Model Uncertainty and Forecast Combination in High‐Dimensional Multivariate Volatility Prediction

Abstract

In multivariate volatility prediction, identifying the optimal forecasting model is not always a feasible task. This is mainly due to the curse of dimensionality typically affecting multivariate volatility models. In practice only a subset of the potentially available models can be effectively estimated, after imposing severe constraints on the dynamic structure of the volatility process. It follows that in most applications the working forecasting model can be severely misspecified. This situation leaves scope for the application of forecast combination strategies as a tool for improving the predictive accuracy. The aim of the paper is to propose some alternative combination strategies and compare their performances in forecasting high‐dimensional multivariate conditional covariance matrices for a portfolio of US stock returns. In particular, we will consider the combination of volatility predictions generated by multivariate GARCH models, based on daily returns, and dynamic models for realized covariance matrices, built from intra‐daily returns. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.