Non‐parametric estimation of spatial variation in relative risk

Abstract

We consider the problem of estimating the spatial variation in relative risks of two diseases, say, over a geographical region. Using an underlying Poisson point process model, we approach the problem as one of density ratio estimation implemented with a non‐parametric kernel smoothing method. In order to assess the significance of any local peaks or troughs in the estimated risk surface, we introduce pointwise tolerance contours which can enhance a greyscale image plot of the estimate. We also propose a Monte Carlo test of the null hypothesis of constant risk over the whole region, to avoid possible over‐interpretation of the estimated risk surface. We illustrate the capabilities of the methodology with two epidemiological examples.