An evaluation of methods for modelling species distributions
Abstract
Aim Various statistical techniques have been used to model species probabilities of occurrence in response to environmental conditions. This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of methods and investigates whether errors in model predictions are associated to specific kinds of geographical and environmental distributions of species.
Location Portugal, Western Europe.
Methods Probabilities of occurrence for 44 species of amphibians and reptiles in Portugal were modelled using seven modelling techniques: Gower metric, Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, classification trees, neural networks, generalized linear models, generalized additive models and spatial interpolators. Generalized linear and additive models were constructed with and without a term accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Model performance was measured using two methods: sensitivity and Kappa index. Species were grouped according to their spatial (area of occupancy and extent of occurrence) and environmental (marginality and tolerance) distributions. Two‐way comparison tests were performed to detect significant interactions between models and species groups.
Results Interaction between model and species groups was significant for both sensitivity and Kappa index. This indicates that model performance varied for species with different geographical and environmental distributions. Artificial neural networks performed generally better, immediately followed by generalized additive models including a covariate term for spatial autocorrelation. Non‐parametric methods were preferred to parametric approaches, especially when modelling distributions of species with a greater area of occupancy, a larger extent of occurrence, lower marginality and higher tolerance.
Main conclusions This is a first attempt to relate performance of modelling techniques with species spatial and environmental distributions. Results indicate a strong relationship between model performance and the kinds of species distributions being modelled. Some methods performed generally better, but no method was superior in all circumstances. A suggestion is made that choice of the appropriate method should be contingent on the goals and kinds of distributions being modelled.
Citing Literature
Number of times cited according to CrossRef: 470
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- Stefanie Gärtner, Albert Reif, Fotios Xystrakis, Uwe Sayer, Nawal Bendagha and Andreas Matzarakis, The drought tolerance limit of Fagus sylvatica forest on limestone in southwestern Germany, Journal of Vegetation Science, 19, 6, (757-768), (2009).
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- Guangshun Jiang, Minghai Zhang and Jianzhang Ma, Habitat use and separation between red deer Cervus elaphus xanthopygus and roe deer Capreolus pygargus bedfordi in relation to human disturbance in the Wandashan Mountains, northeastern China, Wildlife Biology, 14, 1, (92), (2008).
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- Justin D. Hoffman, Sunil Narumalani, Deepak R. Mishra, Paul Merani and Robert G. Wilson, Predicting Potential Occurrence and Spread of Invasive Plant Species along the North Platte River, Nebraska, Invasive Plant Science and Management, 1, 04, (359), (2008).
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- Ada Sánchez-Mercado, José R. Ferrer-Paris, Edgard Yerena, Shaenandhoa García-Rangel and Kathryn M. Rodríguez-Clark, Factors affecting poaching risk to Vulnerable Andean bears Tremarctos ornatus in the Cordillera de Mérida, Venezuela: space, parks and people, Oryx, 42, 03, (2008).
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- Marta López-Darias, Jorge M. Lobo and Patrick Gouat, Predicting potential distributions of invasive species: the exotic Barbary ground squirrel in the Canarian archipelago and the west Mediterranean region, Biological Invasions, 10.1007/s10530-007-9181-2, 10, 7, (1027-1040), (2007).
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- Vasilis D. Valavanis, Graham J. Pierce, Alain F. Zuur, Andreas Palialexis, Anatoly Saveliev, Isidora Katara and Jianjun Wang, Modelling of essential fish habitat based on remote sensing, spatial analysis and GIS, Hydrobiologia, 10.1007/s10750-008-9493-y, 612, 1, (5-20), (2008).
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- Fabio Attorre, Fabio Francesconi, Nadim Taleb, Paul Scholte, Ahmed Saed, Marco Alfo and Franco Bruno, Will dragonblood survive the next period of climate change? Current and future potential distribution of Dracaena cinnabari (Socotra, Yemen), Biological Conservation, 138, 3-4, (430), (2007).
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- Daniel W. McKenney, John H. Pedlar, Kevin Lawrence, Kathy Campbell and Michael F. Hutchinson, Beyond Traditional Hardiness Zones: Using Climate Envelopes to Map Plant Range Limits, BioScience, 10.1641/B571105, 57, 11, (929-937), (2007).
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- Irina Levinsky, Flemming Skov, Jens-Christian Svenning and Carsten Rahbek, Potential impacts of climate change on the distributions and diversity patterns of European mammals, Biodiversity and Conservation, 10.1007/s10531-007-9181-7, 16, 13, (3803-3816), (2007).
- Christopher J. Ellis, Brian J. Coppins and Terence P. Dawson, Predicted response of the lichen epiphyte Lecanora populicola to climate change scenarios in a clean-air region of Northern Britain, Biological Conservation, 10.1016/j.biocon.2006.10.036, 135, 3, (396-404), (2007).
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- Graeme S. Cumming and Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Will climate change affect ectoparasite species ranges?, Global Ecology and Biogeography, 15, 5, (486-497), (2006).
- Jane Elith*, Catherine H. Graham*, Robert P. Anderson, Miroslav Dudík, Simon Ferrier, Antoine Guisan, Robert J. Hijmans, Falk Huettmann, John R. Leathwick, Anthony Lehmann, Jin Li, Lucia G. Lohmann, Bette A. Loiselle, Glenn Manion, Craig Moritz, Miguel Nakamura, Yoshinori Nakazawa, Jacob McC. M. Overton, A. Townsend Peterson, Steven J. Phillips, Karen Richardson, Ricardo Scachetti‐Pereira, Robert E. Schapire, Jorge Soberón, Stephen Williams, Mary S. Wisz and Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data, Ecography, 29, 2, (129-151), (2006).
- Marco Moretti, Marco Conedera, Ruben Moresi and Antoine Guisan, Modelling the influence of change in fire regime on the local distribution of a Mediterranean pyrophytic plant species (Cistus salviifolius) at its northern range limit, Journal of Biogeography, 33, 8, (1492-1502), (2006).
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- Kristen C. Ruegg, Robert J. Hijmans and Craig Moritz, Climate change and the origin of migratory pathways in the Swainson's thrush, Catharus ustulatus, Journal of Biogeography, 33, 7, (1172-1182), (2006).
- José Alexandre Felizola Diniz‐Filho, Modern processes drive macroecological patterns in North American avifauna, Journal of Biogeography, 33, 7, (1153-1154), (2006).
- Heather Schussman, Erika Geiger, Theresa Mau‐Crimmins and Judy Ward, Spread and current potential distribution of an alien grass, Eragrostis lehmanniana Nees, in the southwestern USA: comparing historical data and ecological niche models, Diversity and Distributions, 12, 5, (582-592), (2006).
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- Steven L. Chown and John S. Terblanche, Physiological Diversity in Insects: Ecological and Evolutionary Contexts, Advances in Insect Physiology Volume 33, 10.1016/S0065-2806(06)33002-0, (50-152), (2006).
- PHILIP E. HULME, Beyond control: wider implications for the management of biological invasions, Journal of Applied Ecology, 43, 5, (835-847), (2006).
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- P.M. Berry, M.D.A. Rounsevell, P.A. Harrison and E. Audsley, Assessing the vulnerability of agricultural land use and species to climate change and the role of policy in facilitating adaptation, Environmental Science & Policy, 9, 2, (189), (2006).
- Lise Tole, Choosing reserve sites probabilistically: A Colombian Amazon case study, Ecological Modelling, 194, 4, (344), (2006).
- Antje Burke, Savanna trees in Namibia—Factors controlling their distribution at the arid end of the spectrum, Flora - Morphology, Distribution, Functional Ecology of Plants, 201, 3, (189), (2006).
- Christophe Coudun and Jean-Claude Gégout, The derivation of species response curves with Gaussian logistic regression is sensitive to sampling intensity and curve characteristics, Ecological Modelling, 199, 2, (164), (2006).
- Christophe Coudun, Jean‐Claude Gégout, Christian Piedallu and Jean‐Claude Rameau, Soil nutritional factors improve models of plant species distribution: an illustration with Acer campestre (L.) in France, Journal of Biogeography, 33, 10, (1750-1763), (2006).
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- Marta Benito Garzón, Radim Blazek, Markus Neteler, Rut Sánchez de Dios, Helios Sainz Ollero and Cesare Furlanello, Predicting habitat suitability with machine learning models: The potential area of Pinus sylvestris L. in the Iberian Peninsula, Ecological Modelling, 197, 3-4, (383), (2006).
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