What drives ‘soft deportation’? Understanding the rise in Assisted Voluntary Return among rejected asylum seekers in the Netherlands

Abstract

States experience difficulties in realizing the return of rejected asylum seekers, but migration control policies are becoming increasingly sophisticated. Against this background, we consider explanations for the increase in Assisted Voluntary Return from the Netherlands in the 2005–2011 period. Both macro-level factors (source country societal conditions and characteristics of the Dutch “deportation regime”) and individual-level factors (applicants' demographic characteristics and variation in status determination time) are examined. The study, which is based on a unique multilevel dataset (N = 15,682) with data from governmental and other sources (including International Organisation for Migration), is the first to quantitatively test assumed Assisted Voluntary Return determinants and contributes to the study of policy effects in migration studies. We find that states are capable of increasing return rates by expanding the use of “hard” and “soft” power. We propose the term “soft deportation” as a way to go beyond the dichotomy of “voluntary” and “forced” return.