The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models
Corresponding Author
Hugo Valin
Ecosystems Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Corresponding author. Tel: +43-223-680-7405; fax: +43-223-680-7599. E-mail address: [email protected] (H. Valin).Search for more papers by this authorRonald D. Sands
Resource and Rural Economics Division, Economic Research Service (ERS), U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1400 Independence Ave., SW, Mailstop 1800, Washington, DC 20250 USA
Search for more papers by this authorDominique van der Mensbrugghe
Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESAD), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, Roma, 00153 Italy
Search for more papers by this authorGerald C. Nelson
Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), 2033 K St., NW, Washington, DC 20006-1002 USA
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61801, USA
Search for more papers by this authorHelal Ahammad
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), 1563 Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
Search for more papers by this authorElodie Blanc
Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02139-4307 USA
Search for more papers by this authorBenjamin Bodirsky
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A 31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Search for more papers by this authorShinichiro Fujimori
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Center for Social & Environmental Systems Research, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506 Japan
Search for more papers by this authorTomoko Hasegawa
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Center for Social & Environmental Systems Research, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506 Japan
Search for more papers by this authorPetr Havlik
Ecosystems Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Search for more papers by this authorEdwina Heyhoe
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), 1563 Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
Search for more papers by this authorPage Kyle
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740 USA
Search for more papers by this authorDaniel Mason-D'Croz
Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), 2033 K St., NW, Washington, DC 20006-1002 USA
Search for more papers by this authorSergey Paltsev
Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02139-4307 USA
Search for more papers by this authorSusanne Rolinski
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A 31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Search for more papers by this authorAndrzej Tabeau
Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB The Hague, Netherlands
Search for more papers by this authorHans van Meijl
Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB The Hague, Netherlands
Search for more papers by this authorMartin von Lampe
Trade and Agriculture Directorate (TAD), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2 rue André Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France
Search for more papers by this authorDirk Willenbockel
Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9RE, United Kingdom
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Hugo Valin
Ecosystems Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Corresponding author. Tel: +43-223-680-7405; fax: +43-223-680-7599. E-mail address: [email protected] (H. Valin).Search for more papers by this authorRonald D. Sands
Resource and Rural Economics Division, Economic Research Service (ERS), U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1400 Independence Ave., SW, Mailstop 1800, Washington, DC 20250 USA
Search for more papers by this authorDominique van der Mensbrugghe
Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESAD), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, Roma, 00153 Italy
Search for more papers by this authorGerald C. Nelson
Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), 2033 K St., NW, Washington, DC 20006-1002 USA
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61801, USA
Search for more papers by this authorHelal Ahammad
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), 1563 Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
Search for more papers by this authorElodie Blanc
Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02139-4307 USA
Search for more papers by this authorBenjamin Bodirsky
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A 31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Search for more papers by this authorShinichiro Fujimori
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Center for Social & Environmental Systems Research, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506 Japan
Search for more papers by this authorTomoko Hasegawa
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Center for Social & Environmental Systems Research, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506 Japan
Search for more papers by this authorPetr Havlik
Ecosystems Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Search for more papers by this authorEdwina Heyhoe
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), 1563 Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
Search for more papers by this authorPage Kyle
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740 USA
Search for more papers by this authorDaniel Mason-D'Croz
Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), 2033 K St., NW, Washington, DC 20006-1002 USA
Search for more papers by this authorSergey Paltsev
Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02139-4307 USA
Search for more papers by this authorSusanne Rolinski
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A 31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Search for more papers by this authorAndrzej Tabeau
Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB The Hague, Netherlands
Search for more papers by this authorHans van Meijl
Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI), Wageningen University and Research Centre, 2585 DB The Hague, Netherlands
Search for more papers by this authorMartin von Lampe
Trade and Agriculture Directorate (TAD), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2 rue André Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France
Search for more papers by this authorDirk Willenbockel
Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9RE, United Kingdom
Search for more papers by this authorAbstract
Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). We compare food demand projections in 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios of socioeconomic development, climate change, and bioenergy expansion. In the reference scenario (SSP2), food demand increases by 59–98% between 2005 and 2050, slightly higher than the most recent FAO projection of 54% from 2005/2007. The range of results is large, in particular for animal calories (between 61% and 144%), caused by differences in demand systems specifications, and in income and price elasticities. The results are more sensitive to socioeconomic assumptions than to climate change or bioenergy scenarios. When considering a world with higher population and lower economic growth (SSP3), consumption per capita drops on average by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. The maximum effect of climate change on calorie availability is −6% at the global level, and the effect of biofuel production on calorie availability is even smaller.
Supporting Information
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| Filename | Description |
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| agec12089-sup-0001-Appendix.zip1.9 MB | Data Appendix Available Online A data appendix to replicate main results is available in the online version of this article. |
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