A Space–Time Conditional Intensity Model for Invasive Meningococcal Disease Occurrence
Abstract
Summary A novel point process model continuous in space–time is proposed for quantifying the transmission dynamics of the two most common meningococcal antigenic sequence types observed in Germany 2002–2008. Modeling is based on the conditional intensity function (CIF), which is described by a superposition of additive and multiplicative components. As an epidemiological interesting finding, spread behavior was shown to depend on type in addition to age: basic reproduction numbers were 0.25 (95% CI 0.19–0.34) and 0.11 (95% CI 0.07–0.17) for types B:P1.7–2,4:F1–5 and C:P1.5,2:F3–3, respectively. Altogether, the proposed methodology represents a comprehensive and universal regression framework for the modeling, simulation, and inference of self‐exciting spatiotemporal point processes based on the CIF. Usability of the modeling in biometric practice is promoted by an implementation in the R package surveillance.
Citing Literature
Number of times cited according to CrossRef: 25
- Mason Youngblood, Extremist ideology as a complex contagion: the spread of far-right radicalization in the United States between 2005 and 2017, Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 10.1057/s41599-020-00546-3, 7, 1, (2020).
- Emily A Wang, Carley Riley, George Wood, Ann Greene, Nadine Horton, Maurice Williams, Pina Violano, Rachel Michele Brase, Lauren Brinkley-Rubinstein, Andrew V Papachristos, Brita Roy, Building community resilience to prevent and mitigate community impact of gun violence: conceptual framework and intervention design, BMJ Open, 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-040277, 10, 10, (e040277), (2020).
- Giada Adelfio, Marcello Chiodi, Including covariates in a space-time point process with application to seismicity, Statistical Methods & Applications, 10.1007/s10260-020-00543-5, (2020).
- Junhyung Park, Adam W. Chaffee, Ryan J. Harrigan, Frederic Paik Schoenberg, A non-parametric Hawkes model of the spread of Ebola in west Africa, Journal of Applied Statistics, 10.1080/02664763.2020.1825646, (1-17), (2020).
- J. Daniel Kelly, Junhyung Park, Ryan J. Harrigan, Nicole A. Hoff, Sarita D. Lee, Rae Wannier, Bernice Selo, Mathias Mossoko, Bathe Njoloko, Emile Okitolonda-Wemakoy, Placide Mbala-Kingebeni, George W. Rutherford, Thomas B. Smith, Steve Ahuka-Mundeke, Jean Jacques Muyembe-Tamfum, Anne W. Rimoin, Frederic Paik Schoenberg, Real-time predictions of the 2018-2019 Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo using Hawkes point process models, Epidemics, 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100354, (100354), (2019).
- Cathy W. S. Chen, Khemmanant Khamthong, Sangyeol Lee, Markov switching integer‐valued generalized auto‐regressive conditional heteroscedastic models for dengue counts, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 10.1111/rssc.12344, 68, 4, (963-983), (2019).
- Puneet Pasricha, Dharmaraja Selvamuthu, A Markov Modulated Dynamic Contagion Process with Application to Credit Risk, Journal of Statistical Physics, 10.1007/s10955-019-02264-w, (2019).
- Jiancang Zhuang, Estimation, diagnostics, and extensions of nonparametric Hawkes processes with kernel functions, Japanese Journal of Statistics and Data Science, 10.1007/s42081-019-00060-0, (2019).
- Frederic Paik Schoenberg, Joshua Seth Gordon, Ryan J. Harrigan, Analytic computation of nonparametric Marsan–Lengliné estimates for Hawkes point processes, Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, 10.1080/10485252.2018.1475663, 30, 3, (742-757), (2018).
- Alex Reinhart, Joel Greenhouse, Self‐exciting point processes with spatial covariates: modelling the dynamics of crime, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 10.1111/rssc.12277, 67, 5, (1305-1329), (2018).
- Viswanathan Arunachalam, Liliana Blanco, Stochastic Models for the Infectivity Function in an Infinite Population of Susceptible Individuals, Journal of Probability and Statistics, 10.1155/2017/9064821, 2017, (1-6), (2017).
- Chrisovalantis Malesios, Nikolaos Demiris, P. Kostoulas, K. Dadousis, T. Koutroumanidis, Z Abas, Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Foot-and-Mouth Outbreaks, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.3025787, (2017).
- Chrisovalantis Malesios, Nikolaos Demiris, Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos, Ioannis Ntzoufras, Bayesian epidemic models for spatially aggregated count data, Statistics in Medicine, 10.1002/sim.7364, 36, 20, (3216-3230), (2017).
- C. MALESIOS, N. DEMIRIS, P. KOSTOULAS, K. DADOUSIS, T. KOUTROUMANIDIS, Z. ABAS, Spatio-temporal modelling of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks, Epidemiology and Infection, 10.1017/S095026881600087X, 144, 12, (2485-2493), (2016).
- Keith Burghardt, Christopher Verzijl, Junming Huang, Matthew Ingram, Binyang Song, Marie-Pierre Hasne, Testing Modeling Assumptions in the West Africa Ebola Outbreak, Scientific Reports, 10.1038/srep34598, 6, 1, (2016).
- Sebastian Meyer, Ingeborg Warnke, Wulf Rössler, Leonhard Held, Model-based testing for space–time interaction using point processes: An application to psychiatric hospital admissions in an urban area, Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, 10.1016/j.sste.2016.03.002, 17, (15-25), (2016).
- Stephen J. Price, Trenton W. J. Garner, Andrew A. Cunningham, Tom E. S. Langton, Richard A. Nichols, Reconstructing the emergence of a lethal infectious disease of wildlife supports a key role for spread through translocations by humans, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 10.1098/rspb.2016.0952, 283, 1839, (20160952), (2016).
- Sinead E. Morris, Jonathan L. Zelner, Deborah A. Fauquier, Teresa K. Rowles, Patricia E. Rosel, Frances Gulland, Bryan T. Grenfell, Partially observed epidemics in wildlife hosts: modelling an outbreak of dolphin morbillivirus in the northwestern Atlantic, June 2013–2014, Journal of The Royal Society Interface, 10.1098/rsif.2015.0676, 12, 112, (20150676), (2015).
- F. J. Rodríguez-Cortés, J. Mateu, Second-order smoothing of spatial point patterns with small sample sizes: a family of kernels, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 10.1007/s00477-014-0944-x, 29, 1, (295-308), (2014).
- Eamon B. O’Dea, Kim M. Pepin, Ben A. Lopman, Claus O. Wilke, Fitting outbreak models to data from many small norovirus outbreaks, Epidemics, 10.1016/j.epidem.2013.12.002, 6, (18-29), (2014).
- Hwa‐Lung Yu, José M. Angulo, Ming‐Hung Cheng, Jiaping Wu, George Christakos, An online spatiotemporal prediction model for dengue fever epidemic in Kaohsiung (Taiwan), Biometrical Journal, 10.1002/bimj.201200270, 56, 3, (428-440), (2014).
- Aline Piroutek, Renato Assunção, Thaís Paiva, Space–time prospective surveillance based on Knox local statistics, Statistics in Medicine, 10.1002/sim.6118, 33, 16, (2758-2773), (2014).
- Rachel A Hegemann, Erik A Lewis, Andrea L Bertozzi, An “Estimate & Score Algorithm” for simultaneous parameter estimation and reconstruction of incomplete data on social networks, Security Informatics, 10.1186/2190-8532-2-1, 2, 1, (2013).
- Ann E. Wiringa, Kathleen A. Shutt, Jane W. Marsh, Amanda C. Cohn, Nancy E. Messonnier, Shelley M. Zansky, Susan Petit, Monica M. Farley, Ken Gershman, Ruth Lynfield, Arthur Reingold, William Schaffner, Jamie Thompson, Shawn T. Brown, Bruce Y. Lee, Lee H. Harrison, Geotemporal Analysis of Neisseria meningitidis Clones in the United States: 2000–2005, PLoS ONE, 10.1371/journal.pone.0082048, 8, 12, (e82048), (2013).
- Gentry White, Michael D. Porter, Lorraine Mazerolle, Terrorism Risk, Resilience and Volatility: A Comparison of Terrorism Patterns in Three Southeast Asian Countries, Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 10.1007/s10940-012-9181-y, 29, 2, (295-320), (2012).
