats and several estimates of historical migration rates at a 1 km resolution. Computation time, which was previously the biggest constraint, was overcome by a novel application of convolution and Fast Fourier Transforms. SHIFT outputs, when intersected with future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB, allow assessment of colonization potential under future climates. In this article, we show how our approach can be used to screen multiple tree species for their colonization potentials under climate change. In particular, we use the DISTRIB and SHIFT models in combination to assess if the future dominant forest types in the north will really be dominated by oaks, as modelled via DISTRIB. Even under optimistic scenarios, we conclude that only a small fraction of the suitable habitats of oaks predicted by DISTRIB is likely to be occupied within 100 years, and this will be concentrated in the first 10–20 km from the current boundary. We also show how DISTRIB and SHIFT can be used to evaluate the potential for assisted migration of vulnerable tree species, and discuss the dynamics of colonization at range limits.

Hydrology drives the carbon balance of wetlands by controlling the uptake and release of CO₂ and CH₄. Longer dry periods in between heavier precipitation events predicted for the Everglades region, may alter the stability of large carbon pools in this wetland's ecosystems. To determine the effects of drought on CO₂ fluxes and CH₄ emissions, we simulated changes in hydroperiod with three scenarios that differed in the onset rate of drought (gradual, intermediate, and rapid transition into drought) on 18 freshwater wetland monoliths collected from an Everglades short-hydroperiod marsh. Simulated drought, regardless of the onset rate, resulted in higher net CO₂ losses net ecosystem exchange (NEE) over the 22-week manipulation. Drought caused extensive vegetation dieback, increased ecosystem respiration (R_eco), and reduced carbon uptake gross ecosystem exchange (GEE). Photosynthetic potential measured by reflective indices (photochemical reflectance index, water index, normalized phaeophytinization index, and the normalized difference vegetation index) indicated that water stress limited GEE and inhibited R_eco. As a result of drought-induced dieback, NEE did not offset methane production during periods of inundation. The average ratio of net CH₄ to NEE over the study period was 0.06, surpassing the 100-year greenhouse warming compensation point for CH₄ (0.04). Drought-induced diebacks of sawgrass (C₃) led to the establishment of the invasive species torpedograss (C₄) when water was resupplied. These changes in the structure and function indicate that freshwater marsh ecosystems can become a net source of CO₂ and CH₄ to the atmosphere, even following an extended drought. Future changes in precipitation patterns and drought occurrence/duration can change the carbon storage capacity of freshwater marshes from sinks to sources of carbon to the atmosphere. Therefore, climate change will impact the carbon storage capacity of freshwater marshes by influencing water availability and the potential for positive feedbacks on radiative forcing.

As the effects of the Global Climate Changes on the costal regions of Central and South Americas advance, there is proportionally little research being made to understand such impacts. This commentary puts forward a series of propositions of strategies to improve performance of Central and South American science and policy making in order to cope with the future impacts of the Global Climate Changes in their coastal habitats.

Dosidicus gigas (jumbo or Humboldt squid) is a semelparous, major predator of the eastern Pacific that is ecologically and commercially important. In the Gulf of California, these animals mature at large size (>55 cm mantle length) in 1–1.5 years and have supported a major commercial fishery in the Guaymas Basin during the last 20 years. An El Niño event in 2009–2010, was accompanied by a collapse of this fishery, and squid in the region showed major changes in the distribution and life-history strategy. Large squid abandoned seasonal coastal-shelf habitats in 2010 and instead were found in the Salsipuedes Basin to the north, an area buffered from the effects of El Niño by tidal upwelling and a well-mixed water column. The commercial fishery also relocated to this region. Although large squid were not found in the Guaymas Basin from 2010 to 2012, small squid were abundant and matured at an unusually small mantle-length (<30 cm) and young age (approximately 6 months). Juvenile squid thus appeared to respond to El Niño with an alternative life-history trajectory in which gigantism and high fecundity in normally productive coastal-shelf habitats were traded for accelerated reproduction at small size in an offshore environment. Both small and large mature squid, were present in the Salsipuedes Basin during 2011, indicating that both life- history strategies can coexist. Hydro-acoustic data, reveal that squid biomass in this study area nearly doubled between 2010 and 2011, primarily due to a large increase in small squid that were not susceptible to the fishery. Such a climate-driven switch in size-at-maturity may allow D. gigas to rapidly adapt to and cope with El Niño. This ability is likely to be an important factor in conjunction with longerterm climate-change and the potential ecological impacts of this invasive predator on marine ecosystems.

In humid ecosystems, the rate of methane (CH₄) oxidation by soil-dwelling methane-oxidizing bacteria (MOB) is controlled by soil texture and soil water holding capacity, both of which limit the diffusion of atmospheric CH₄ into the soil. However, it remains unclear whether these same mechanisms control CH₄ oxidation in more arid soils. This study was designed to measure the proximate controls of potential CH₄ oxidation in semiarid soils during different seasons. Using a unique and well-constrained 3-million-year-old semiarid substrate age gradient, we were able to hold state factors constant while exploring the relationship between seasonal potential CH₄ oxidation rates and soil texture, soil water holding capacity, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). We measured unexpectedly higher rates of potential CH₄ oxidation in the wet season than the dry season. Although other studies have attributed low CH₄ oxidation rates in dry soils to desiccation of MOB, we present several lines of evidence that this may be inaccurate. We found that soil DOC concentration explained CH₄ oxidation rates better than soil physical factors that regulate the diffusion of CH₄ from the atmosphere into the soil. We show evidence that MOB facultatively incorporated isotopically labeled glucose into their cells, and MOB utilized glucose in a pattern among our study sites that was similar to wet-season CH₄ oxidation rates. This evidence suggests that DOC, which is utilized by MOB in other environments with varying effects on CH₄ oxidation rates, may be an important regulator of CH₄ oxidation rates in semiarid soils. Our collective understanding of the facultative use of DOC by MOB is still in its infancy, but our results suggest it may be an important factor controlling CH₄ oxidation in soils from dry ecosystems.

The aquatic pathway is increasingly being recognized as an important component of catchment carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets, particularly in peatland systems due to their large carbon store and strong hydrological connectivity. In this study, we present a complete 5-year data set of all aquatic carbon and GHG species from an ombrotrophic Scottish peatland. Measured species include particulate and dissolved forms of organic carbon (POC, DOC), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O. We show that short-term variability in concentrations exists across all species and this is strongly linked to discharge. Seasonal cyclicity was only evident in DOC, CO₂ and CH₄ concentration; however, temperature correlated with monthly means in all species except DIC. Although the temperature correlation with monthly DOC and POC concentrations appeared to be related to biological productivity in the terrestrial system, we suggest the temperature correlation with CO₂ and CH₄ was primarily due to in-stream temperature-dependent solubility. Interannual variability in total aquatic carbon concentration was strongly correlated with catchment gross primary productivity (GPP) indicating a strong potential terrestrial aquatic linkage. DOC represented the largest aquatic carbon flux term (19.3 ± 4.59 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹), followed by CO₂ evasion (10.0 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹). Despite an estimated contribution to the total aquatic carbon flux of between 8 and 48%, evasion estimates had the greatest uncertainty. Interannual variability in total aquatic carbon export was low in comparison with variability in terrestrial biosphere–atmosphere exchange, and could be explained primarily by temperature and precipitation. Our results therefore suggest that climatic change is likely to have a significant impact on annual carbon losses through the aquatic pathway, and as such, aquatic exports are fundamental to the understanding of whole catchment responses to climate change.

In this study we used recent (2010) and herbarium material (1980) of six bryophyte species to assess long-term atmospheric deposition in natural forested areas in northern Spain. For this purpose, tissue nitrogen and carbon content, as well as δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N signatures of samples of Hypnum cupressiforme, Polytrichastrum formosum, Leucobryum juniperoideum, Rhytidiadelphus loreus, Homalothecium lutescens and Diplophyllum albicans were analysed and comparisons made between years and species. In addition, the usefulness of each of the six species was evaluated. The range of values observed was similar to that in other studies carried out in rural areas. Significantly lower values were found in 2010 for N (H. cupressiforme), δ¹⁵N (R. loreus and D. albicans), C (R. loreus) and δ¹³C (all except L. juniperoideum). Our natural areas are thus now less influenced by atmospheric pollutants than they were, most probably due to changes in some traditional local activities. Differences were observed between species for all the four parameters studied, so different species must not be analysed together. Finally, R. loreus and H. lutescens seem to be good bioindicators, sensitive even with a few samples, although further studies are needed to corroborate their usefulness.

Variations in seasonal snowfall regulate regional and global climatic systems and vegetation growth by changing energy budgets of the lower atmosphere and land surface. We investigated the effects of snow on the start of growing season (SGS) of temperate vegetation in China. Across the entire temperate region in China, the winter snow depth increased at a rate of 0.15 cm yr⁻¹ (P = 0.07) during the period 1982–1998, and decreased at a rate of 0.36 cm yr⁻¹ (P = 0.09) during the period 1998–2005. Correspondingly, the SGS advanced at a rate of 0.68 day yr⁻¹ (P < 0.01) during 1982–1998, and delayed at a rate of 2.13 day yr⁻¹ (P = 0.07) during 1998–2005, against a warming trend throughout the entire study period of 1982–2005. Spring air temperature strongly regulated the SGS of both deciduous broad-leaf and coniferous forests, whereas the winter snow had a greater impact on the SGS of grassland and shrubs. Snow depth variation combined with air temperature contributed to the variability in the SGS of grassland and shrubs, as snow acted as an insulator and modulated the underground thermal conditions. In addition, differences were seen between the impacts of winter snow depth and spring snow depth on the SGS; as snow depths increased, the effect associated went from delaying SGS to advancing SGS. The observed thresholds for these effects were snow depths of 6.8 cm (winter) and 4.0 cm (spring). The results of this study suggest that the response of the vegetation's SGS to seasonal snow change may be attributed to the coupling effects of air temperature and snow depth associated with the underground thermal conditions.

Studies have documented changes in animal body sizes over the last century, but very little is known about changes in plant sizes, even though reduced plant productivity is potentially responsible for declines in size of other organisms. Here, I ask whether warming trends in the Great Basin have affected plant size by measuring specimens preserved on herbarium sheets collected between 1893 and 2011. I asked how maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the year of collection affected plant height, leaf size, and flower number, and asked whether changes in climate resulted in decreasing sizes for seven annual forbs. Species had contrasting responses to climate factors, and would not necessarily be expected to respond in parallel to climatic shifts. There were generally positive relationships between plant size and increased minimum and maximum temperatures, which would have been predicted to lead to small increases in plant sizes over the observation period. While one species increased in size and flower number over the observation period, five of the seven species decreased in plant height, four of these decreased in leaf size, and one species also decreased in flower production. One species showed no change. The mechanisms behind these size changes are unknown, and the limited data available on these species (germination timing, area of occupancy, relative abundance) did not explain why some species shrank while others grew or did not change in size over time. These results show that multiple annual forbs are decreasing in size, but that even within the same functional group, species may have contrasting responses to similar environmental stimuli. Changes in plant size could have cascading effects on other members of these communities, and differential responses to directional change may change the composition of plant communities over time.

The high uncertainty in land-based CO₂ fluxes estimates is thought to be mainly due to uncertainty in not only quantifying historical changes among forests, croplands, and grassland, but also due to different processes included in calculation methods. Inclusion of a nitrogen (N) cycle in models is fairly recent and strongly affects carbon (C) fluxes. In this study, for the first time, we use a model with C and N dynamics with three distinct historical reconstructions of land-use and land-use change (LULUC) to quantify LULUC emissions and uncertainty that includes the integrated effects of not only climate and CO₂ but also N. The modeled global average emissions including N dynamics for the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000–2005 were 1.8 ± 0.2, 1.7 ± 0.2, and 1.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr⁻¹, respectively, (mean and range across LULUC data sets). The emissions from tropics were 0.8 ± 0.2, 0.8 ± 0.2, and 0.7 ± 0.3 GtC yr⁻¹, and the non tropics were 1.1 ± 0.5, 0.9 ± 0.2, and 0.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr⁻¹. Compared to previous studies that did not include N dynamics, modeled net LULUC emissions were higher, particularly in the non tropics. In the model, N limitation reduces regrowth rates of vegetation in temperate areas resulting in higher net emissions. Our results indicate that exclusion of N dynamics leads to an underestimation of LULUC emissions by around 70% in the non tropics, 10% in the tropics, and 40% globally in the 1990s. The differences due to inclusion/exclusion of the N cycle of 0.1 GtC yr⁻¹ in the tropics, 0.6 GtC yr⁻¹ in the non tropics, and 0.7 GtC yr⁻¹ globally (mean across land-cover data sets) in the 1990s were greater than differences due to the land-cover data in the non tropics and globally (0.2 GtC yr⁻¹). While land-cover information is improving with satellite and inventory data, this study indicates the importance of accounting for different processes, in particular the N cycle.

Climate change is predicted to cause changes in species distributions and several studies report margin range shifts in some species. However, the reported changes rarely concern a species' entire distribution and are not always linked to climate change. Here, we demonstrate strong north-eastwards shifts in the centres of gravity of the entire wintering range of three common waterbird species along the North-West Europe flyway during the past three decades. These shifts correlate with an increase of 3.8 °C in early winter temperature in the north-eastern part of the wintering areas, where bird abundance increased exponentially, corresponding with decreases in abundance at the south-western margin of the wintering ranges. This confirms the need to re-evaluate conservation site safeguard networks and associated biodiversity monitoring along the flyway, as new important wintering areas are established further north and east, and highlights the general urgency of conservation planning in a changing world. Range shifts in wintering waterbirds may also affect hunting pressure, which may alter bag sizes and lead to population-level consequences.

Refugia have been suggested as priority sites for conservation under climate change because of their ability to facilitate survival of biota under adverse conditions. Here, we review the likely role of refugial habitats in conserving freshwater biota in arid Australian aquatic systems where the major long-term climatic influence has been aridification. We introduce a conceptual model that characterizes evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges based on our review of the attributes of aquatic habitats and freshwater taxa (fishes and aquatic invertebrates) in arid Australia. We also identify methods of recognizing likely future refugia and approaches to assessing the vulnerability of arid-adapted freshwater biota to a warming and drying climate. Evolutionary refugia in arid areas are characterized as permanent, groundwater-dependent habitats (subterranean aquifers and springs) supporting vicariant relicts and short-range endemics. Ecological refuges can vary across space and time, depending on the dispersal abilities of aquatic taxa and the geographical proximity and hydrological connectivity of aquatic habitats. The most important are the perennial waterbodies (both groundwater and surface water fed) that support obligate aquatic organisms. These species will persist where suitable habitats are available and dispersal pathways are maintained. For very mobile species (invertebrates with an aerial dispersal phase) evolutionary refugia may also act as ecological refuges. Evolutionary refugia are likely future refugia because their water source (groundwater) is decoupled from local precipitation. However, their biota is extremely vulnerable to changes in local conditions because population extinction risks cannot be abated by the dispersal of individuals from other sites. Conservation planning must incorporate a high level of protection for aquifers that support refugial sites. Ecological refuges are vulnerable to changes in regional climate because they have little thermal or hydrological buffering. Accordingly, conservation planning must focus on maintaining meta-population processes, especially through dynamic connectivity between aquatic habitats at a landscape scale.

Despite the perceived importance of exudation to forest ecosystem function, few studies have attempted to examine the effects of elevated temperature and nutrition availability on the rates of root exudation and associated microbial processes. In this study, we performed an experiment in which in situ exudates were collected from Picea asperata seedlings that were transplanted in disturbed soils exposed to two levels of temperature (ambient temperature and infrared heater warming) and two nitrogen levels (unfertilized and 25 g N m⁻² a⁻¹). Here, we show that the trees exposed to an elevated temperature increased their exudation rates I (μg C g⁻¹ root biomass h⁻¹), II (μg C cm⁻¹ root length h⁻¹) and III (μg C cm⁻² root area h⁻¹) in the unfertilized plots. The altered morphological and physiological traits of the roots exposed to experimental warming could be responsible for this variation in root exudation. Moreover, these increases in root-derived C were positively correlated with the microbial release of extracellular enzymes involved in the breakdown of organic N (R² = 0.790; P = 0.038), which was coupled with stimulated microbial activity and accelerated N transformations in the unfertilized soils. In contrast, the trees exposed to both experimental warming and N fertilization did not show increased exudation rates or soil enzyme activity, indicating that the stimulatory effects of experimental warming on root exudation depend on soil fertility. Collectively, our results provide preliminary evidence that an increase in the release of root exudates into the soil may be an important physiological adjustment by which the sustained growth responses of plants to experimental warming may be maintained via enhanced soil microbial activity and soil N transformation. Accordingly, the underlying mechanisms by which plant root-microbe interactions influence soil organic matter decomposition and N cycling should be incorporated into climate-carbon cycle models to determine reliable estimates of long-term C storage in forests.

Findings on climate change influence on plant pathogens are often inconsistent and context dependent. Knowledge of pathogens affecting agricultural crops and natural plant communities remains fragmented along disciplinary lines. By broadening the perspective beyond agriculture, this review integrates cross-disciplinary knowledge to show that at scales relevant to climate change, accelerated evolution and changing geographic distribution will be the main implications for pathogens. New races may evolve rapidly under elevated temperature and CO₂, as evolutionary forces act on massive pathogen populations boosted by a combination of increased fecundity and infection cycles under favourable microclimate within enlarged canopy. Changing geographic distribution will bring together diverse lineages/genotypes that do not share common ecological niche, potentially increasing pathogen diversity. However, the uncertainty of model predictions and a lack of synthesis of fragmented knowledge remain as major deficiencies in knowledge. The review contends that the failure to consider scale and human intervention through new technology are major sources of uncertainty. Recognizing that improved biophysical models alone will not reduce uncertainty, it proposes a generic framework to increase focus and outlines ways to integrate biophysical elements and technology change with human intervention scenarios to minimize uncertainty. To synthesize knowledge of pathogen biology and life history, the review borrows the concept of ‘fitness’ from population biology as a comprehensive measure of pathogen strengths and vulnerabilities, and explores the implications of pathogen mode of nutrition to fitness and its interactions with plants suffering chronic abiotic stress under climate change. Current and future disease management options can then be judged for their ability to impair pathogenic and saprophytic fitness. The review pinpoints improving confidence in model prediction by minimizing uncertainty, developing management strategies to reduce overall pathogen fitness, and finding new sources of data to trawl for climate signatures on pathogens as important challenges for future research.

Peatlands store approximately 30% of global soil carbon, most in moss-dominated bogs. Future climatic changes, such as changes in precipitation patterns and warming, are expected to affect peat bog vegetation composition and thereby its long-term carbon sequestration capacity. Theoretical work suggests that an episode of rapid environmental change is more likely to trigger transitions to alternative ecosystem states than a gradual, but equally large, change in conditions. We used a dynamic vegetation model to explore the impacts of drought events and increased temperature on vegetation composition of temperate peat bogs. We analyzed the consequences of six patterns of summer drought events combined with five temperature scenarios to test whether an open peat bog dominated by moss (Sphagnum) could shift to a tree-dominated state. Unexpectedly, neither a gradual decrease in the amount of summer precipitation nor the occurrence of a number of extremely dry summers in a row could shift the moss-dominated peat bog permanently into a tree-dominated peat bog. The increase in tree biomass during drought events was unable to trigger positive feedbacks that keep the ecosystem in a tree-dominated state after a return to previous ‘normal’ rainfall conditions. In contrast, temperature increases from 1 °C onward already shifted peat bogs into tree-dominated ecosystems. In our simulations, drought events facilitated tree establishment, but temperature determined how much tree biomass could develop. Our results suggest that under current climatic conditions, peat bog vegetation is rather resilient to drought events, but very sensitive to temperature increases, indicating that future warming is likely to trigger persistent vegetation shifts.

Future oceans are predicted to contain less oxygen than at present. This is because oxygen is less soluble in warmer water and predicted stratification will reduce mixing. Hypoxia in marine environments is thus likely to become more widespread in marine environments and understanding species-responses is important to predicting future impacts on biodiversity. This study used a tractable model, the Antarctic clam, Laternula elliptica, which can live for 36 years, and has a well-characterized ecology and physiology to understand responses to hypoxia and how the effect varied with age. Younger animals had a higher condition index, higher adenylate energy charge and transcriptional profiling indicated that they were physically active in their response to hypoxia, whereas older animals were more sedentary, with higher levels of oxidative damage and apoptosis in the gills. These effects could be attributed, in part, to age-related tissue scaling; older animals had proportionally less contractile muscle mass and smaller gills and foot compared with younger animals, with consequential effects on the whole-animal physiological response. The data here emphasize the importance of including age effects, as large mature individuals appear to be less able to resist hypoxic conditions and this is the size range that is the major contributor to future generations. Thus, the increased prevalence of hypoxia in future oceans may have marked effects on benthic organisms' abilities to persist and this is especially so for long-lived species when predicting responses to environmental perturbation.

Local adaptation and plasticity pose significant obstacles to predicting plant responses to future climates. Although local adaptation and plasticity in plant functional traits have been documented for many species, less is known about population-level variation in plasticity and whether such variation is driven by adaptation to environmental variation. We examined clinal variation in traits and performance – and plastic responses to environmental change – for the shrub Artemisia californica along a 700 km gradient characterized (from south to north) by a fourfold increase in precipitation and a 61% decrease in interannual precipitation variation. Plants cloned from five populations along this gradient were grown for 3 years in treatments approximating the precipitation regimes of the north and south range margins. Most traits varying among populations did so clinally; northern populations (vs. southern) had higher water-use efficiencies and lower growth rates, C : N ratios and terpene concentrations. Notably, there was variation in plasticity for plant performance that was strongly correlated with source site interannual precipitation variability. The high-precipitation treatment (vs. low) increased growth and flower production more for plants from southern populations (181% and 279%, respectively) than northern populations (47% and 20%, respectively). Overall, precipitation variability at population source sites predicted 86% and 99% of variation in plasticity in growth and flowering, respectively. These striking, clinal patterns in plant traits and plasticity are indicative of adaptation to both the mean and variability of environmental conditions. Furthermore, our analysis of long-term coastal climate data in turn indicates an increase in interannual precipitation variation consistent with most global change models and, unexpectedly, this increased variation is especially pronounced at historically stable, northern sites. Our findings demonstrate the critical need to integrate fundamental evolutionary processes into global change models, as contemporary patterns of adaptation to environmental clines will mediate future plant responses to projected climate change.

This review focuses on the impacts of climate change on population dynamics. I introduce the MUP (Measuring, Understanding, and Predicting) approach, which provides a general framework where an enhanced understanding of climate-population processes, along with improved long-term data, are merged into coherent projections of future population responses to climate change. This approach can be applied to any species, but this review illustrates its benefit using birds as examples.

Birds are one of the best-studied groups and a large number of studies have detected climate impacts on vital rates (i.e., life history traits, such as survival, maturation, or breeding, affecting changes in population size and composition) and population abundance. These studies reveal multifaceted effects of climate with direct, indirect, time-lagged, and nonlinear effects. However, few studies integrate these effects into a climate-dependent population model to understand the respective role of climate variables and their components (mean state, variability, extreme) on population dynamics. To quantify how populations cope with climate change impacts, I introduce a new universal variable: the ‘population robustness to climate change.’ The comparison of such robustness, along with prospective and retrospective analysis may help to identify the major climate threats and characteristics of threatened avian species.

Finally, studies projecting avian population responses to future climate change predicted by IPCC-class climate models are rare. Population projections hinge on selecting a multiclimate model ensemble at the appropriate temporal and spatial scales and integrating both radiative forcing and internal variability in climate with fully specified uncertainties in both demographic and climate processes.

Climate-related declines in lake area have been identified across circumpolar regions and have been characterized by substantial spatial heterogeneity. An improved understanding of the mechanisms underlying lake area trends is necessary to predict where change is most likely to occur and to identify implications for high latitude reservoirs of carbon. Here, using a population of ca. 2300 lakes with statistically significant increasing and decreasing lake area trends spanning longitudinal and latitudinal gradients of ca. 1000 km in Alaska, we present evidence for a mechanism of lake area decline that involves the loss of surface water to groundwater systems. We show that lakes with significant declines in lake area were more likely to be located: (1) in burned areas; (2) on coarser, well-drained soils; and (3) farther from rivers compared to lakes that were increasing. These results indicate that postfire processes such as permafrost degradation, which also results from a warming climate, may promote lake drainage, particularly in coarse-textured soils and farther from rivers where overland flooding is less likely and downslope flow paths and negative hydraulic gradients between surface water and groundwater systems are more common. Movement of surface water to groundwater systems may lead to a deepening of subsurface flow paths and longer hydraulic residence time which has been linked to increased soil respiration and CO₂ release to the atmosphere. By quantifying relationships between statewide coarse resolution maps of landscape characteristics and spatially heterogeneous responses of lakes to environmental change, we provide a means to identify at-risk lakes and landscapes and plan for a changing climate.

Forest regeneration following disturbance is a key ecological process, influencing forest structure and function, species assemblages, and ecosystem–climate interactions. Climate change may alter forest recovery dynamics or even prevent recovery, triggering feedbacks to the climate system, altering regional biodiversity, and affecting the ecosystem services provided by forests. Multiple lines of evidence – including global-scale patterns in forest recovery dynamics; forest responses to experimental manipulation of CO₂, temperature, and precipitation; forest responses to the climate change that has already occurred; ecological theory; and ecosystem and earth system models – all indicate that the dynamics of forest recovery are sensitive to climate. However, synthetic understanding of how atmospheric CO₂ and climate shape trajectories of forest recovery is lacking. Here, we review these separate lines of evidence, which together demonstrate that the dynamics of forest recovery are being impacted by increasing atmospheric CO₂ and changing climate. Rates of forest recovery generally increase with CO₂, temperature, and water availability. Drought reduces growth and live biomass in forests of all ages, having a particularly strong effect on seedling recruitment and survival. Responses of individual trees and whole-forest ecosystems to CO₂ and climate manipulations often vary by age, implying that forests of different ages will respond differently to climate change. Furthermore, species within a community typically exhibit differential responses to CO₂ and climate, and altered community dynamics can have important consequences for ecosystem function. Age- and species-dependent responses provide a mechanism by which climate change may push some forests past critical thresholds such that they fail to recover to their previous state following disturbance. Altered dynamics of forest recovery will result in positive and negative feedbacks to climate change. Future research on this topic and corresponding improvements to earth system models will be a key to understanding the future of forests and their feedbacks to the climate system.

Modeling stomatal behavior is critical in research on land–atmosphere interactions and climate change. The most common model uses an existing relationship between photosynthesis and stomatal conductance. However, its parameters have been determined using infrequent and leaf-scale gas-exchange measurements and may not be representative of the whole canopy in time and space. In this study, we used a top-down approach based on a double-source canopy model and eddy flux measurements throughout the growing season. Using this approach, we quantified the canopy-scale relationship between gross photosynthesis and stomatal conductance for 3 years and their relationships with leaf nitrogen content throughout each growing season above a paddy rice canopy in Japan. The canopy-averaged stomatal conductance (g_sc) increased with increasing gross photosynthesis per unit green leaf area (A_g), as was the case with leaf-scale measurements, and 41–90% of its variation was explained by variations in A_g adjusted to account for the leaf-to-air vapor-pressure deficit and CO₂ concentration using the Leuning model. The slope (m) in this model (g_sc versus the adjusted A_g) was almost constant within a 15-day period, but changed seasonally. The m values determined using an ensemble dataset for two mid-growing-season 15-day periods were 30.8 (SE = 0.5), 29.9 (SE = 0.7), and 29.9 (SE = 0.6) in 2004, 2005, and 2006, respectively; the overall mid-season value was 30.3 and did not greatly differ among the 3 years. However, m appeared to be higher during the early and late growing seasons. The ontogenic changes in leaf nitrogen content strongly affected A_g and thus g_sc. In addition, we have discussed the agronomic impacts of the interactions between leaf nitrogen content and g_sc. Despite limitations in the observations and modeling, our canopy-scale results emphasize the importance of continuous, season-long estimates of stomatal model parameters for crops using top-down approaches.

Stenothermal polar benthic marine invertebrates are highly sensitive to environmental perturbations but little is known about potential synergistic effects of concurrent ocean warming and acidification on development of their embryos and larvae. We examined the effects of these stressors on development to the calcifying larval stage in the Antarctic sea urchin Sterechinus neumayeri in embryos reared in present and future (2100+) ocean conditions from fertilization. Embryos were reared in 2 temperature (ambient: −1.0 °C, + 2 °C : 1.0 °C) and 3 pH (ambient: pH 8.0, −0.2–0.4 pH units: 7.8,7.6) levels. Principle coordinates analysis on five larval metrics showed a significant effect of temperature and pH on the pattern of growth. Within each temperature, larvae were separated by pH treatment, a pattern primarily influenced by larval arm and body length. Growth was accelerated by temperature with a 20–28% increase in postoral (PO) length at +2 °C across all pH levels. Growth was strongly depressed by reduced pH with a 8–19% decrease in PO length at pH 7.6–7.8 at both temperatures. The boost in growth caused by warming resulted in larvae that were larger than would be observed if acidification was examined in the absence of warming. However, there was no significant interaction between these stressors. The increase in left-right asymmetry and altered body allometry indicated that decreased pH disrupted developmental patterning and acted as a teratogen (agent causing developmental malformation). Decreased developmental success with just a 2 °C warming indicates that development in S. neumayeri is particularly sensitive to increased temperature. Increased temperature also altered larval allometry. Altered body shape impairs swimming and feeding in echinoplutei. In the absence of adaptation, it appears that the larval phase may be a bottleneck for survivorship of S. neumayeri in a changing ocean in a location where poleward migration to escape inhospitable conditions is not possible.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate 10 process-based terrestrial biosphere models that were used for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report. The simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) is compared with flux-tower-based estimates by Jung et al. [Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011) G00J07] (JU11). The net primary productivity (NPP) apparent sensitivity to climate variability and atmospheric CO₂ trends is diagnosed from each model output, using statistical functions. The temperature sensitivity is compared against ecosystem field warming experiments results. The CO₂ sensitivity of NPP is compared to the results from four Free-Air CO₂ Enrichment (FACE) experiments. The simulated global net biome productivity (NBP) is compared with the residual land sink (RLS) of the global carbon budget from Friedlingstein et al. [Nature Geoscience 3 (2010) 811] (FR10). We found that models produce a higher GPP (133 ± 15 Pg C yr⁻¹) than JU11 (118 ± 6 Pg C yr⁻¹). In response to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration, modeled NPP increases on average by 16% (5–20%) per 100 ppm, a slightly larger apparent sensitivity of NPP to CO₂ than that measured at the FACE experiment locations (13% per 100 ppm). Global NBP differs markedly among individual models, although the mean value of 2.0 ± 0.8 Pg C yr⁻¹ is remarkably close to the mean value of RLS (2.1 ± 1.2 Pg C yr⁻¹). The interannual variability in modeled NBP is significantly correlated with that of RLS for the period 1980–2009. Both model-to-model and interannual variation in model GPP is larger than that in model NBP due to the strong coupling causing a positive correlation between ecosystem respiration and GPP in the model. The average linear regression slope of global NBP vs. temperature across the 10 models is −3.0 ± 1.5 Pg C yr⁻¹ °C⁻¹, within the uncertainty of what derived from RLS (−3.9 ± 1.1 Pg C yr⁻¹ °C⁻¹). However, 9 of 10 models overestimate the regression slope of NBP vs. precipitation, compared with the slope of the observed RLS vs. precipitation. With most models lacking processes that control GPP and NBP in addition to CO₂ and climate, the agreement between modeled and observation-based GPP and NBP can be fortuitous. Carbon–nitrogen interactions (only separable in one model) significantly influence the simulated response of carbon cycle to temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, suggesting that nutrients limitations should be included in the next generation of terrestrial biosphere models.

Elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations ([CO₂]) generally increase primary production of terrestrial ecosystems. Production responses to elevated [CO₂] may be particularly large in deserts, but information on their long-term response is unknown. We evaluated the cumulative effects of elevated [CO₂] on primary production at the Nevada Desert FACE (free-air carbon dioxide enrichment) Facility. Aboveground and belowground perennial plant biomass was harvested in an intact Mojave Desert ecosystem at the end of a 10-year elevated [CO₂] experiment. We measured community standing biomass, biomass allocation, canopy cover, leaf area index (LAI), carbon and nitrogen content, and isotopic composition of plant tissues for five to eight dominant species. We provide the first long-term results of elevated [CO₂] on biomass components of a desert ecosystem and offer information on understudied Mojave Desert species. In contrast to initial expectations, 10 years of elevated [CO₂] had no significant effect on standing biomass, biomass allocation, canopy cover, and C : N ratios of above- and belowground components. However, elevated [CO₂] increased short-term responses, including leaf water-use efficiency (WUE) as measured by carbon isotope discrimination and increased plot-level LAI. Standing biomass, biomass allocation, canopy cover, and C : N ratios of above- and belowground pools significantly differed among dominant species, but responses to elevated [CO₂] did not vary among species, photosynthetic pathway (C₃ vs. C₄), or growth form (drought-deciduous shrub vs. evergreen shrub vs. grass). Thus, even though previous and current results occasionally show increased leaf-level photosynthetic rates, WUE, LAI, and plant growth under elevated [CO₂] during the 10-year experiment, most responses were in wet years and did not lead to sustained increases in community biomass. We presume that the lack of sustained biomass responses to elevated [CO₂] is explained by inter-annual differences in water availability. Therefore, the high frequency of low precipitation years may constrain cumulative biomass responses to elevated [CO₂] in desert environments.

We review the evidence of how organisms and populations are currently responding to climate change through phenotypic plasticity, genotypic evolution, changes in distribution and, in some cases, local extinction. Organisms alter their gene expression and metabolism to increase the concentrations of several antistress compounds and to change their physiology, phenology, growth and reproduction in response to climate change. Rapid adaptation and microevolution occur at the population level. Together with these phenotypic and genotypic adaptations, the movement of organisms and the turnover of populations can lead to migration toward habitats with better conditions unless hindered by barriers. Both migration and local extinction of populations have occurred. However, many unknowns for all these processes remain. The roles of phenotypic plasticity and genotypic evolution and their possible trade-offs and links with population structure warrant further research. The application of omic techniques to ecological studies will greatly favor this research. It remains poorly understood how climate change will result in asymmetrical responses of species and how it will interact with other increasing global impacts, such as N eutrophication, changes in environmental N : P ratios and species invasion, among many others. The biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks on climate of all these changes in vegetation are also poorly understood. We here review the evidence of responses to climate change and discuss the perspectives for increasing our knowledge of the interactions between climate change and life.

Biogeochemical models have been developed to account for more and more processes, making their complex structures difficult to be understood and evaluated. Here, we introduce a framework to decompose a complex land model into traceable components based on mutually independent properties of modeled biogeochemical processes. The framework traces modeled ecosystem carbon storage capacity (X_ss) to (i) a product of net primary productivity (NPP) and ecosystem residence time (τ_E). The latter τ_E can be further traced to (ii) baseline carbon residence times (τ′_E), which are usually preset in a model according to vegetation characteristics and soil types, (iii) environmental scalars (ξ), including temperature and water scalars, and (iv) environmental forcings. We applied the framework to the Australian Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) model to help understand differences in modeled carbon processes among biomes and as influenced by nitrogen processes. With the climate forcings of 1990, modeled evergreen broadleaf forest had the highest NPP among the nine biomes and moderate residence times, leading to a relatively high carbon storage capacity (31.5 kg cm⁻²). Deciduous needle leaf forest had the longest residence time (163.3 years) and low NPP, leading to moderate carbon storage (18.3 kg cm⁻²). The longest τ_E in deciduous needle leaf forest was ascribed to its longest τ′_E (43.6 years) and small ξ (0.14 on litter/soil carbon decay rates). Incorporation of nitrogen processes into the CABLE model decreased X_ss in all biomes via reduced NPP (e.g., −12.1% in shrub land) or decreased τ_E or both. The decreases in τ_E resulted from nitrogen-induced changes in τ′_E (e.g., −26.7% in C₃ grassland) through carbon allocation among plant pools and transfers from plant to litter and soil pools. Our framework can be used to facilitate data model comparisons and model intercomparisons via tracking a few traceable components for all terrestrial carbon cycle models. Nevertheless, more research is needed to develop tools to decompose NPP and transient dynamics of the modeled carbon cycle into traceable components for structural analysis of land models.

Ecosystems in the far north, including arctic and boreal biomes, are a globally significant pool of carbon (C). Global change is proposed to influence both C uptake and release in these ecosystems, thereby potentially affecting whether they act as C sources or sinks. Bryophytes (i.e., mosses) serve a variety of key functions in these systems, including their association with nitrogen (N₂)-fixing cyanobacteria, as thermal insulators of the soil, and producers of recalcitrant litter, which have implications for both net primary productivity (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration. While ground-cover bryophytes typically make up a small proportion of the total biomass in northern systems, their combined physical structure and N₂-fixing capabilities facilitate a disproportionally large impact on key processes that control ecosystem C and N cycles. As such, the response of bryophyte-cyanobacteria associations to global change may influence whether and how ecosystem C balances are influenced by global change. Here, we review what is known about their occurrence and N₂-fixing activity, and how bryophyte systems will respond to several key global change factors. We explore the implications these responses may have in determining how global change influences C balances in high northern latitudes.

Deforestation of mangroves is of global concern given their importance for carbon storage, biogeochemical cycling and the provision of other ecosystem services, but the links between rates of loss and potential drivers or risk factors are rarely evaluated. Here, we identified key drivers of mangrove loss in Kenya and compared two different approaches to predicting risk. Risk factors tested included various possible predictors of anthropogenic deforestation, related to population, suitability for land use change and accessibility. Two approaches were taken to modelling risk; a quantitative statistical approach and a qualitative categorical ranking approach. A quantitative model linking rates of loss to risk factors was constructed based on generalized least squares regression and using mangrove loss data from 1992 to 2000. Population density, soil type and proximity to roads were the most important predictors. In order to validate this model it was used to generate a map of losses of Kenyan mangroves predicted to have occurred between 2000 and 2010. The qualitative categorical model was constructed using data from the same selection of variables, with the coincidence of different risk factors in particular mangrove areas used in an additive manner to create a relative risk index which was then mapped. Quantitative predictions of loss were significantly correlated with the actual loss of mangroves between 2000 and 2010 and the categorical risk index values were also highly correlated with the quantitative predictions. Hence, in this case the relatively simple categorical modelling approach was of similar predictive value to the more complex quantitative model of mangrove deforestation. The advantages and disadvantages of each approach are discussed, and the implications for mangroves are outlined.

Rapid climate change may prompt species distribution shifts upward and poleward, but species movement in itself is not sufficient to establish climate causation. Other dynamics, such as disturbance history, may prompt species distribution shifts resembling those expected from rapid climate change. Links between species distributions, regional climate trends and physiological mechanism are needed to convincingly establish climate-induced species shifts. We examine a 38-year shift (1974–2012) in an elevation ecotone between two closely related ant species, Aphaenogaster picea and A. rudis. Even though A. picea and A. rudis are closely related with North American distributions that sometimes overlap, they also exhibit local- and regional-scale differences in temperature requirements so that A. rudis is more southerly and inhabits lower elevations whereas A. picea is more northerly and inhabits high elevations. We find considerable movement by the warm-habitat species upward in elevation between 1974 and 2012 with A. rudis, replacing the cold-habitat species, A. picea, along the southern edge of the Appalachian Mountain chain in north Georgia, USA. Concomitant with the distribution shifts, regional mean and maximum temperatures remain steady (1974–2012), but minimum temperatures increase. We collect individuals from the study sites and subject them to thermal tolerance testing in a controlled setting and find that maximum and minimum temperature acclimatization occurs along the elevation gradient in both species, but A. rudis consistently becomes physiologically incapacitated at minimum and maximum temperatures 2 °C higher than A. picea. These results indicate that rising minimum temperatures allow A. rudis to move upward in elevation and displace A. picea. Given that Aphaenogaster ants are the dominant woodland seed dispersers in eastern deciduous forests, and that their thermal tolerances drive distinct differences in temperature-cued synchrony with early blooming plants, these climate responses not only impact ant-ant interactions, but might have wide implications for ant-plant interactions.

Sea-level rise (SLR) from global warming may have severe consequences for biodiversity; however, a baseline, broad-scale assessment of the potential consequences of SLR for island biodiversity is lacking. Here, we quantify area loss for over 12 900 islands and over 3000 terrestrial vertebrates in the Pacific and Southeast Asia under three different SLR scenarios (1 m, 3 m and 6 m). We used very fine-grained elevation information, which offered >100 times greater spatial detail than previous analyses and allowed us to evaluate thousands of hitherto not assessed small islands. Depending on the SLR scenario, we estimate that 15–62% of islands in our study region will be completely inundated and 19–24% will lose 50–99% of their area. Overall, we project that between 1% and 9% of the total island area in our study region may be lost. We find that Pacific species are 2–3 times more vulnerable than those in the Indomalayan or Australasian region and risk losing 4–22% of range area (1–6 m SLR). Species already listed as threatened by IUCN are particularly vulnerable compared with non-threatened species. Under a simple area loss–species loss proportionality assumption, we estimate that 37 island group endemic species in this region risk complete inundation of their current global distribution in the 1 m SLR scenario that is widely anticipated for this century (and 118 species under 3 m SLR). Our analysis provides a first, broad-scale estimate of the potential consequences of SLR for island biodiversity and our findings confirm that islands are extremely vulnerable to sea-level rise even within this century.

Evolutionary responses are required for tree populations to be able to track climate change. Results of 250 years of common garden experiments show that most forest trees have evolved local adaptation, as evidenced by the adaptive differentiation of populations in quantitative traits, reflecting environmental conditions of population origins. On the basis of the patterns of quantitative variation for 19 adaptation-related traits studied in 59 tree species (mostly temperate and boreal species from the Northern hemisphere), we found that genetic differentiation between populations and clinal variation along environmental gradients were very common (respectively, 90% and 78% of cases). Thus, responding to climate change will likely require that the quantitative traits of populations again match their environments. We examine what kind of information is needed for evaluating the potential to respond, and what information is already available. We review the genetic models related to selection responses, and what is known currently about the genetic basis of the traits. We address special problems to be found at the range margins, and highlight the need for more modeling to understand specific issues at southern and northern margins. We need new common garden experiments for less known species. For extensively studied species, new experiments are needed outside the current ranges. Improving genomic information will allow better prediction of responses. Competitive and other interactions within species and interactions between species deserve more consideration. Despite the long generation times, the strong background in quantitative genetics and growing genomic resources make forest trees useful species for climate change research. The greatest adaptive response is expected when populations are large, have high genetic variability, selection is strong, and there is ecological opportunity for establishment of better adapted genotypes.

Changes in variance are infrequently examined in climate change ecology. We tested the hypothesis that recent high variability in demographic attributes of salmon and seabirds off California is related to increasing variability in remote, large-scale forcing in the North Pacific operating through changes in local food webs. Linear, indirect numerical responses between krill (primarily Thysanoessa spinifera) and juvenile rockfish abundance (catch per unit effort (CPUE)) explained >80% of the recent variability in the demography of these pelagic predators. We found no relationships between krill and regional upwelling, though a strong connection to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index was established. Variance in NPGO and related central Pacific warming index increased after 1985, whereas variance in the canonical ENSO and Pacific Decadal Oscillation did not change. Anthropogenic global warming or natural climate variability may explain recent intensification of the NPGO and its increasing ecological significance. Assessing non-stationarity in atmospheric-environmental interactions and placing greater emphasis on documenting changes in variance of bio-physical systems will enable insight into complex climate-marine ecosystem dynamics.

Global soil carbon (C) stocks account for approximately three times that found in the atmosphere. In the Aso mountain region of Southern Japan, seminatural grasslands have been maintained by annual harvests and/or burning for more than 1000 years. Quantification of soil C stocks and C sequestration rates in Aso mountain ecosystem is needed to make well-informed, land-use decisions to maximize C sinks while minimizing C emissions. Soil cores were collected from six sites within 200 km² (767–937 m asl.) from the surface down to the k-Ah layer established 7300 years ago by a volcanic eruption. The biological sources of the C stored in the Aso mountain ecosystem were investigated by combining C content at a number of sampling depths with age (using ¹⁴C dating) and δ¹³C isotopic fractionation. Quantification of plant phytoliths at several depths was used to make basic reconstructions of past vegetation and was linked with C-sequestration rates. The mean total C stock of all six sites was 232 Mg C ha⁻¹ (28–417 Mg C ha⁻¹), which equates to a soil C sequestration rate of 32 kg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ over 7300 years. Mean soil C sequestration rates over 34, 50 and 100 years were estimated by an equation regressing soil C sequestration rate against soil C accumulation interval, which was modeled to be 618, 483 and 332 kg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, respectively. Such data allows for a deeper understanding in how much C could be sequestered in Miscanthus grasslands at different time scales. In Aso, tribe Andropogoneae (especially Miscanthus and Schizoachyrium genera) and tribe Paniceae contributed between 64% and 100% of soil C based on δ¹³C abundance. We conclude that the seminatural, C₄-dominated grassland system serves as an important C sink, and worthy of future conservation.

Ectomycorrhizal fungi commonly associate with the roots of forest trees where they enhance nutrient and water uptake, promote seedling establishment and have an important role in forest nutrient cycling. Predicting the response of ectomycorrhizal fungi to environmental change is an important step to maintaining forest productivity in the future. These predictions are currently limited by an incomplete understanding of the relative significance of environmental drivers in determining the community composition of ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi at large spatial scales. To identify patterns of community composition in ECM fungi along regional scale gradients of climate and nitrogen deposition in Scotland, fungal communities were analysed from 15 seminatural Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests. Fungal taxa were identified by sequencing of the ITS rDNA region using fungal-specific primers. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling was used to assess the significance of 16 climatic, pollutant and edaphic variables on community composition. Vector fitting showed that there was a strong influence of rainfall and soil moisture on community composition at the species level, and a smaller impact of temperature on the abundance of ectomycorrhizal exploration types. Nitrogen deposition was also found to be important in determining community composition, but only when the forest experiencing the highest deposition (9.8 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) was included in the analysis. This finding supports previously published critical load estimates for ectomycorrhizal fungi of 5–10 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. This work demonstrates that both climate and nitrogen deposition can drive gradients of fungal community composition at a regional scale.

Fine root dynamics control a dominant flux of carbon from plants and into soils and mediate potential uptake and cycling of nutrients and water in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding of these patterns is needed to accurately describe critical processes like productivity and carbon storage from ecosystem to global scales. However, limited observations of root dynamics make it difficult to define and predict patterns of root dynamics across broad spatial scales. Here, we combine species-specific estimates of fine root dynamics with a model that predicts current distribution and future suitable habitat of temperate tree species across the eastern United States (US). Estimates of fine root lifespan and turnover are based on empirical observations and relationships with fine root and whole-plant traits and apply explicitly to the fine root pool that is relatively short-lived and most active in nutrient and water uptake. Results from the combined model identified patterns of faster root turnover rates in the North Central US and slower turnover rates in the Southeastern US. Portions of Minnesota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania were also predicted to experience >10% increases in root turnover rates given potential shifts in tree species composition under future climate scenarios while root turnover rates in other portions of the eastern US were predicted to decrease. Despite potential regional changes, the average estimates of root lifespan and turnover for the entire study area remained relatively stable between the current and future climate scenarios. Our combined model provides the first empirically based, spatially explicit, and spatially extensive estimates of fine root lifespan and turnover and is a potentially powerful tool allowing researchers to identify reasonable approximations of forest fine root turnover in areas where no direct observations are available. Future efforts should focus on reducing uncertainty in estimates of root dynamics by better understanding how climate and soil factors drive variability in root dynamics of different species.

Accurate modelling of long-term changes in plant stomatal functioning is vital to global climate change studies because changes in evapotranspiration influence temperature via physiological forcing of the climate. Various stomatal models are included in land surface schemes, but their robustness over longer timescales is difficult to validate. We compare the performance of three stomatal models, varying in their degree of complexity, and coupled to a land surface model. This is carried out by simulating the carbon isotope ratio of tree leaves (δ¹³C_leaf) over a period of 53 years, and comparing the results with carbon isotope ratios obtained from tree rings (δ¹³C_stem) measured at six sites in northern Europe. All three stomatal models fail to capture the observed interannual variability in the measured δ¹³C_stem time series. However, the Soil-Plant-Atmosphere (SPA) model performs significantly better than the Ball-Berry (BB) or COX models when tested for goodness-of-fit against measured δ¹³C_stem. The δ¹³C_leaf time series simulated using the SPA model are significantly positively correlated (P < 0.05) with measured results over the full time period tested, at all six sites. The SPA model underestimates interannual variability measured in δ¹³C_stem, but is no worse than the BB model and significantly better than the COX model. The inability of current models to adequately replicate changes in stomatal response to rising levels of CO₂ concentrations, and thus to quantify the associated physiological forcing, warrants further investigation.

Migration of plant populations is a potential survival response to climate change that depends critically on seed dispersal. Biological and physical factors determine dispersal and migration of wind-dispersed species. Recent field and wind tunnel studies demonstrate biological adaptations that bias seed release toward conditions of higher wind velocity, promoting longer dispersal distances and faster migration. However, another suite of international studies also recently highlighted a global decrease in near-surface wind speeds, or ‘global stilling’. This study assessed the implications of both factors on potential plant population migration rates, using a mechanistic modeling framework. Nonrandom abscission was investigated using models of three seed release mechanisms: (i) a simple drag model; (ii) a seed deflection model; and (iii) a ‘wear and tear’ model. The models generated a single functional relationship between the frequency of seed release and statistics of the near-surface wind environment, independent of the abscission mechanism. An Inertial-Particle, Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian Closure model (IP-CELC) was used to investigate abscission effects on seed dispersal kernels and plant population migration rates under contemporary and potential future wind conditions (based on reported global stilling trends). The results confirm that nonrandom seed abscission increased dispersal distances, particularly for light seeds. The increases were mitigated by two physical feedbacks: (i) although nonrandom abscission increased the initial acceleration of seeds from rest, the sensitivity of the seed dispersal to this initial condition declined as the wind speed increased; and (ii) while nonrandom abscission increased the mean dispersal length, it reduced the kurtosis of seasonal dispersal kernels, and thus the chance of long-distance dispersal. Wind stilling greatly reduced the modeled migration rates under biased seed release conditions. Thus, species that require high wind velocities for seed abscission could experience threshold-like reductions in dispersal and migration potential if near-surface wind speeds continue to decline.

Global warming will influence the growth and development of both crops and pathogens. The aims of this study were to investigate potential effects of future warming on oilseed rape growth and the epidemiology of the three economically important pathogens Verticillium longisporum, Sclerotinia sclerotiorum, and Leptosphaeria maculans (anamorph: Phoma lingam). We utilized climate chambers and a soil warming facility, where treatments represented regional warming scenarios for Lower Saxony, Germany, by 2050 and 2100, and compared results of both approaches on a thermal time scale by calculating degree-days (dd) from day of sowing, December 1st and March 1st until sampling, the latter correlating best with disease progress. Regression analysis showed that plant growth and growth stages in spring responded almost linearly to increasing thermal time until 1000–1500 dd. Colonization of plant tissue by V. longisporum showed an exponential increase when exceeding 1300–1500 dd and reaching plant growth stage BBCH 74/75 (pod development). V. longisporum colonization of plants may be advanced, potentially leading to higher inoculum densities after harvest and increased economic importance of this pathogen under future warming. Sclerotia germination of S. sclerotiorum reached its maximum at 600–900 dd. Advance of these critical degree-days may lead to earlier apothecia production, potentially advancing the infection window, whereas the future importance of S. sclerotiorum may remain constant. Severity of phoma crown canker increased linearly with increasing thermal time, but showed also large variation in response to the warming scenarios, suggesting that factors such as canopy microclimate in fall or leaf shedding over winter may play a bigger role for L. maculans infection and disease severity than higher soil temperatures. Thermal time was a suitable tool to combine and integrate data on biological responses to soil and air temperature increases from climate chamber and field experiments.

Human-induced changes in atmospheric composition are expected to affect primary productivity across terrestrial biomes. Recent changes in productivity have been observed in many forest ecosystems, but low-latitude upper tree line forests remain to be investigated. Here, we use dendrochronological methods and isotopic analysis to examine changes in productivity, and their physiological basis, in Abies religiosa (Ar) and Pinus hartwegii (Ph) trees growing in high-elevation forests of central Mexico. Six sites were selected across a longitudinal transect (Transverse Volcanic Axis), from the Pacific Ocean toward the Gulf of Mexico, where mature dominant trees were sampled at altitudes ranging from 3200 to 4000 m asl. A total of 60 Ar and 84 Ph trees were analyzed to describe changes in growth (annual-resolution) and isotopic composition (decadal-resolution) since the early 1900s. Our results show an initial widespread increase in basal area increment (BAI) during the first half of the past century. However, BAI has decreased significantly since the 1950s with accentuated decline after the 1980s in both species and across sites. We found a consistent reduction in atmosphere to wood ¹³C discrimination, resulting from increasing water use efficiency (20–60%), coinciding with rising atmospheric CO₂. Changes in ¹³C discrimination were not followed, however, by shifts in tree ring δ¹⁸O, indicating site- and species-specific differences in water source or uptake strategy. Our results indicate that CO₂ stimulation has not been enough to counteract warming-induced drought stress, but other stressors, such as progressive nutrient limitation, could also have contributed to growth decline. Future studies should explore the distinct role of resource limitation (water vs. nutrients) in modulating the response of high-elevation ecosystems to atmospheric change.

Predicted responses of transpiration to elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration (eCO₂) are highly variable amongst process-based models. To better understand and constrain this variability amongst models, we conducted an intercomparison of 11 ecosystem models applied to data from two forest free-air CO₂ enrichment (FACE) experiments at Duke University and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. We analysed model structures to identify the key underlying assumptions causing differences in model predictions of transpiration and canopy water use efficiency. We then compared the models against data to identify model assumptions that are incorrect or are large sources of uncertainty. We found that model-to-model and model-to-observations differences resulted from four key sets of assumptions, namely (i) the nature of the stomatal response to elevated CO₂ (coupling between photosynthesis and stomata was supported by the data); (ii) the roles of the leaf and atmospheric boundary layer (models which assumed multiple conductance terms in series predicted more decoupled fluxes than observed at the broadleaf site); (iii) the treatment of canopy interception (large intermodel variability, 2–15%); and (iv) the impact of soil moisture stress (process uncertainty in how models limit carbon and water fluxes during moisture stress). Overall, model predictions of the CO₂ effect on WUE were reasonable (intermodel μ = approximately 28% ± 10%) compared to the observations (μ = approximately 30% ± 13%) at the well-coupled coniferous site (Duke), but poor (intermodel μ = approximately 24% ± 6%; observations μ = approximately 38% ± 7%) at the broadleaf site (Oak Ridge). The study yields a framework for analysing and interpreting model predictions of transpiration responses to eCO₂, and highlights key improvements to these types of models.

The Arctic has experienced rapid warming and, although there are uncertainties, increases in precipitation are projected to accompany future warming. Climate changes are expected to affect magnitudes of gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP), ecosystem respiration (ER) and the net ecosystem exchange of CO₂ (NEE). Furthermore, ecosystem responses to climate change are likely to be characterized by nonlinearities, thresholds and interactions among system components and the driving variables. These complex interactions increase the difficulty of predicting responses to climate change and necessitate the use of manipulative experiments. In 2003, we established a long-term, multi-level and multi-factor climate change experiment in a polar semidesert in northwest Greenland. Two levels of heating (30 and 60 W m⁻²) were applied and the higher level was combined with supplemental summer rain. We made plot-level measurements of CO₂ exchange, plant community composition, foliar nitrogen concentrations, leaf δ¹³C and NDVI to examine responses to our treatments at ecosystem- and leaf-levels. We confronted simple models of GEP and ER with our data to test hypotheses regarding key drivers of CO₂ exchange and to estimate growing season CO₂-C budgets. Low-level warming increased the magnitude of the ecosystem C sink. Meanwhile, high-level warming made the ecosystem a source of C to the atmosphere. When high-level warming was combined with increased summer rain, the ecosystem became a C sink of magnitude similar to that observed under low-level warming. Competition among our ER models revealed the importance of soil moisture as a driving variable, likely through its effects on microbial activity and nutrient cycling. Measurements of community composition and proxies for leaf-level physiology suggest GEP responses largely reflect changes in leaf area of Salix arctica, rather than changes in leaf-level physiology. Our findings indicate that the sign and magnitude of the future High Arctic C budget may depend upon changes in summer rain.

A frequently advocated approach for forecasting the population-level impacts of climate change is to project models based on historical, observational relationships between climate and demographic rates. Despite the potential pitfalls of this approach, few historically based population models have been experimentally validated. We conducted a precipitation manipulation experiment to test population models fit to observational data collected from the 1930s to the 1970s for six prairie forb species. We used the historical population models to predict experimental responses to the precipitation manipulations, and compared these predictions to ones generated by a statistical model fit directly to the experimental data. For three species, a sensitivity analysis of the effects of precipitation and grass cover on forb population growth showed consistent results for the historical population models and the contemporary statistical models. Furthermore, the historical population models predicted population growth rates in the experimental plots as well or better than the statistical models, ignoring variation explained by spatial random effects and local density-dependence. However, for the remaining three species, the sensitivity analyses showed that the historical and statistical models predicted opposite effects of precipitation on population growth, and the historical models were very poor predictors of experimental responses. For these species, historical observations were not well replicated in space, and for two of them the historical precipitation-demography correlations were weak. Our results highlight the strengths and weaknesses of observational and experimental approaches, and increase our confidence in extrapolating historical relationships to predict population responses to climate change, at least when the historical correlations are strong and based on well-replicated observations.

Does agricultural intensification reduce the area used for agricultural production in Brazil? Census and other data for time periods 1975–1996 and 1996–2006 were processed and analyzed using Geographic Information System and statistical tools to investigate whether and if so, how, changes in yield and stocking rate coincide with changes in cropland and pasture area. Complementary medium-resolution data on total farmland area changes were used in a spatially explicit assessment of the land-use transitions that occurred in Brazil during 1960–2006. The analyses show that in agriculturally consolidated areas (mainly southern and southeastern Brazil), land-use intensification (both on cropland and pastures) coincided with either contraction of both cropland and pasture areas, or cropland expansion at the expense of pastures, both cases resulting in farmland stability or contraction. In contrast, in agricultural frontier areas (i.e., the deforestation zones in central and northern Brazil), land-use intensification coincided with expansion of agricultural lands. These observations provide support for the thesis that (i) technological improvements create incentives for expansion in agricultural frontier areas; and (ii) farmers are likely to reduce their managed acreage only if land becomes a scarce resource. The spatially explicit examination of land-use transitions since 1960 reveals an expansion and gradual movement of the agricultural frontier toward the interior (center-western Cerrado) of Brazil. It also indicates a possible initiation of a reversed trend in line with the forest transition theory, i.e., agricultural contraction and recurring forests in marginally suitable areas in southeastern Brazil, mainly within the Atlantic Forest biome. The significant reduction in deforestation that has taken place in recent years, despite rising food commodity prices, indicates that policies put in place to curb conversion of native vegetation to agriculture land might be effective. This can improve the prospects for protecting native vegetation by investing in agricultural intensification.

Atmospheric concentrations of methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) have increased over the last 150 years because of human activity. Soils are important sources and sinks of both potent greenhouse gases where their production and consumption are largely regulated by biological processes. Climate change could alter these processes thereby affecting both rate and direction of their exchange with the atmosphere. We examined how a rise in atmospheric CO₂ and temperature affected CH₄ and N₂O fluxes in a well-drained upland soil (volumetric water content ranging between 6% and 23%) in a semiarid grassland during five growing seasons. We hypothesized that responses of CH₄ and N₂O fluxes to elevated CO₂ and warming would be driven primarily by treatment effects on soil moisture. Previously we showed that elevated CO₂ increased and warming decreased soil moisture in this grassland. We therefore expected that elevated CO₂ and warming would have opposing effects on CH₄ and N₂O fluxes. Methane was taken up throughout the growing season in all 5 years. A bell-shaped relationship was observed with soil moisture with highest CH₄ uptake at intermediate soil moisture. Both N₂O emission and uptake occurred at our site with some years showing cumulative N₂O emission and other years showing cumulative N₂O uptake. Nitrous oxide exchange switched from net uptake to net emission with increasing soil moisture. In contrast to our hypothesis, both elevated CO₂ and warming reduced the sink of CH₄ and N₂O expressed in CO₂ equivalents (across 5 years by 7% and 11% for elevated CO₂ and warming respectively) suggesting that soil moisture changes were not solely responsible for this reduction. We conclude that in a future climate this semiarid grassland may become a smaller sink for atmospheric CH₄ and N₂O expressed in CO₂-equivalents.

Limiting the increase in global average temperature to 2 °C is the objective of international efforts aimed at avoiding dangerous climate impacts. However, the regional response of terrestrial ecosystems and the services that they provide under such a scenario are largely unknown. We focus on mountain forests in the European Alps and evaluate how a range of ecosystem services (ES) are projected to be impacted in a 2 °C warmer world, using four novel regional climate scenarios. We employ three complementary forest models to assess a wide range of ES in two climatically contrasting case study regions. Within each climate scenario we evaluate if and when ES will deviate beyond status quo boundaries that are based on current system variability. Our results suggest that the sensitivity of mountain forest ES to a 2 °C warmer world depends heavily on the current climatic conditions of a region, the strong elevation gradients within a region, and the specific ES in question. Our simulations project that large negative impacts will occur at low and intermediate elevations in initially warm-dry regions, where relatively small climatic shifts result in negative drought-related impacts on forest ES. In contrast, at higher elevations, and in regions that are initially cool-wet, forest ES will be comparatively resistant to a 2 °C warmer world. We also found considerable variation in the vulnerability of forest ES to climate change, with some services such as protection against rockfall and avalanches being sensitive to 2 °C global climate change, but other services such as carbon storage being reasonably resistant. Although our results indicate a heterogeneous response of mountain forest ES to climate change, the projected substantial reduction of some forest ES in dry regions suggests that a 2 °C increase in global mean temperature cannot be seen as a universally ‘safe’ boundary for the maintenance of mountain forest ES.

The Humboldt Current System (HCS) sustains the world′s largest small pelagic fishery. While a cooling of this system has been observed during recent decades, there is debate about the potential impacts of rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations on upwelling dynamics and productivity. Recent studies suggest that under increased atmospheric CO₂ scenarios the oceanic stratification may strongly increase and upwelling-favorable winds may remain nearly constant off Peru and increase off Chile. Here we investigate the impact of such climatic conditions on egg and larval dispersal phases, a key stage of small pelagic fish reproduction. We used larval retention rate in a predefined nursery area to provide a proxy for the recruitment level. Numerical experiments are based on hydrodynamics downscaled to the HCS from global simulations forced by pre-industrial (PI), 2 × CO₂ and 4 × CO₂ scenarios. A biogeochemical model is applied to the PI and 4 × CO₂ scenarios to define a time-variable nursery area where larval survival is optimum. We test two distinct values of the oxycline depth that limits larval vertical distribution: One corresponding to the present-day situation and the other corresponding to a shallower oxycline potentially produced by climate change. It appeared that larval retention over the continental shelf increases with enhanced stratification due to regional warming. However, this increase in retention is largely compensated for by a decrease of the nursery area and the shoaling of the oxycline. The underlying dynamics are explained by a combination of stratification effects and mesoscale activity changes. Our results therefore show that future climate change may significantly reduce fish capacity in the HCS with strong ecological, economic and social consequences.

According to the IPCC, the global average temperature is likely to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C over the period from 1990 to 2100. In Polar regions, the magnitude of such climatic changes is even larger than in temperate and tropical biomes. This amplified response is particularly worrisome given that the so-far moderate warming is already impacting Arctic ecosystems. Predicting species responses to rapid warming in the near future can be informed by investigating past responses, as, like the rest of the planet, the Arctic experienced recurrent cycles of temperature increase and decrease (glacial–interglacial changes) in the past. In this study, we compare the response of two important prey species of the Arctic ecosystem, the collared lemming and the narrow-skulled vole, to Late Quaternary climate change. Using ancient DNA and Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM), we show that the two species, which occupy similar, but not identical ecological niches, show markedly different responses to climatic and environmental changes within broadly similar habitats. We empirically demonstrate, utilizing coalescent model-testing approaches, that collared lemming populations decreased substantially after the Last Glacial Maximum; a result consistent with distributional loss over the same period based on ENM results. Given this strong association, we projected the current niche onto future climate conditions based on IPCC 4.0 scenarios, and forecast accelerating loss of habitat along southern range boundaries with likely associated demographic consequences. Narrow-skulled vole distribution and demography, by contrast, was only moderately impacted by past climatic changes, but predicted future changes may begin to affect their current western range boundaries. Our work, founded on multiple lines of evidence suggests a future of rapidly geographically shifting Arctic small mammal prey communities, some of whom are on the edge of existence, and whose fate may have ramifications for the whole Arctic food web and ecosystem.

The Late Quaternary was a time of rapid climatic oscillations and drastic environmental changes. In general, species can respond to such changes by behavioral accommodation, distributional shifts, ecophenotypic modifications (nongenetic), evolution (genetic) or ultimately face local extinction. How those responses manifested in the past is essential for properly predicting future ones especially as the current warm phase is further intensified by rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Here, we use ancient DNA (aDNA) and morphological features in combination with ecological niche modeling (ENM) to investigate genetic and nongenetic responses of Central European Palearctic shrews to past climatic change. We show that a giant form of shrew, previously described as an extinct Pleistocene Sorex species, represents a large ecomorph of the common shrew (Sorex araneus), which was replaced by populations from a different gene-pool and with different morphology after the Pleistocene Holocene transition. We also report the presence of the cold-adapted tundra shrew (S. tundrensis) in Central Europe. This species is currently restricted to Siberia and was hitherto unknown as an element of the Pleistocene fauna of Europe. Finally, we show that there is no clear correlation between climatic oscillations within the last 50 000 years and body size in shrews and conclude that a special nonanalogous situation with regard to biodiversity and food supply in the Late Glacial may have caused the observed large body size.

In many grasslands, grazing by large native or introduced ungulates drives ecosystem structure and function. The behavior of these animals is important as it directs the spatial effects of grazing. To the degree that temperature drives spatial components of foraging, understanding how changes in climate alter grazing behavior will provide guidance for the conservation of ecosystem goods and services. We determined the behavioral response of native bison (Bison bison) and introduced cattle (Bos taurus) to temperature in tallgrass prairie within the Great Plains, USA. We described the thermal environment by measuring operative temperature (the temperature perceived by animals) through space and time. Site selection preferences of ungulates were quantified using resource selection functions. Woody vegetation in tallgrass prairie provided a cooler thermal environment for large ungulates, decreasing operative temperature up to 16 °C in the heat of the summer. Cattle began to seek thermal refugia at lower air temperatures (24 °C) by selecting areas closer to woody vegetation and water sources. Bison, however, sought refugia within wooded areas at higher air temperatures (36 °C), which occurred much less frequently. Both species became more attracted to riparian areas as air temperature increased, with preferences increasing tenfold during the hottest periods. As predicted warming occurs across the Great Plains and other grasslands, grazing behavior and subsequent grazing effects will be altered. Riparian areas, particularly those with both water and woody vegetation, will receive greater utilization and selection by large ungulates. The use of native grazers for conservation or livestock production may mitigate negative effects caused by increased temperatures.

Ocean acidification represents a threat to marine species worldwide, and forecasting the ecological impacts of acidification is a high priority for science, management, and policy. As research on the topic expands at an exponential rate, a comprehensive understanding of the variability in organisms' responses and corresponding levels of certainty is necessary to forecast the ecological effects. Here, we perform the most comprehensive meta-analysis to date by synthesizing the results of 228 studies examining biological responses to ocean acidification. The results reveal decreased survival, calcification, growth, development and abundance in response to acidification when the broad range of marine organisms is pooled together. However, the magnitude of these responses varies among taxonomic groups, suggesting there is some predictable trait-based variation in sensitivity, despite the investigation of approximately 100 new species in recent research. The results also reveal an enhanced sensitivity of mollusk larvae, but suggest that an enhanced sensitivity of early life history stages is not universal across all taxonomic groups. In addition, the variability in species' responses is enhanced when they are exposed to acidification in multi-species assemblages, suggesting that it is important to consider indirect effects and exercise caution when forecasting abundance patterns from single-species laboratory experiments. Furthermore, the results suggest that other factors, such as nutritional status or source population, could cause substantial variation in organisms' responses. Last, the results highlight a trend towards enhanced sensitivity to acidification when taxa are concurrently exposed to elevated seawater temperature.

The mean predicted decrease of 0.3–0.4 pH units in the global surface ocean by the end of the century has prompted urgent research to assess the potential effects of ocean acidification on the marine environment, with strong emphasis on calcifying organisms. Among them, the Mediterranean red coral (Corallium rubrum) is expected to be particularly susceptible to acidification effects, due to the elevated solubility of its Mg-calcite skeleton. This, together with the large overexploitation of this species, depicts a bleak future for this organism over the next decades. In this study, we evaluated the effects of low pH on the species from aquaria experiments. Several colonies of C. rubrum were long-term maintained for 314 days in aquaria at two different pH levels (8.10 and 7.81, pH_T). Calcification rate, spicule morphology, major biochemical constituents (protein, carbohydrates and lipids) and fatty acids composition were measured periodically. Exposure to lower pH conditions caused a significant decrease in the skeletal growth rate in comparison with the control treatment. Similarly, the spicule morphology clearly differed between both treatments at the end of the experiment, with aberrant shapes being observed only under the acidified conditions. On the other hand, while total organic matter was significantly higher under low pH conditions, no significant differences were detected between treatments regarding total carbohydrate, lipid, protein and fatty acid composition. However, the lower variability found among samples maintained in acidified conditions relative to controls, suggests a possible effect of pH decrease on the metabolism of the colonies. Our results show, for the first time, evidence of detrimental ocean acidification effects on this valuable and endangered coral species.

Global losses of seagrasses and mangroves, eutrophication-driven increases in ephemeral algae, and macrophyte invasions have impacted estuarine detrital resources. To understand the implications of these changes on benthic ecosystem processes, we tested the hypotheses that detrital source richness, mix identity, and biomass influence benthic primary production, metabolism, and nutrient fluxes. On an estuarine muddy sandflat, we manipulated the availability of eight detrital sources, including mangrove, seagrass, and invasive and native algal species that have undergone substantial changes in distribution. Mixes of these detrital sources were randomly assigned to one of 12 treatments and dried detrital material was added to seventy-two 0.25 m² plots (n = 6 plots). The treatments included combinations of either two or four detrital sources and high (60 g) or low (40 g) levels of enrichments. After 2 months, the dark, light, and net uptake of NH₄⁺, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, and the dark efflux of dissolved organic nitrogen were each significantly influenced by the identity of detrital mixes, rather than detrital source richness or biomass. However, gross and net primary productivity, average oxygen flux, and net NO_X and dissolved inorganic phosphorous fluxes were significantly greater in treatments with low than with high detrital source richness. These results demonstrate that changes in detrital source richness and mix identity may be important drivers of estuarine ecosystem performance. Continued impacts to estuarine macrophytes may, therefore, further alter detritus-fueled productivity and processes in estuaries. Specific tests that address predicted future changes to detrital resources are required to determine the consequences of this significant environmental problem.

Biological mediation of carbonate dissolution represents a fundamental component of the destructive forces acting on coral reef ecosystems. Whereas ocean acidification can increase dissolution of carbonate substrates, the combined impact of ocean acidification and warming on the microbioerosion of coral skeletons remains unknown. Here, we exposed skeletons of the reef-building corals, Porites cylindrica and Isopora cuneata, to present-day (Control: 400 μatm – 24 °C) and future pCO₂–temperature scenarios projected for the end of the century (Medium: +230 μatm – +2 °C; High: +610 μatm – +4 °C). Skeletons were also subjected to permanent darkness with initial sodium hypochlorite incubation, and natural light without sodium hypochlorite incubation to isolate the environmental effect of acidic seawater (i.e., Ω_aragonite <1) from the biological effect of photosynthetic microborers. Our results indicated that skeletal dissolution is predominantly driven by photosynthetic microborers, as samples held in the dark did not decalcify. In contrast, dissolution of skeletons exposed to light increased under elevated pCO₂–temperature scenarios, with P. cylindrica experiencing higher dissolution rates per month (89%) than I. cuneata (46%) in the high treatment relative to control. The effects of future pCO₂–temperature scenarios on the structure of endolithic communities were only identified in P. cylindrica and were mostly associated with a higher abundance of the green algae Ostreobium spp. Enhanced skeletal dissolution was also associated with increased endolithic biomass and respiration under elevated pCO₂–temperature scenarios. Our results suggest that future projections of ocean acidification and warming will lead to increased rates of microbioerosion. However, the magnitude of bioerosion responses may depend on the structural properties of coral skeletons, with a range of implications for reef carbonate losses under warmer and more acidic oceans.

Climate change is reshaping biological communities against a background of existing human pressure. Evaluating the impacts of multiple stressors on community dynamics can be particularly challenging in species-rich ecosystems, such as coral reefs. Here, we investigate whether life-history strategies and cotolerance to different stressors can predict community responses to fishing and temperature-driven bleaching using a 20-year time series of coral assemblages in Kenya. We found that the initial life-history composition of coral taxa largely determined the impacts of bleaching and coral loss. Prior to the 1998 bleaching event, coral assemblages within no-take marine reserves were composed of three distinct life histories – competitive, stress-tolerant and weedy– and exhibited strong declines following bleaching with limited subsequent recovery. In contrast, fished reefs had lower coral cover, fewer genera and were composed of stress-tolerant and weedy corals that were less affected by bleaching over the long term. Despite these general patterns, we found limited evidence for cotolerance as coral genera and life histories were variable in their sensitivities to fishing and bleaching. Overall, fishing and bleaching have reduced coral diversity and led to altered coral communities of ‘survivor’ species with stress-tolerant and weedy life histories. Our findings are consistent with expectations that climate change interacting with existing human pressure will result in the loss of coral diversity and critical reef habitat.

Soil respiration (R_soil) is one of the largest CO₂ fluxes in the global carbon (C) cycle. Estimation of annual R_soil requires extrapolation of survey measurements or gap filling of automated records to produce a complete time series. Although many gap filling methodologies have been employed, there is no standardized procedure for producing defensible estimates of annual R_soil. Here, we test the reliability of nine different gap filling techniques by inserting artificial gaps into 20 automated R_soil records and comparing gap filling R_soil estimates of each technique to measured values. We show that although the most commonly used techniques do not, on average, produce large systematic biases, gap filling accuracy may be significantly improved through application of the most reliable methods. All methods performed best at lower gap fractions and had relatively high, systematic errors for simulated survey measurements. Overall, the most accurate technique estimated R_soil based on the soil temperature dependence of R_soil by assuming constant temperature sensitivity and linearly interpolating reference respiration (R_soil at 10 °C) across gaps. The linear interpolation method was the second best-performing method. In contrast, estimating R_soil based on a single annual R_soil – T_soil relationship, which is currently the most commonly used technique, was among the most poorly-performing methods. Thus, our analysis demonstrates that gap filling accuracy may be improved substantially without sacrificing computational simplicity. Improved and standardized techniques for estimation of annual R_soil will be valuable for understanding the role of R_soil in the global C cycle.

Vegetation forms a main component of the terrestrial biosphere and plays a crucial role in land-cover and climate-related studies. Activity of vegetation systems is commonly quantified using remotely sensed vegetation indices (VI). Extensive reports on temporal trends over the past decades in time series of such indices can be found in literature. However, little remains known about the processes underlying these changes at large spatial scales. In this study, we aimed at quantifying the spatial relationship between changes in potential climatic growth constraints (i.e. temperature, precipitation and incident solar radiation) and changes in vegetation activity (1982–2008). We demonstrate an additive spatial model with 0.5° resolution, consisting of a regression component representing climate-associated effects and a spatially correlated field representing the combined influence of other factors, including land-use change. Little over 50% of the spatial variance could be attributed to changes in climatologies; conspicuously, many greening trends and browning hotspots in Argentina and Australia. The nonassociated model component may contain large-scale human interventions, feedback mechanisms or natural effects, which were not captured by the climatologies. Browning hotspots in this component were especially found in subequatorial Africa. On the scale of land-cover types, strongest relationships between climatologies and vegetation activity were found in forests, including indications for browning under warming conditions (analogous to the divergence issue discussed in dendroclimatology).