Forecasts of species endangerment under climate change usually ignore the processes by which species ranges shift. By analysing the ‘climate paths’ that range shifts might follow, and two key range-shift processes – dispersal and population persistence – we show that short-term climatic and population characteristics have dramatic effects on range-shift forecasts. By employing this approach with 15 amphibian species in the western USA, we make unexpected predictions. First, inter-decadal variability in climate change can prevent range shifts by causing gaps in climate paths, even in the absence of geographic barriers. Second, the hitherto unappreciated trait of persistence during unfavourable climatic conditions is critical to species range shifts. Third, climatic fluctuations and low persistence could lead to endangerment even if the future potential range size is large. These considerations may render habitat corridors ineffectual for some species, and conservationists may need to consider managed relocation and augmentation of in situ populations.

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Appendix S1 Bioclimate model performance and species taxonomy.

Appendix S2 Changes in range size under different climate scenarios and range shift parameter values.

Appendix S3 Range shift distances under different climate scenarios and range shift parameter values.

Figure S1 Mean ± standard error of the deviance explained by the 100 GAMs built for each species, using different sample-region radii.

Figure S2 Predicted potential and actual range sizes for all species, each decade from 1991 to 2099, assuming different parameter values for dispersal abilities and persistence.

Figure S3 Predicted potential and actual latitudinal shifts of the northern range margins of all species, relative to their 1961–1990 position, each decade from 1991 to 2099.

Figure S4a Mean predicted extent of occurrence (EOO) between 2071 and 2099 for each species as predicted by GAMs.

Figure S4b Mean predicted extent of occurrence (EOO) between 2071 and 2099 for each species using Mahalanobis, Maxent and Bioclim predictions.

Table S1a Information on the taxonomy of modelled species and performance of bioclimate models.

Table S1b Information on the performance of alternative bioclimate models.

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Volume14, Issue11

November 2011

Pages 1125-1133

Analysis of climate paths reveals potential limitations on species range shifts

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Analysis of climate paths reveals potential limitations on species range shifts

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