Historical ecology research is valuable for assessing long-term baselines, and is increasingly applicable to conservation and management. In this study, we describe how historical range data can inform key aspects of protected species management, including evaluating conservation status and recovery, and determining practical management units. We examine contemporary (1973–2012) and historical (1250–1950) data on nesting beach distributions for green sea turtles Chelonia mydas in the Hawaiian Islands. Green turtle populations in Hawai‘i declined until federal and international protections began in the 1970s, but over the past four decades one index population has shown encouraging increases and broader recovery has been inferred. We find that 80% of historically major nesting populations are extirpated, or have heavily reduced nesting abundances in comparison with current estimates. Furthermore, historical nesting areas were not geographically isolated, but distributed across the archipelago. In comparison, today more than 90% of green turtle nesting in Hawai‘i occurs at a single site that is vulnerable to sea level rise. This research suggests that assessing recovery without historical data on spatial patterns may overlook important ecological dynamics at the popu lation or ecosystem level, which can result in improper or inadequate conservation assessments and recovery targets.

Composition of animal communities can be shaped by both local and regional processes. Among others, dispersal of organisms links local and regional patterns and determines the similarity of communities at increasing spatial distances. Unique and shared spatial and environmental contributions to fish community composition were calculated for watercourse distances between 49 hydrologically connected lakes in the German lowland area. Variation partitioning indicated a dominant unique effect of spatial predictors on fish community composition, whereas the effects of lake morphometry and productivity were weaker. The spatial effect was attributable to an uneven occurrence of small, littoral fish species found even at the small spatial extension covered here (maximum spatial distance ˜550 km). Distance decay of community similarity was moderate, but significant, if all 31 fish species were considered, but the slope of the decay function became steeper if only 11 small-sized, primarily littoral species were included. These results suggest that fish in European lowland lakes can be considered a metacommunity with limited dispersal along watercourse connections in particular for small-sized species. The analysis supports that for an appropriate evaluation of spatial effects on fish community similarity, reliable estimates of local richness are required which include in particular also rare, small-sized species occurring primarily in littoral areas. Furthermore, watercourse distance is a more reliable approximation than Euclidean distance to the real spatial dimension of fish dispersal.

Presence-only data abounds in ecology, often accompanied by a background sample. Although many interesting aspects of the species’ distribution can be learned from such data, one cannot learn the overall species occurrence probability, or prevalence, without making unjustified simplifying assumptions. In this forum article we question the approach of Royle et al. (2012) that claims to be able to do this.

The structure of species interaction networks is important for species coexistence, community stability and exposure of species to extinctions. Two widespread structures in ecological networks are modularity, i.e. weakly connected subgroups of species that are internally highly interlinked, and nestedness, i.e. specialist species that interact with a subset of those species with which generalist species also interact. Modularity and nestedness are often interpreted as evolutionary ecological structures that may have relevance for community persistence and resilience against perturbations, such as climate-change. Therefore, historical climatic fluctuations could influence modularity and nestedness, but this possibility remains untested. This lack of research is in sharp contrast to the considerable efforts to disentangle the role of historical climate-change and contemporary climate on species distributions, richness and community composition patterns. Here, we use a global database of pollination networks to show that historical climate-change is at least as important as contemporary climate in shaping modularity and nestedness of pollination networks. Specifically, on the mainland we found a relatively strong negative association between Quaternary climate-change and modularity, whereas nestedness was most prominent in areas having experienced high Quaternary climate-change. On islands, Quaternary climate-change had weak effects on modularity and no effects on nestedness. Hence, for both modularity and nestedness, historical climate-change has left imprints on the network structure of mainland communities, but had comparably little effect on island communities. Our findings highlight a need to integrate historical climate fluctuations into eco-evolutionary hypotheses of network structures, such as modularity and nestedness, and then test these against empirical data. We propose that historical climate-change may have left imprints in the structural organisation of species interactions in an array of systems important for maintaining biological diversity.

Ecological niche models (ENMs) are the primary tool used to describe and forecast the potential influence of climate change on biodiversity. However, ENMs do not directly account for important biological and landscape processes likely to affect range dynamics at a variety of spatial scales. Recent advances to link ENMs with population models have focused on the fundamental step of integrating dispersal and metapopulation dynamics into forecasts of species geographic ranges. Here we use a combination of novel analyses and a synthesis of findings from published plant and animal case studies to highlight three seldom recognised, yet important, advantages of linking ENMs with demographic modelling approaches: 1) they provide direct measures of extinction risk in addition to measures of vulnerability based on change in the potential range area or total habitat suitability. 2) They capture life-history traits that permit population density to vary in different ways in response to key spatial drivers, conditioned by the processes of global change. 3) They can be used to explore and rank the cost effectiveness of regional conservation alternatives and demographically oriented management interventions. Given these advantages, we argue that coupled methods should be used preferentially where data permits and when conservation management decisions require intervention, prioritization, or direct estimates of extinction risk.

Body size variation among animals has many possible correlates, temporal as well as geographic. Adult male body size was analysed over the course of 23 yr (1989–2011) in a population of Fowler’s toads Anaxyrus fowleri at Long Point, Ontario. We used an information theoretic approach to identify the most likely models to explain body length variation in relation to abundance, age and environmental variables, including temperature. Male toads overall averaged 53.6 ± 0.1 (SE) mm (n = 1976) but average body length from year to year varied from 50.9 ± 0.2 to 61.4 ± 1.3 mm (n = 23 yr), a difference of 18.7%. Abundance was the only variable significantly correlated with body size variation (R²= 0.713, p = < 0.001). A significant 10-yr trend in increased body size (R²= 0.874, p = < 0.001) was coincident with a previously detected negative trend in abundance. A 0.05°C yr⁻¹ increase in environmental temperature over the course of our study was not significantly correlated with the toads’ body size. Body size variation in these toads is likely related to density-dependent resource availability for growth in the terrestrial stage. Temporal changes in average body size within populations in relation to density may be a significant component of phenotypic variation.

Natural disturbances are key factors for the development of forest ecosystems. In forests of central Europe and Scandinavia, the European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is the most devastating biotic disturbance agent in Norway spruce Picea abies, but our understanding of the factors determining its spatio-temporal dynamics is still quite limited. To quantify the drivers of bark beetle dynamics, we analyzed a survey dataset with annual resolution that covers 17 yr and 469 forest districts (10 860 km² of forest area) all over Switzerland. We used Poisson log-normal models in a Bayesian framework to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of bark beetle infestation spots at the forest district level. Bark beetle infestations increased with increasing heat sum (> 8.3°C), volume of standing Norway spruce stock, and the number of infestation spots of the previous year. Precipitation tended to slightly affect the risk of bark beetle infestations. Two major storm events further increased the spatio-temporal variability of bark beetle infestations. Spruce abundance, storm damage and temperature are known to be important factors influencing the population dynamics of the European spruce bark beetle. Our study is the first to quantify the combined effects of spruce abundance and heat sum, whereby the heat sum turned out to be the most important and consistent predictor. Because our study area encompasses large ecological and climatological gradients, our model is likely to be applicable to Norway spruce forests in other regions of central Europe and Scandinavia.

Little is known about the impact of disturbances on functional diversity and the long-term provisioning of ecosystem services, especially in animals. In this work we analyze the effect of wildfire on the functional composition of Mediterranean ant communities. In particular, we asked whether a) fire changes functional composition (mean and dissimilarity of trait values) at the community level; and b) such fire-induced functional modification is driven by changes in the relative abundance-dominance of species or by a replacement of species with different traits. We sampled ant communities in burned and unburned plots along 22 sites in a western Mediterranean region, and we computed two complementary functional trait composition indices (‘trait average’ and ‘trait dissimilarity’) for 12 functional traits (related to resource exploitation, social structure and reproduction) and with two different datasets varying in the way species abundance is considered (i.e. abundance and occurrence data). Our results suggest a set of functional responses that seem to be related to direct mortality by fire as well as to indirect fire-induced modifications in environmental conditions relevant for ants. Trait average of colony size, worker size, worker polymorphism and the ratio between queen and worker size, as well as the trait dissimilarity of the proportion of behaviorally dominant species and of liquid food consumption, and overall functional diversity, were higher in burned than in unburned areas. Interestingly, different patterns arise when comparing results from abundance and occurrence data. While the response to fire in trait averages is quite similar, in the case of trait dissimilarity, the higher values in response to fire are much more marked when considering occurrence rather than abundance data. Our results suggest that changes in trait average are driven at the same time by replacement of species with different traits and by changes in the relative abundance-dominance of species, while fire promotes a higher diversity of functions that is primarily driven by rare species that are functionally unique. Overall, we observed major fire-induced changes in functional composition in Mediterranean ant communities that might have relevant consequences for ecosystem processes and services.

Correlative species distribution models are frequently used to predict species’ range shifts under climate change. However, climate variables often show high collinearity and most statistical approaches require the selection of one among strongly correlated variables. When causal relationships between species presence and climate parameters are unknown, variable selection is often arbitrary, or based on predictive performance under current conditions. While this should only marginally affect current range predictions, future distributions may vary considerably when climate parameters do not change in concert. We investigated this source of uncertainty using four highly correlated climate variables together with a constant set of landscape variables in order to predict current (2010) and future (2050) distributions of four mountain bird species in central Europe. Simulating different parameterization decisions, we generated a) four models including each of the climate variables singly, b) a model taking advantage of all variables simultaneously and c) an un-weighted average of the predictions of a). We compared model accuracy under current conditions, predicted distributions under four scenarios of climate change, and – for one species – evaluated back-projections using historical occurrence data. Although current and future variable-correlations remained constant, and the models’ accuracy under contemporary conditions did not differ, future range predictions varied considerably in all climate change scenarios. Averaged models and models containing all climate variables simultaneously produced intermediate predictions; the latter, however, performed best in back-projections. This pattern, consistent across different modelling methods, indicates a benefit from including multiple climate predictors in ambiguous situations. Variable selection proved to be an important source of uncertainty for future range predictions, difficult to control using contemporary information. Small, but diverging changes of climate variables, masked by constant overall correlation patterns, can cause substantial differences between future range predictions which need to be accounted for, particularly when outcomes are intended for conservation decisions.

In the marine realm, the tropics host an extraordinary diversity of taxa but the drivers underlying the global distribution of marine organisms are still under scrutiny and we still lack an accurate global predictive model. Using a spatial database for 6336 tropical reef fishes, we attempted to predict species richness according to geometric, biogeographical and environmental explanatory variables. In particular, we aimed to evaluate and disentangle the predictive performances of temperature, habitat area, connectivity, mid-domain effect and biogeographical region on reef fish species richness. We used boosted regression trees, a flexible machine-learning technique, to build our predictive model and structural equation modeling to test for potential ‘mediation effects’ among predictors. Our model proved to be accurate, explaining 80% of the total deviance in fish richness using a cross-validated procedure. Coral reef area and biogeographical region were the primary predictors of reef fish species richness, followed by coast length, connectivity, mid-domain effect and sea surface temperature, with interactions between the region and other predictors. Important indirect effects of water temperature on reef fish richness, mediated by coral reef area, were also identified. The relationship between environmental predictors and species richness varied markedly among biogeographical regions. Our analysis revealed that a few easily accessible variables can accurately predict reef fish species richness. They also highlight concerns regarding ongoing environmental declines, with region-specific responses to variation in environmental conditions predicting a variable response to anthropogenic impacts.

Community-level patterns of functional traits relate to community assembly and ecosystem functioning. By modelling the changes of different indices describing such patterns – trait means, extremes and diversity in communities – as a function of abiotic gradients, we could understand their drivers and build projections of the impact of global change on the functional components of biodiversity. We used five plant functional traits (vegetative height, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf nitrogen content and seed mass) and non-woody vegetation plots to model several indices depicting community-level patterns of functional traits from a set of abiotic environmental variables (topographic, climatic and edaphic) over contrasting environmental conditions in a mountainous landscape. We performed a variation partitioning analysis to assess the relative importance of these variables for predicting patterns of functional traits in communities, and projected the best models under several climate change scenarios to examine future potential changes in vegetation functional properties. Not all indices of trait patterns within communities could be modelled with the same level of accuracy: the models for mean and extreme values of functional traits provided substantially better predictive accuracy than the models calibrated for diversity indices. Topographic and climatic factors were more important predictors of functional trait patterns within communities than edaphic predictors. Overall, model projections forecast an increase in mean vegetation height and in mean specific leaf area following climate warming. This trend was important at mid elevation particularly between 1000 and 2000 m a.s.l. With this study we showed that topographic, climatic and edaphic variables can successfully model descriptors of community-level patterns of plant functional traits such as mean and extreme trait values. However, which factors determine the diversity of functional traits in plant communities remains unclear and requires more investigations.

There is an expectation that climate change will drive turnover in the composition of ecological communities. Established methods for predicting the degree of turnover and spatial areas and taxonomic groups that will be most affected from real data are lacking. We tested a combination of spatial modelling tools to make these predictions. Using data from systematic vegetation survey plots from the Adelaide Geosyncline region, southern Australia, we modelled species turnover as a function of bioclimatic and geographic distances and predicted turnover using future climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2070. We conducted bioclimatic gradient analysis (CCA) on species composition data and mapped zones of higher turnover. The method for detecting these zones was tested using a simulation of continuous turnover. A phylogeny was generated for recorded species and correlations of occurrences of phylogenetic groups with species turnover were calculated. Significant turnover was predicted for the least severe climate change scenarios and near-complete species turnover for the most severe scenario. Gradient analysis revealed discrete transitional zones with more rapid turnover, which were interpreted as a mesic–arid ecotone. Turnover occurred at family level and with increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall there was a shift from the prevalence of Ericaceae, Myrtaceae, Haloragaceae, Cyperaceae, and Xanthorrhoeaceae to that of Amaranthaceae, Malvaceae, Scrophulariaceae, Sapindaceae, and Solanaceae. The mesic end of this climate gradient had relatively low rates of turnover and was interpreted as a refugium with a tipping point. The translation of spatial patterns to temporal change is dependent partly upon scales at which community assembly processes operate and predicts relative vulnerability, but not rates of change, which can only be measured through monitoring. The approach can be applied at any spatial or taxonomic scale subject to sufficient data resolution and can inform management decisions as to biases in climate change risks.

Species diversity of geometrid moths (Lepidoptera, Geometridae) has previously been shown to be extremely and constantly high along a continuously forested elevational gradient in the Andes of southern Ecuador. We analysed samples taken from 32 sites between 1999 and 2011 in northern Podocarpus National Park and adjacent areas from 1020 to 2916 m a.s.l. We conjecture that high elevation habitats were historically mostly colonised by species from lower elevations, and that environmental filtering (e.g. through host plant specificity or temperature tolerance) constrained colonisation from lower elevations, which would yield a pattern of elevationally decreasing phylogenetic diversity. We analysed elevational phylogenetic patterns by means of: 1) the nearest-taxon index (NTI), 2) DNA barcode-based terminal branch lengths (TBLs) from maximum-likelihood phylogeny, 3) the subfamily composition of the local assemblages, and 4), the rarefied number of morphologically defined genera per site.

We update the global assessment of seed dispersal by ants and test the hypothesis that the body size of seed-dispersing ant species varies with latitude in the same way as dispersal distance. We compiled all published data about seed dispersal distance by myrmecochory through March, 2011. We then broke the data down by vegetation type, geography and taxonomy. We also compiled data on body size (body length) of the seed-dispersing ant species from the studies consulted. Based on 7889 observations, the mean dispersal distance was 1.99 m, although the curve has a long tail extending to 180 m. Considering the mean dispersal distance by ant species and study as independent data, the mean dispersal distance was 2.24 ± 7.19 m (n = 183). Shorter distances are associated with smaller ant species, while the tail of the dispersal curve is due to larger ant species. The mean dispersal distance of myrmecochorous seeds dispersed by ants decreased with increasing latitude, but there was no significant relationship between the body size of dispersing ant species and latitude (i.e. myrmecochorous seed-dispersing ant species do not follow Bergmann's rule). In 1998 we made three predictions: 1) the dispersal distances of the Southern Hemisphere will decrease with as more data from mesophyllous vegetation are obtained; 2) assuming that ant nest density is higher at lower latitudes, the differences in distances between hemispheres would probably decrease with more data; and 3) numerical differences between dispersal distances in mesophyllous and sclerophyllous vegetation zones would increase with more data. The results obtained since 1998 support the only the third prediction. The dispersal distances in mesophyllous vegetation zones are shorter than in the sclerophyllous vegetation zones, and the difference between 1998 have increased. The differences in dispersal distances between hemispheres are consistent with the avoidance of parent–offspring competition (escape hypothesis).

Understanding the ability of species to shift their distribution ranges in response to climate change is crucial for conservation biologists and resources managers. Although freshwater ecosystems include some of the most imperilled fauna worldwide, such range shifts have been poorly documented in streams and rivers and have never been compared to the current velocity of climate change. Based on national monitoring data, we examined the distributional changes of 32 stream fish species in France and quantified potential time lags in species responses, providing a unique opportunity to analyze range shifts over recent decades of warming in freshwater environments. A multi-facetted approach, based on several range measures along spatial gradients, allowed us to quantify range shifts of numerous species across the whole hydrographic network between an initial period (1980–1992) and a contemporary one (2003–2009), and to contrast them to the rates of isotherm shift in elevation and stream distance. Our results highlight systematic species shifts towards higher elevation and upstream, with mean shifts in range centre of 13.7 m decade⁻¹ and 0.6 km decade⁻¹, respectively. Fish species displayed dispersal-driven expansions along the altitudinal gradient at their upper range limit (61.5 m decade⁻¹), while substantial range contractions at the lower limit (6.3 km decade⁻¹) were documented for most species along the upstream–downstream gradient. Despite being consistent with the geographic variation in climate change velocities, these patterns reveal that the majority of stream fish have not shifted at a pace sufficient to track changing climate, in particular at their range centre where range shifts lag far behind expectation. Our study provides evidence that stream fish are currently responding to recent climate warming at a greater rate than many terrestrial organisms, although not as much as needed to cope with future climate modifications.

Several studies have recently reported that common species are more important for species richness patterns than rare species. However, most such studies have been based on broad-scale atlas data. We studied the contribution of different species occupancy, i.e. number of plots occupied, to species richness patterns emerging from species data in 50 by 50 m plots within six 140–200 ha forests in Norway. The study included vascular plants, lichens, bryophytes, and polypore fungi. We addressed the following questions: 1) are common species more correlated with species richness than rare species? 2) How do occupancy classes combine at various levels of species richness? 3) Which occupancy class is best in identifying the overall most species-rich sites (hotspots) by sampling?

In addition to habitat loss and fragmentation, agricultural change has led to a change in seed dispersal processes in the rural landscape through a loss of structural and functional connectivity. Here, human-mediated dispersal vectors are prevalent, and we explored whether the loss of connectivity via free-ranging livestock could be mitigated by the increase in roads and motor vehicles. We found that structurally, 39% of all valuable semi-natural grassland habitats in southern Sweden are adjacent to public road verges, which in the rural landscape are often considered to be suitable habitat for grassland species. Additionally, by collecting mud attached to cars and farming machinery and manure from livestock (cattle, horse, sheep) grazing semi-natural grassland pasture, we found that motor vehicles are also capable seed dispersers. A similar number of species were dispersed by both vectors, although the composition of samples was quite different. Motor vehicles dispersed more grassland specialists than invasive species, although in much lower abundances than did grazing livestock. Despite these differences, motor vehicles were found to be able to disperse species with the same kinds of dispersal traits as livestock. A high number of seeds, species and specialists in manure samples means that greater movement of livestock is desirable to increase functional grassland connectivity. However, effective management could improve the suitability of roadsides as grassland corridors and increase the availability of seeds for long-distance human-mediated dispersal via cars and tractors. Our results suggest that in many rural landscapes, connectivity by road networks could help mediate habitat loss and fragmentation of grasslands. However, such effects can be context dependent, and the connectivity provided by roads could have serious negative consequences in other regions.

It is very common that only presence data are available in ecological niche modeling. However, most existing methods for evaluating the accuracy of presence–absence (binary) predictions of species require presence–absence data. The aim of this study is to present a new method for accuracy assessment that does not rely on absence data.

Trait variation across species plays a fundamental role in ecology and evolution, but quantitative analyses of key life-history traits under natural conditions generally do not include a large number of species. In a comparative study, we analyzed interspecific variation in adult age as a minimum estimate of the lifespan of 708 vascular plant species along elevational gradients from 263–3175 m a.s.l. and compared this variation with predictions from r-K selection theory and the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE). Age data based on annual ring counts of root collars and rhizomes were combined with a systematic sample of current species distributions in Switzerland (453 plots, each 1 km²). Elevation and temperature trends were investigated by regression analyses of the variation in adult age across species and species assemblages (median adult age) at the landscape level. We included climate, land use and geology as environmental predictors in multiple regressions and considered phylogeny by eigenvector filtering. We found a general increase in adult age towards higher elevations at the level of overall interspecific variation, and this trend was also detectable within individual plant families. Species generally had a shorter lifespan under warmer climates and, in agreement with r-K prediction, in lowland agricultural landscapes. We found an exponential adult age–temperature relationship that is consistent with MTE. The estimate of the MTE parameter ‘activation energy’ for median adult age in multiple regression was 0.65 eV (95% CI 0.62–0.69 eV) which coincided with the predicted range of 0.60–0.70 eV. Our results imply that climate warming could accelerate species turnover rates by favoring short-lived species over the whole range of life histories and species assemblages. Besides the strong temperature relationship, residual variability and confounding factors demonstrate the need for additional research about interactions between broad-scale constraints and more local drivers of life-history variation.

Latitudinal patterns in biotic interactions, including herbivory, have been widely debated during the past years. In particular, recent meta-analysis questioned the hypothesis that herbivory increases from the poles towards the equator. Our study was designed to verify this hypothesis by exploring latitudinal patterns in abundance and diversity of birch-feeding insect herbivores belonging to the leafminer guild in northern Europe, from 59° to 69°N. We collected branches from five mature trees of two birch species (Betula pendula and B. pubescens) at each study site (ten sites for each of five latitudinal gradients) twice per season (in early and late summer of 2008–2011) and attributed all mines found on leaves of these branches to a certain taxon of insects. Latitudinal patterns were quantified by calculating Spearman rank correlation coefficients between both abundance and diversity of leafmining taxa and latitudes of sampling sites. In general, both abundance and diversity of leafminers significantly decreased with latitude. However, we discovered pronounced variation in patterns of latitudinal changes among study years and leafminer taxa. Variation among study years was best explained by mean temperatures in July at the northern ends of our gradients. During cold years, abundance of leafminers significantly decreased with latitude, while during warm years the abundance was either independent of latitude or even increased towards the pole. In the northern boreal forests (66° to 69°N), herbivores demonstrated larger changes in densities in response to temperature variations than in the boreo-nemoral forests (59° to 62°N). Our data suggest that climate warming will result in a stronger increase in herbivory at higher latitudes than at lower latitudes.

Abrupt range limits of parapatric species may serve as a model system to understand the factors that determine species’ range borders. Theory suggests that parapatric range limits can be caused by abiotic conditions along environmental gradients, biotic interactions or a combination of both. Geographic ranges of the parapatric salamanders, Salamandra salamandra and S. atra, meet in small contact zones in the European Alps and to date, the cause of parapatry and the restricted range of S. atra remain elusive. We combine multivariate approaches and climatic data analysis to explore niche differentiation among the two salamanders with respect to the available climatic environment at their contact zones. Our purpose is to evaluate whether climatic conditions explain the species’ sharp range limits or if biotic interactions may play a role for range delimitation. Analyses were carried out in three contact zones in Switzerland to assess possible geographic variation. Our results indicate that both species occur at localities with different climatic conditions as well as the presence of a strong climatic gradient across the species’ range limits. Although the species’ climatic niches differ moderately (with a wider niche breadth for S. atra), interspecific niche overlap is found. Comparisons among the contact zones confirm geographic variation in the species’ climatic niches as well as in the conditions within the geographically available space. Our results suggest that the change in climatic conditions along the recognized gradient represents a determining factor for species’ range limits within contact zones. However, our analyses of geographic variation in climatic conditions reveal that both salamander species can occur in a much wider range of conditions than observed within contact zones. This finding and the interspecific climatic niche overlap within each contact zone provides indirect evidence that biotic interactions (likely competition) between the two species may also determine their range limits.

Species’ dispersal abilities have been considered a major driving force in establishment and maintenance of large range sizes. However, recent studies question the general validity of this relationship because the relationship between dispersal ability and range size might in some cases be less important than species phylogeny or local spatial attributes. In this study we used the water beetle Graphoderus bilineatus a philopatric species of conservation concern in Europe as a model to explain large range size and to support effective conservation measures for such species that also have limited dispersal. We recorded the presence/absence of G. bilineatus and measured 14 habitat and 20 landscape variables at 228 localities in Estonia, Poland and Sweden within the core range of the species. Using information theory and average multivariate logistic regression models we determined that presence of G. bilineatus depended on landscape connectivity, distance to a possible source habitat, and stability of the site; however, specificity of habitat characteristics was not vital for the species. We reason that the large range of G. bilineatus is best explained by the historical combination of lakes, river systems and wetlands which used to be highly connected throughout the central plains of Europe. Our data suggest that a broad habitat niche can prevent landscape elements from becoming barriers for species like G. bilineatus. Therefore, we question the usefulness of site protection as conservation measures for G. bilineatus and similar philopatric species. Instead, conservation actions should be focused at the landscape level to ensure a long-term viability of such species across their range.

Understanding the regional dynamics of plant communities is crucial for predicting the response of plant diversity to habitat fragmentation. However, for fragmented landscapes the importance of regional processes, such as seed dispersal among isolated habitat patches, has been controversially debated. Due to the stochasticity and rarity of among-patch dispersal and colonization events, we still lack a quantitative understanding of the consequences of these processes at the landscape-scale.

Body size is among the most important biological variables but despite much measurement of this trait, the factors driving its variation are not fully understood. Here, I describe variation in body size in the damselfly Calopteryx maculata to establish whether variations in growth and development observed in response to experimental manipulation of temperature and time stress in the laboratory can be scaled-up to variation among natural populations. Nine hundred and seven specimens of C. maculata males were collected from 34 sites across the species’ entire range in North America during the summer of 2010. A general measure of body size was derived from a series of wing and leg measurements. I compare the fit of models based on latitude (Bergmann’s rule), temperature (the temperature–size rule) and seasonal effects (a combination of temperature and time stress) using Akaike’s information criterion (AIC). The U-shaped relationship between size and latitude was best explained by a seasonality model containing both photoperiod and temperature. The presence of both these terms suggests that time stress dominates in the southern part of the range, reducing body size by accelerating development. However, the temperature–size rule dominates in the northern part of the range, increasing body size closer to the northern range margin. The best-fit model of geographic variation in size is in accordance with previous laboratory studies of temperature and photoperiod in damselflies and theoretical work, indicating that the findings from such studies can be applied to natural populations. These findings are likely applicable to any species with complex life histories inhabiting seasonal environments.

Species distribution models (SDMs) link species occurrences to environmental descriptors using species and environmental data that are often recorded at different grain sizes. The upscaling process implied by grain size matching between species data and environmental data may affect the observed species distribution and thus might also modify the SDM-derived species distribution. Here we used five virtual species with differing range sizes to determine the effects of grain size on SDM-derived distribution area. We showed that the increase of SDM-derived distribution area with grain size is mainly due to the geometric increase of the area of the observed distribution range used to build the SDMs. Models based on presence–absence data that were built using the initial prevalence in the calibration dataset and the maximization of TSS or Kappa as cut-off threshold accurately predicted the observed area whatever the grain size and species range size. In addition we found that the commonly used evaluation measures (AUC, TSS and Kappa) cannot be used to evaluate the accuracy of SDM-derived distribution areas. Thus, the grain size of the data used to feed SDMs has to be chosen carefully, depending on the data quality and the goals of the study.

Biogeographical systems can be analyzed as networks of species and geographical units. Within such a biogeographical network, individual species may differ fundamentally in their linkage pattern, and therefore hold different topological roles. To advance our understanding of the relationship between species traits and large-scale species distribution patterns in archipelagos, we use a network approach to classify birds as one of four biogeographical species roles: peripherals, connectors, module hubs, and network hubs. These roles are based upon the position of species within the modular network of islands and species in Wallacea and the West Indies. We test whether species traits – including habitat requirements, altitudinal range-span, feeding guild, trophic level, and body length – correlate with species roles. In both archipelagos, habitat requirements, altitudinal range-span and body length show strong relations to species roles. In particular, species that occupy coastal- and open habitats, as well as habitat generalists, show higher proportions of connectors and network hubs and thus tend to span several biogeographical modules (i.e. subregions). Likewise, large body size and a wide altitudinal range-span are related to a wide distribution on many islands and across several biogeographical modules. On the other hand, species restricted to interior forest are mainly characterized as peripherals and, thus, have narrow and localized distributions within biogeographical modules rather than across the archipelago-wide network. These results suggest that the ecological amplitude of a species is highly related to its geographical distribution within and across bio geographical subregions and furthermore supports the idea that large-scale species distributions relate to distributions at the local community level. We finally discuss how our biogeographical species roles may correspond to the stages of the taxon cycle and other prominent theories of species assembly.

Species specific colonization abilities and biotic and abiotic filters influence the local and regional faunal composition along colonization trajectories. Using a recent compilation of the occurrences of 1373 darkling beetle (Tenebrionidae) species and subspecies in 49 European countries and major islands, we reconstructed the tenebrionid postglacial colonization of middle and northern Europe from southern European glacial refuges and linked species composition to latitudinal and longitudinal gradients in phylogenetic relatedness across Europe. The majority of European islands and mainland countries appeared to be phylogenetically clustered. We did not find significant latitudinal trends in average phylogenetic relatedness of regional faunas along the supposed postglacial colonization routes but detected a strong positive correlation between mean relatedness and longitude of mainland faunas and an opposite negative correlation for island faunas. The strength of phylogenetic relatedness in the regional tenebrionid faunas decreased significantly with latitude and to a lesser degree with longitude. These findings are in accordance with two trajectories of postglacial colonization from centres in Spain and middle Asia that caused a strong longitudinal trend in the phylogenetic relatedness. Subsequent pair-wise analyses of species co-occurrences showed that species of similar distributional ranges tend to be phylogenetically clustered and species of different spatial distribution to be phylogenetically segregated. Both findings are in accordance with the concept of ‘range size heritability’. Our study demonstrates that taxonomic data are sufficiently powerful to infer continental wide patterns in phylogenetic relatedness that can be linked to colonization history and geographic information.

We examined assemblages of trees and two major groups of vertebrate seed dispersers, birds and primates, in Ugandan protected areas to evaluate the roles of dispersal limitation and species sorting in community assembly. We conducted partial Mantel tests to investigate relationships between community similarity, environmental distance and geographic distance. Results showed that environmental factors, specifically temperature and rainfall, significantly and more strongly structured tree assemblages than geographic distance. Analysis of tree dispersal modes revealed wind-dispersed tree guilds were significantly dispersal limited but trees dispersed by animals were not. For assemblages of vertebrate seed dispersers, dispersal limitation significantly and more strongly structured assemblages of primates than species sorting whereas environmental factors significantly and more strongly structured assemblages of birds than dispersal limitation. We therefore examined whether trees dispersed by primates were more dispersal limited than trees dispersed by birds. We found consistent trends that primate fruit trees were more dispersal limited than bird fruit trees using three definitions of dispersal syndromes based on fruit color. Our results suggest that the dispersal abilities of primary consumers may affect the distribution of primary producers at large spatial scales.

The idea that groups of individuals may develop around resource patches led to the formulation of the Resource Dispersion Hypothesis (RDH). We tested the predictions of the RDH, within a quasi-experimental framework, using Australia’s largest terrestrial predator, the dingo Canis lupus dingo. Average dingo group sizes were higher in areas with abundant focal food sources around two mine sites compared with those in more distant areas. This supports the notion that resource richness favours larger group size, consistent with the RDH. Irrespective of season or sex, average home range estimates and daily activity for dingoes around the mine sites were significantly less than for dingoes that lived well away. Assuming that a territory is the defended part of the home range and that territory size is correlated with home range size, consistent with the RDH, the spatial dispersion of food patches therefore determined territory size for dingoes in our study. However, although sample size was small, some dingoes that accessed the supplementary food resource at the mines also spent a large proportion of their time away, suggesting a breakdown of territorial defence around the focal food resource. This, in combination with the large variation in home range size among dingoes that accessed the same supplementary food resource, limits the predictive capabilities of the RDH for this species. We hypothesize that constraints on exclusive home range occupancy will arise if a surfeit of food resources (in excess of requirements for homeostasis) is available in a small area, and that this will have further effects on access to mates and social structure. We present a conceptual model of facultative territorial defence where focal resources are available to demonstrate our findings.

Dispersal is a key process for the population dynamics of spatially structured populations (at local and metapopulation levels), so the understanding of the mechanisms underlying the movement of individuals in space and time is important for evolutionary and ecological studies. Here we analyzed, for the first time, a long-term (1992–2009) multi-site capture– recapture database collected at four local populations of a long-lived seabird, the Audouin’s gull Larus audouinii, covering 90% of its total world population. Those local populations show different ecological and demographic features that allow us to assess the influence of several key factors involved in breeding dispersal patterns at large spatio-temporal scales. A recently developed analytical tool in mark–recapture modelling, the multi-event approach, allowed us to obtain separate departure and settlement probabilities and test different biological hypotheses for each step of the dispersal process. Our results revealed that site fidelity was the most common strategy among breeders, and dispersal was only high from the site with the lowest population size and habitat quality. However, departures from the two largest local populations increased over the study period in response to severe ecological perturbations. Dispersers chose different settlement patches depending on their site of origin, with settlement choices determined by the population size of the destination colony rather than by the local reproductive performance, foraging area (a proxy of food availability) or distance to the destination site. Our results indicate that a breeding site is not abandoned by breeders unless a series of cumulative perturbations occur; once dispersing, settlement is directed towards densely populated sites, with dispersers using population size to rapidly assess the quality of the breeding patch.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly applied to predict species’ responses to anticipated global change, but lack of data from future time periods precludes assessment of their reliability. Instead, performance against test data in the same era is assumed to correlate with accuracy in the future. Moreover, high-confidence absence data is required for testing model accuracy but is often unavailable since a species may be present when undetected. Here we evaluate the performance of eight SDMs trained with historic (1900–1939) or modern (1970–2009) climate data and occurrence records for 18 mammalian species. Models were projected to the same or the opposing time period and evaluated with data obtained from surveys conducted by Joseph Grinnell and his colleagues in the Sierra Nevada of California from 1900 to 1939 and modern resurveys from 2003 to 2011. Occupancy modeling was used to confidently assign absences at test sites where species were undetected. SDMs were evaluated using species’ presences combined with this high-confidence absence (HCA) set, a low-confidence set in which non-detections were assumed to indicate absence (LCA), and randomly located ‘pseudoabsences’ (PSA). Model performance increased significantly with the quality of absences (mean AUC ± SE: 0.76 ± 0.01 for PSA, 0.79 ± 0.01 for LCA, and 0.81 ± 0.01 for HCA), and apparent differences between SDMs declined as the quality of test absences increased. Models projecting across time performed as well as when projecting within the same time period when assessed with threshold-independent metrics. However, accuracy of presence and absence predictions sometimes declined in cross-era projections. Although most variation in performance occurred among species, autecological traits were only weakly correlated with model accuracy. Our study indicates that a) the quality of evaluation data affects assessments of model performance; b) within-era performance correlates positively but unreliably with cross-era performance; and c) SDMs can be reliably but cautiously projected across time.

Invasive plants pose substantial threats to protected areas globally. Although management can limit impacts, spread and reinvasion from neighbouring areas into protected areas are a major and an on-going problem for land managers. However, identifying the main sources of propagules and the dimensions of invasion pathways is challenging. This study used population genetic markers [inter simple sequence repeats (ISSRs) and amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs)] to infer the source(s) of re-colonization and dispersal patterns for a typical invader of riparian and terrestrial habitats (Lantana camara) along the Sabie-Sand catchment, one of the most important river systems flowing into and across South Africa’s flagship protected area, the Kruger National Park (KNP). Results indicate that populations located along the lower reaches of the Sabie and Sand tributaries harboured substantially higher genetic diversity than those in the upper Sabie catchment. Bayesian assignments indicated that the upper Sabie tributary contributed far fewer propagules than the Sand tributary to the lower Sabie River. Current invasion patterns are due to a combination of a major flood event in 2000 and differences in the degree to which the upstream reaches were managed after the flooding. The major flood of 2000 effectively cleared lantana from the riparian areas. However, whereas on-going management efforts against riparian species in the KNP have been effective, rendering the upper Sabie relatively clear of lantana, only a small part of the Sand tributary falls under jurisdiction of the KNP and has received consistent management attention. The reinvasion of the lower Sabie in the KNP was therefore almost entirely by propagules from the Sand tributary. The study highlights the important role that molecular tools can play in determining dispersal dynamics and directing invasive species management. For invasive plant species that invade both riparian habitats and landscapes away from rivers in protected areas, such as lantana, management must focus on all major sources of propagules to limit reinvasion.

Despite intensive research, the factors driving spatial patterns in life-history traits remain poorly understood. One of the most frequently documented, and paradoxically, least understood patterns, is the latitudinal gradient of increasing avian clutch size at higher latitudes. These gradients are less marked in the southern hemisphere, thus clutch sizes tend to be smaller at southern latitudes than at equivalent northern ones. We exploited a natural experiment provided by the introduction of European passerines to New Zealand (NZ) to test three widely proposed ecological drivers of this pattern, i.e. the nest predation, Ashmole’s seasonality, and the breeding density hypotheses. We focus on the blackbird Turdus merula and the song thrush T. philomelos as founder effects do not have a major influence on the reproductive traits of their introduced populations. Both species laid smaller clutches in NZ than in Europe. These reductions had stabilised within one hundred years and were not associated with a compensatory increase in investment in individual offspring by laying larger eggs. In contrast to the nest predation hypothesis, daily nest predation rates were lower in NZ than in Europe. Smaller southern hemisphere clutches were associated with higher conspecific population densities and a relaxation of seasonal clutch size trends. These findings thus provide some support for both Ashmole’s seasonality and the breeding density hypotheses. Analyses across 11 European passerines introduced to NZ suggest, however, that neither of these hypotheses provide general explanations of smaller clutches in the southern hemisphere. We suggest that reduced seasonality and lower nest predation promote increased breeding densities and adult survival in the southern hemisphere. The later may drive smaller southern clutch sizes by generating spatial variation in the outcome of the trade-off between reproductive investment and longevity.

Metacommunity theory has advanced our understanding of how local and regional processes affect the structure of ecological communities. While parasites have largely been omitted from metacommunity research, parasite communities can provide the large sample sizes and discrete boundaries often required for evaluating metacommunity patterns. Here, we used assemblages of flatworm parasites that infect freshwater snails (Helisoma trivolvis) to evaluate three questions: 1) what factors affect individual host infections within ponds? 2) Is the parasite metacommunity structured among ponds? And 3) what is the relative role of local versus regional processes in determining metacommunity structure and species richness among ponds? We examined 10 821 snails from 96 sites in five park complexes in the San Francisco Bay area, California, and found 953 infections from six parasite groups. At the within-pond level, infection status of host snails correlated positively with individual snail size and pond infection prevalence for all six parasite groups. Using an ordination method to test for metacommunity structure, we found that the parasite metacommunity was organized in a non-random pattern with species responding individually along an environmental gradient. Based on a model selection approach involving local and regional predictors, parasite species richness and metacommunity structure correlated with both local abiotic (pH and total dissolved nitrogen) and biotic (non-host mollusk density, and H. trivolvis biomass) factors, with little support for regional predictors. Overall, this trematode metacommunity most closely followed the predictions from the species sorting or mass effects metacommunity paradigm, in which community diversity is filtered by local site characteristics.

Recent climate warming in the Arctic has caused advancement in the timing of snowmelt and expansion of shrubs into open tundra. Such an altered climate may directly and indirectly (via effects on vegetation) affect arctic arthropod abundance, diversity and assemblage taxonomic composition. To allow better predictions about how climate changes may affect these organisms, we compared arthropod assemblages between open and shrub-dominated tundra at three field sites in northern Alaska that encompass a range of shrub communities. Over ten weeks of sampling in 2011, pitfall traps captured significantly more arthropods in shrub plots than open tundra plots at two of the three sites. Furthermore, taxonomic richness and diversity were significantly greater in shrub plots than open tundra plots, although this pattern was site-specific as well. Patterns of abundance within the five most abundant arthropod orders differed, with spiders (Order: Araneae) more abundant in open tundra habitats and true bugs (Order: Hemiptera), flies (Order: Diptera), and wasps and bees (Order: Hymenoptera) more abundant in shrub-dominated habitats. Few strong relationships were found between vegetation and environmental variables and arthropod abundance; however, lichen cover seemed to be important for the overall abundance of arthropods. Some arthropod orders showed significant relationships with other vegetation variables, including maximum shrub height (Coleoptera) and foliar canopy cover (Diptera). As climate warming continues over the coming decades, and with further shrub expansion likely to occur, changes in arthropod abundance, richness, and diversity associated with shrub-dominated habitat may have important ecological effects on arctic food webs since arthropods play important ecological roles in the tundra, including in decomposition and trophic interactions.

The spatial distributions of species, and the resulting composition of local communities, are shaped by a complex interplay between species’ climatic and habitat preferences. We investigated this interaction by analyzing how the climatic niches of bird species within given communities (measured as a community thermal index, CTI) are related to vegetation structure. Using 3129 bird communities from the French Breeding Bird Survey and an information theoretic multimodel inference framework, we assessed patterns of CTI variation along landscape scale gradients of forest cover and configuration. We then tested whether the CTI varies along local scale gradients of forest structure and composition using a detailed data set of 659 communities from six forests located in northwestern France. At landscape scale, CTI values decreased with increasing forest cover, indicating that bird communities were increasingly dominated by cold-dwelling species. This tendency was strongest at low latitudes and in landscapes dominated by unfragmented forest. At local scale, CTI values were higher in mature deciduous stands than in conifer or early stage deciduous stands, and they decreased consistently with distance from the edge of forest. These trends underpin the assertion that species’ habitat use along forest gradients is linked with their climatic niche, although it remains unclear to what extent it is a direct consequence of microclimatic variation among habitats, or a reflection of macroscale correlations between species’ thermal preferences and their habitat choice. Moreover, our results highlight the need to address issues of scale in determining how habitat and climate interact to drive the spatial distribution of species. This will be a crucial step towards accurate predictions of changes in the composition and dynamics of bird communities under global warming.

Phylogenetic diversity (PD, the diversity of lineages) and functional diversity (FD, the diversity of functional traits or groups in a biological community) reflect important yet poorly understood attributes of species assemblages. Until recently, few studies have examined the spatial variation of PD and FD in natural communities. Yet the relationships between PD and FD and area (termed PDAR and FDAR), like the analogous species–area relationship (SAR), have received less attention and may provide insights into the mechanisms that shape the composition and dynamics of ecological communities. In this study, we used four spatial point process models to evaluate the likely roles of the random placement of species, habitat filtering, dispersal limitation, and the combined effects of habitat filtering and dispersal limitation in producing observed PDARs and FDARs in two large, fully mapped temperate forest research plots in northeast China and in north-central USA. We found that the dispersal limitation hypothesis provided a good approximation of the accumulation of PD and FD with increasing area, as it did for the species area curves. PDAR and FDAR patterns were highly correlated with the SAR. We interpret this as evidence that species interactions, which are often influenced by phylogenetic and functional similarity, may be relatively unimportant in structuring temperate forest tree assemblages at this scale. However, the scale-dependent departures of the PDAR and FDAR that emerged for the dispersal limitation hypothesis agree with operation of competitive exclusion at small scales and habitat filtering at larger scales. Our analysis illustrates how emergent community patterns in fully mapped temperate forest plots can be influenced by multiple underlying processes at different spatial scales.

Interaction networks within biotic communities can be dramatically altered by anthropogenic habitat modification. Ants, an important ecological group, often interact competitively to form mosaic-like patterns in disturbed plantation habitats, in which dominant species form mutually exclusive territories. However, the existence of these ant mosaics in pristine forests is contentious. Here we assess the relative strengths of ant competitive interactions in oil palm plantation and primary rain forest in Sabah, Malaysia, using null models of species co-occurrence. We use two metrics: the C-score, which measures mean degree of overall co-occurrence, and a novel metric, the C_var-score, which measures the variance in degree of co-occurrence. We also investigate the role of nest sites by collecting ants from canopy and leaf litter microhabitats, and from epiphytic ferns, an important nest site for canopy ants. Furthermore, we assess whether non-native species, which were widespread in oil palm plantation (61 occurrences vs five in rain forest) are important in driving the formation of ant mosaics. We found no evidence for ant mosaics in any primary forest microhabitat. In oil palm plantation, segregation between species was pronounced in epiphytes, weak in the rest of the canopy and absent in leaf litter communities. Intriguingly, exclusion of non-native ant species from analyses increased the degree of negative species co-occurrence in all three microhabitats, with species segregation in the oil palm canopy becoming statistically significant. Our results suggest that invasion of plantation habitats by non-native species does not drive increased species segregation in ant communities. Rather, high degrees of species segregation might relate to changes in the importance of canopy nest sites, with colonies competing more strongly for these in plantations. In primary forests, weaker nest-site limitation and the highly complex, more vertically stratified, non-uniform canopy could lead to random co-occurrence between ant species at the scales studied here.

To investigate potential range shifts in a changing climate it is becoming increasingly common to develop models that account for demographic processes. Metapopulation models incorporate the spatial configuration of occupied habitat (i.e. arrangement, size and quality), population demographics, and inter-patch dispersal making them suitable for investigating potential threats to small mammal range and abundance. However, the spatial scale (resolution) used to represent species–environment dynamics may affect estimates of range shift and population resilience by failing to realistically represent the spatial configuration of suitable habitat, including stepping stones and refugia. We aimed to determine whether relatively fine-scale environmental information influenced predictions of metapopulation persistence and range shift. Species distribution models were constructed for four small terrestrial mammals from southern Australia using environmental predictors measured at 0.1 × 0.1 km (0.01 km²) or 1.0 × 1.0 km (1 km²) resolution, and combined with demographic information to parameterise coupled niche-population models. These models were used to simulate population dynamics projected over 40-yr under a stable and changing climate. Initial estimates of the area of available habitat were similar at both spatial scales. However, at the fine-scale, habitat configuration comprised a greater number of patches (ca 12 times), that were more irregular in shape (ca 8 times the perimeter:area), and separated by a tenth of the distance than at the coarse-scale. While small patches were not more prone to extinction, populations generally declined at a higher rate and were associated with a lower expected minimum abundance. Despite increased species vulnerability at the fine-scale, greater range shifts were measured at the coarse-scale (for species illustrating a shift at both scales). These results highlight the potential for range shifts and species vulnerability information to be misrepresented if advanced modelling techniques incorporating species demographics and dispersal inadequately represent the scale at which these processes occur.

Landscape change may reduce the connectivity of landscapes and impact the movement of animals. If movement processes have been influenced by landscape connectivity, we hypothesize that animals may distribute themselves in larger connected regions of the landscape in order to minimize the movement costs associated with obtaining required resources and avoiding predators. We adopt the term functional grain to describe a set of functionally connected regions. In this spatial pattern, each region describes a contiguous area of the landscape within which an animal may move freely below a threshold amount of movement cost. We used telemetry data from woodland caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou to test hypothetical functional grains where connectivity was determined by the spatial configuration of resource patches (patch only), by the resistance to movement presented by landscape features (resistance only), and by a combination of the two (patch + resistance). To identify these functional grains, we used a grains of connectivity approach, and introduced a novel lattice-based variant of this method to build the resistance only model. We developed a measure of fit that describes caribou distribution with respect to larger functionally connected regions in the grain, and used this to ask: 1) are seasonal caribou locations consistent with a random functional grain, implying that landscape connectivity has not shaped their distribution? 2) Given a functional grain model, are seasonal caribou locations distributed in larger functionally connected regions than random points, implying a response to the shape, size, and location of the connected regions. We found support for landscape connectivity influencing animal distribution using grains based on a landscape resistance model, and that support varied between behaviourally defined seasons. We also discuss how our novel lattice approach may be valuable for highly mobile mammals and other species where the identification of resource patches is a limitation.

Disturbances related to geomorphological processes are frequent, widespread and often intense at high latitudes and altitudes, affecting the fine-scale distribution of many plant species. While the inclusion of physical disturbances into models of species geographic ranges is widely recommended, no studies have yet tested the utility of field-quantified geomorphological disturbances for terrestrial species distribution modelling. Here we apply generalized additive models and boosted regression trees to examine if the explicit inclusion of terrestrial and fluvial geomorphological variables alters species distribution models for 154 vascular plant, bryophyte and lichen species in north European mountain tundra. The inclusion of these disturbances significantly improved both the explanatory and predictive power of distribution models, with consistent results for all three species groups. Spatial distribution predictions changed considerably for some species after the inclusion of disturbance variables, with fluvial disturbances generating strongly linear features for species influenced by erosion or sediment deposition. As a consequence, models incorporating geomorphological variables produced markedly more refined distribution maps than simpler models. Predictions of species distributions will thus benefit strongly from the inclusion of fine-scale geomorphological variables, particularly in areas of active earth surface processes, enabling more accurate forecasting of future species ranges under changing conditions.

Landscape heterogeneity, namely the variation of a landscape property across space and time, can influence the distribution of a species and its abundance. Quantifying landscape heterogeneity is important for the management of semi-natural areas through predicting species response to landscape changes, such as habitat fragmentation. In this paper, we tested whether the change in spatial heterogeneity of the vegetation cover due to farming expansion affected the distribution of the African elephant in the Tarangire-Manyara ecosystem, northern Tanzania. Spatial heterogeneity (based on the normalized difference vegetation index) was characterized at multiple spatial scales using the wavelet transform and the intensity-dominant scale method. Elephant distribution was estimated from time-series aerial surveys using a kernel density function. The intensity, which relates to the contrast in vegetation cover, quantified the maximum variation in NDVI across multiple spatial scales, whereas the dominant scale, which represents the scale at which this maximum variation occurs, identified the dominant inter-patches distance, i.e. the size of dominant landscape features. We related the dominant scale of spatial heterogeneity to the probability of elephant occurrence in order to identify: 1) the scale that maximizes elephant occurrence, and 2) its change between 1988 and 2001. Neither the dominant scale and intensity of spatial heterogeneity, nor the probability of the elephant occurrence changed significantly between 1988 and 2001. The spatial scale maximizing elephant occurrence remained constant at 7000 to 8000 m during each wet season. Compared to the findings of a recent, similar study in Zimbabwe, our results suggest that the change in the dominant scale was relatively small in Tarangire-Manyara ecosystem and well within the critical threshold for elephant persistence. The method is a useful tool for monitoring ecosystems and their properties.

Bioclimate envelope models (BEMs) have often been criticized as being too simplistic due to e.g. not incorporating effects of biotic interactions or evolutionary adaptation. However, BEMs are widely applied and have proven to be often useful. Here we investigate, under which conditions evolution of dispersal, local adaptation or interspecific competition may be of minor importance for forecasting future range shifts. Therefore we use individual-based simulations of metapopulations under climate change living in spatial temperature gradients. Scenarios incorporate single-species systems or systems with competing species, respectively. Dispersal rate is evolving and adaptation to local conditions may also evolve in some scenarios. Results show that in single-species scenarios excluding evolutionary adaptation, species either follow optimal habitat conditions or go extinct if habitat connectivity is too low. These simulations are in close accordance to predictions from BEMs. Including evolutionary adaptation qualitatively changes these results. In the absence of competing species the species either completely invades the world or goes extinct. With competitors, results strongly depend on habitat fragmentation. For highly connected habitats the range border may shift as predicted by BEMs, for intermediate connectivity it will lag behind, while species will go extinct if fragmentation is too high. Our results indicate that (simple) BEMs may work well if habitats are well connected and species will not encounter many difficulties in dispersing to new sites. Selection in this case may promote evolution of even higher dispersal activities. We thus show that the presence of biotic interactions may be ignored for predictions of range shifts when high dispersal can be expected.

Null model analyses have greatly improved our understanding of species co-occurrence. Null model analyses have shown, for example, that cold-blooded animals show less segregated distributions than warm-blooded animals. This topic has rarely been studied simultaneously across multiple metacommunities. We analysed data on 10 stream metacommunities (with 10 communities in each metacommunity) of a cold-blooded animal group, benthic macroinvertebrates, and examined co-occurrence within five ecological guilds. We found that the segregated species co-occurrence was not the rule in stream invertebrate guilds. This was evidenced by the finding that only 10% of the 50 guild matrices we analyzed showed significant segregation and no matrices showed significant aggregation in the within-stream analyses. However, in the across-streams analysis, all guilds showed significant segregation. We neither found differences in the degree of segregation among the guilds, the degree of species segregation did not increase with overall environmental heterogeneity, and there were no differences in the relationships between species segregation and overall environmental heterogeneity among the guilds. Expanding the spatial extent from single stream metacommunities (i.e. within each stream) to the whole study region (i.e. across the streams) increased significantly segregation in all guilds. Because environmental heterogeneity across streams was much higher than within single streams, overall environmental heterogeneity may nevertheless have effects on species segregation. It also seems that the effects of overall heterogeneity on species segregation were masked by mass effects in the within-stream analyses.

Arctic ecosystems are fragile, and are particularly sensitive to the pressures of climate change. Both average temperature and precipitation have increased over the past five decades on Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada in the high Arctic. Altered growth forms and increased biomass in dominant plant species on Ellesmere Island have been observed concurrent with the changing climate, but shifts in the diversity or rank abundance of plant and bird species have not been detected. Changes in diversity may take longer to appear, or may be assessed better using organisms with shorter generation times such as insects. We explored the ecological impacts of climate change on Ellesmere Island using historical and contemporary communities of ichneumonid wasps. We compared community diversity, functional composition, and body size of two common species using ichneumonid specimens collected in 1961–1965, 1980–1982, 1989–1992, and 2010. We found high compositional similarity between collections, overlapping estimates of species richness, no change in the proportion of idiobiont genera in the community, and no clear pattern in body size over time. The greatest amount of variation over time was detected in parasitoids of herbivores; proportionally fewer herbivore-parasitizing genera were found in 2010 than in historical collections, and the two genera that were only found in one of the four collections were both parasitoids of herbivores. Our results point to the need to assess climate change effects in Arctic systems using a range of taxa, and responses to large-scale environmental disturbances may be idiosyncratic and difficult to predict.

We studied ecological correlates of body size (abundance and niche breadth) in gamasid mites parasitic on small mammals in 28 regions of the Palearctic. We predicted that smaller species would be characterized by higher abundance than larger species, all else (e.g. host species) being equal. We also predicted that host specificity of mites would decrease (that is, number of host species they use would increase) with an increase in their body size. We focused on mites collected from host bodies that include a) species that feed solely on host’s blood (obligate exclusive haematophages), b) species that feed on both host’s blood and small arthropods (obligate non-exclusive haematophages), and c) facultative haematophages. We expected that the relationship between body size and abundance and/or host specificity would be more pronounced in obligate exclusively haematophagous mites than for obligate non-exclusively and facultative haematophagous mites. Across all mite species across regions, mean abundance correlated negatively with body size. The same was true for obligate haematophagous species, but not for facultative haematophages. When mite communities on the same host in a location were considered, the negative body mass–abundance relationship was found in only 3 of 44 communities. Nevertheless, a meta-analytic (across host species) estimate of the slope of this relationship appeared to be significantly negative. No significant relationship between mite body size and host specificity was found in the analyses across all mite species as well as in obligate exclusive or obligate non-exclusive haematophages. However, the number of hosts used by facultative haematophagous mites decreased significantly with an increase in their body size. We explain the relationships between morphological (body size) and ecological (abundance and niche breadth) properties of ectoparasites by their interactions with hosts or physical environment.

The general dynamic model of oceanic island biogeography describes the evolution of species diversity properties, including species richness (SR), through time. We investigate the hypothesis that SR in organisms with high dispersal capacities is better predicted by island area and elevation (as a surrogate of habitat diversity) than by time elapsed since island emergence and geographic isolation. Linear mixed effect models (LMMs) subjected to information theoretic model selection were employed to describe moss and liverwort SR patterns from 67 oceanic islands across 12 archipelagos. Random effects, which are used to modulate model parameters to take differences among archipelagos into account, included only a random intercept in the best-fit model for liverworts and in one of the two best-fit models for mosses. In this case, the other coefficients are constant across archipelagos, and we interpret the intercept as a measure of the intrinsic carrying capacity of islands within each archipelago, independently of their size, age, elevation and geographic isolation. The contribution of area and elevation to the models was substantially higher than that of time, with the least contribution made by measures of geographic isolation. This reinforces the idea that oceanic barriers are not a major impediment for migration in bryophytes and, together with the almost complete absence of in situ insular diversification, explains the comparatively limited importance of time in the models. We hence suggest that time per se has little independent role in explaining bryophyte SR and principally features as a variable accounting for the changing area and topographic complexity during the life-cycle of oceanic islands. Simple area models reflecting habitat availability and diversity might hence prevail over more complex temporal models reflecting in-situ speciation and dispersal (time, geographic connectivity) in explaining patterns of biodiversity for exceptionally mobile organisms.

Amphibians are declining at alarming rates worldwide; however, the causes of these declines remain somewhat elusive. Here we evaluated three major threats implicated in declines of populations and disappearance of Ecuadorian amphibians: chytridiomicosis, climate change, and habitat loss. We assessed spatial patterns of these key threats to Ecuadorian amphibians using a multi-species database of endemic frogs along with information on the pathogen's distribution and environmental requirements, species sensitivity to climate change (indirectly based on species geographical distribution and ecological properties) and habitat loss. Our results show that amphibians display a non-random pattern of extinction risk, both geographically and taxonomically. Further, climate change, chytridiomicosis, and their synergetic effects, are likely currently exerting the greatest impact on amphibians in Ecuador, while habitat loss does not seem to be causing precipitous declines. The most threatened species under the IUCN extinction risk categories are exactly those that appear to be the most affected by these threats. By examining multiple potential causes of amphibian threat level in a spatially explicit framework our study provides new insights about what combination of factors are most important in amphibian declines in a tropical diversity hotspot. Further, our approach and conclusions are useful for studying declines in other regions of the world.

Biotic interactions have been considered as an important factor to be included in species distribution modelling, but little is known about how different types of interaction or different strategies for modelling affect model performance. This study compares different methods for including interspecific interactions in distribution models for bees, their brood parasites, and the plants they pollinate. Host–parasite interactions among bumble bees (genus Bombus: generalist pollinators and brood parasites) and specialist plant–pollinator interactions between Centris bees and Krameria flowers were used as case studies. We used 7 different modelling algorithms available in the BIOMOD R package. For Bombus, the inclusion of interacting species distributions generally increased model predictive accuracy. The improvement was better when the interacting species was included with its raw distribution rather than with its modeled suitability. However, incorporating the distributions of non-interacting species sometimes resulted in similarly increased model accuracy despite their being no significance of any interaction for the distribution. For the Centris-Krameria system the best strategy for modelling biotic interactions was to include the interacting species model-predicted values. However, the results were less consistent than those for Bombus species, and most models including biotic interactions showed no significant improvement over abiotic models. Our results are consistent with previous studies showing that biotic interactions can be important in structuring species distributions at regional scales. However, correlations between species distributions are not necessarily indicative of interactions. Therefore, choosing the correct biotic information, based on biological and ecological knowledge, is critical to improve the accuracy of species distribution models and forecast distribution change.

Understanding whether and how ecological traits affect species’ geographic distributions is a fundamental issue that bridges ecology and biogeography. While climate is thought to be the major determinant of species’ distributions, there is considerable variation in the strength of species’ climate–distribution relationships. One potential explanation is that species with relatively low dispersal ability cannot reach all geographic areas where climatic conditions are suitable. We tested the hypothesis that species from different taxonomic groups varied in their climate–distribution relationships because of differences in life history strategies, in particular dispersal ability. We conducted a meta-analysis by combining the discrimination ability (AUC values) from 4317 species distribution models (SDMs) using fit as an indication of the strength of the species’ climate–distribution relationship. We found significant differences in the strength of species’ climate–distribution relationships across taxonomic groups, however we did not find support for the dispersal hypothesis. Our results suggest that relevant ecological trait variation among broad taxonomic groups may be related to differences in species’ climate–distribution relationships, however which ecological traits are important remains unclear.

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in modelling of species abundance data in addition to presence data. In this study, we assessed the similarities and differences between presence-absence distributions and abundance distributions along similar environmental gradients, derived, respectively, from presence-absence and abundance data. Moreover, we examined the possibility of using presence-absence distribution models to derive abundance distributions. For this purpose, we used Braun-Blanquet abundance scores for 243 vascular species at 10 996 French forest sites. Species distribution models were used to analyse the link between the patterns of occurrence, low abundance and high abundance for each species with regard to mean annual temperature, June water balance, and soil pH. For each species, differences in the modelled distributions were characterised by the ecological optimum and ecological amplitude. A comparison of the presence-absence and abundance distributions for all species revealed similar optima and different amplitudes along the three ecological factors. An abundant-centre distribution was observed in environmental space, with species abundance being greatest at the optimal conditions and lower at less favourable conditions of the species occurrence response. Geographical habitat mapping also shows centred, high-abundance suitability within the presence habitat of each species. We conclude that species distribution models derived from presence-absence data provide useful information about the ecological optima of abundance distributions but overestimate the range of habitats suitable for high species abundance. This study demonstrates the utility of presence-absence data for ecologist and conservation biologist when they are interested in the optimal conditions of high species abundance.

Selective logging is practiced extensively within tropical rainforests of south-east Asia, and its impact on local biodiversity is well documented. Little is known, however, about the impact of selective logging on patterns of spatial heterogeneity of species. We set out to test the hypothesis that selective logging will lead to a homogenization of the associated faunal assemblages, using moths (Lepidoptera) as our subject taxa.

Although habitat fragmentation fosters extinctions, it also increases the probability of speciation by promoting and maintaining divergence among isolated populations. Here we test for the effects of two isolation factors that may reduce population dispersal within river networks as potential drivers of freshwater fish speciation: 1) the position of subdrainages along the longitudinal river gradient, and 2) the level of fragmentation within subdrainages caused by natural waterfalls. The occurrence of native freshwater fish species from 26 subdrainages of the Orinoco drainage basin (South America) was used to identify those species that presumably arose from in-situ cladogenetic speciation (i.e. neo-endemic species; two or more endemic species from the same genus) within each subdrainage. We related subdrainages fish diversity (i.e. total, endemic and neo-endemic species richness) and an index of speciation to our two isolation factors while controlling for subdrainages size and energy availability. The longitudinal position of subdrainages was unrelated to any of our diversity measures, a result potentially explained by the spatial grain we used and/or the contemporary connection between Orinoco and Amazon basins via the upstream Casiquiare region. However, we found higher neo-endemic species richness and higher speciation index values in highly fragmented subdrainages. These results suggest that habitat fragmentation generated by natural waterfalls drives cladogenetic speciation in fragmented subdrainages. More generally, our results emphasize the role of history and natural waterfalls as biogeographic barriers promoting freshwater biodiversity in river drainage basins.

.The Amazon basin is covered by the most species-rich forests in the world and is considered to house many endemic tree species. Yet, most Amazonian ecosystems lack reliable estimates of their degree of endemism, and causes of tree diversity and endemism are intense matters of debate. We reviewed the spatial distribution of 658 of the most important flood-tolerant Amazonian white-water (várzea) tree species across the entire Neotropics by using data from herbaria, floras, inventories and checklists. Our results show that 90% of the várzea tree species are partially or widely distributed across neotropical macro-regions and biomes. Chi-square analyses indicated that várzea species richness in non-várzea macro-regions was dependent on the flooding gradient and the longitudinal position. Cluster analysis combined with association tests indicated four significant patterns of várzea species distributions depending on species flood-tolerance (low vs high) and spatial distribution (restricted vs widespread). We predict that the predominance of Andean substrates is the most important factor that determines the distribution of várzea tree species within and beyond the Amazon basin and explains the high floristic similarity to the Orinoco floodplains. Distribution patterns in other extra-Amazonian macro-regions are more likely linked to climatic factors, with rainforest climates housing more várzea species than savanna climates. 130 tree species were restricted to South-American freshwater floodplains, and 68 (> 10%) were endemic to Amazonian várzea. We detected two centers of endemism, one in the western Amazon characterized by low and brief floods, and one in the central Amazon, characterized by high and prolonged floods. Differences in taxonomic composition of endemic centers in the western and central Amazon are the result of different abiotic factors (i.e. flood regimes), as well as the regional species pools from where the species are recruited from.

Evolutionary processes are known to influence contemporary patterns of biological diversity, yet disentangling the effects of current and historical drivers of biodiversity patterns remain challenging. We use spatial analyses of community dissimilarity to generate hypotheses about the current and historical processes underlying patterns of beta diversity in anuran species in the Brazilian Cerrado. Specifically, we use a generalized dissimilarity modeling (GDM) approach to model compositional dissimilarity of anuran species and endemics as a function of geographic separation and local (within-Cerrado) environmental conditions. To gain insight about potential historical processes, we incorporate information from biomes adjacent to the Cerrado to investigate whether environmental conditions in neighboring areas can help explain patterns of beta diversity within the Cerrado. Patterns of anuran beta diversity of both endemics and all species in the Cerrado appear to be strongly influenced by local environmental gradients, with elevation as one of the most important variables in all models. However, in models using endemic species only, environmental conditions of adjacent biomes were related to beta-diversity patterns, and more strongly so, than to total species models. These results suggest that phylogenetic niche conservatism within species groups that invaded the Cerrado from adjacent biomes may cause these species to be restricted to environmental conditions within the Cerrado that are most similar to the conditions in the adjacent biome where they originated. Time-calibrated phylogenies of Cerrado endemics and studies of ancestral and current ranges of Cerrado species are needed to test this hypothesis.

Plasticity and local adaptation have been suggested as two main mechanisms that alien species use to successfully tolerate and invade broad geographic areas. In the present study, we try answer the question if the mechanism for the broad distributional range of T. officinale is for phenotypic plasticity, ecotypic adaptation or both. For this, we used individuals of T. officinale originated from seeds collected in five localities along its latitudinal distribution range in the southern-hemisphere. Seedlings were acclimated at 5 and 25°C for one month. After the acclimation period we evaluated ecophysiological and cytogenetic traits. Additionally, we assessed the fitness at each temperature by recording the seed output of individuals from different localities. Finally, we performed a manipulative experiment in order to assess the tolerance to herbivory and competitive ability between T. officinale from all origins and Hypochaeris scorzonerae a co-occurring native species. Overall, individuals of T. officinale showed high plasticity and ecotypic adaptation for all traits assessed in this study. Changes both in physiology and morphology observed in T. officinale from different origins were mostly correlated, enhancing their ecophysiological performance in temperatures similar to those of their origin. Additionally, all localities showed the same chromosome number and ploidy level. On the other hand, all individuals showed an increase the seed output at 25°C, but those from northern localities increased more. T. officinale from all origins was not significantly affected by herbivory while native showed a negative effect. On the other hand, T. officinale exerted a strong negative effect on the native species, but this former not effected significantly to the invasive T. officinale. High plasticity and local adaptation in all ecophysiological traits, seed-set and the low cytogenetic variability in T. officinale suggests that both strategies are present in this invasive plant species and are not mutually exclusive. Finally, higher tolerance to herbivory and competitive ability suggests that T. officinale could perform successfully in environments with different climatic conditions, and thus colonize and invade South-America.

Habitat requirements and landscape features can exert strong influences on the population structure of organisms. For aquatic organisms in particular, hydrologic requirements can dictate the extent of available habitat, and thus the degree of genetic connectivity among populations. We used a landscape genetics approach to evaluate hypotheses regarding the influence of landscape features on connectivity among populations of the giant water bug Abedus herberti (Hemiptera: Belostomatidae). Abedus herberti is restricted to naturally-fragmented, perennial stream habitats in arid regions of North America. This species is exceptional because it is flightless at all life stages. Thus, we hypothesized a high degree of population genetic structure in A. herberti due to hydrologic constraints on habitat and low dispersal ability of the organism. A total of 617 individuals were sampled from 20 populations across southeastern Arizona, USA and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. We used a Bayesian clustering method to delineate genetic groups among populations. To determine which of six landscape variables (representing hypotheses of landscape-level connectivity) has the strongest association with genetic connectivity in A. herberti, we used information-theoretic model selection. Strong population structure was evident among A. herberti populations, even at small spatial scales. At a larger scale, A. herberti populations were hierarchically structured across the study region, with groups of related populations generally occurring in the same mountain range, rather than in the same major watershed. Surprisingly, stream network connectivity was not important for explaining among-population patterns. Only the Curvature landscape variable was identified as having an association with genetic connectivity in A. herberti. The Curvature variable hypothesizes that gene flow tends to occur where local topography is concave, such as within stream drainages and dry gullies. Thus, our results suggest that population connectivity may depend on the shape of local overland topography rather than direct connectivity within stream drainage networks.

Recently, an increased effort has been directed towards understanding the distribution of genetic variation within and between populations, particularly at central and marginal areas of a species’ distribution. Much of this research is centred on the central-marginal hypothesis, which posits that populations at range margins are sparse, small and genetically diminished compared to those at the centre of a species’ distribution range. We tested predictions derived from the central-marginal hypothesis for the distribution of genetic variation and population differentiation in five European Coenagrionid damselfly species. We screened genetic variation (microsatellites) in populations sampled in the centre and margins of the species’ latitudinal ranges, assessed genetic diversity (H_S) in the populations and the distribution of this genetic diversity between populations (F_ST). We further assessed genetic substructure and migration with Bayesian assignment methods, and tested for significant associations between genetic substructure and bioclimatic and spatial (altitude and latitude) variables, using general linearized models. We found no general adherence to the central-marginal hypothesis; instead we found that other factors such as historical or current ecological factors often better explain the patterns uncovered. This was illustrated in Coenagrion mercuriale whose colonisation history and behaviour most likely led to the observation of a high genetic diversity in the south and lower genetic diversity with increasing latitude, and in C. armatum and C. pulchellum whose patterns of low genetic diversity coupled with the weakest genetic differentiation at one of their range margins suggested, respectively, possible range shifts and recent, strong selection pressure.