Volume 31, Issue 4

Television and the Incumbency Advantage in U.S. Elections

STEPHEN ANSOLABEHERE

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Stephen Ansolabehere <sda@mit.edu> is the Elting R. Morison Professor of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139–4307.

Search for more papers by this author
ERIK C. SNOWBERG

Stanford University

Erik Snowberg <snowberg@stanford.edu> is a Ph.D. candidate, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Ph.D. Program, 518 Memorial Way, Stanford, CA 94305–5015.

Search for more papers by this author
JAMES M. SNYDER JR.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

James M. Snyder, Jr. <millet@mit.edu> is the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139–4307.

Search for more papers by this author
First published: 07 January 2011
Citations: 50

Abstract

We use the structure of media markets within states and across state boundaries to study the relationship between television and electoral competition. In particular, we compare incumbent vote margins in media markets where content originates in the same state as media consumers versus vote margins where content originates out of state. This contrast provides a clear test of whether or not television coverage correlates with the incumbency advantage. We study U.S. Senate and state gubernatorial races from the 1950s through the 1990s and find that the effect of TV is small, directionally indeterminate, and statistically insignificant.

Number of times cited according to CrossRef: 50

  • Abandon ship? Party brands and politicians' responses to a political scandal, Journal of Public Economics, 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104172, 184, (104172), (2020).
  • The Only (Other) Poll That Matters? Exit Polls and Election Night Forecasts in BBC General Election Results Broadcasts, 1955–2017, Political Studies, 10.1177/0032321720906324, (003232172090632), (2020).
  • Social Media and Political Contributions: The Impact of New Technology on Political Competition, Management Science, 10.1287/mnsc.2020.3740, (2020).
  • Publicising Malfeasance: When the Local Media Structure Facilitates Electoral Accountability in Mexico, The Economic Journal, 10.1093/ej/ueaa046, (2020).
  • Local television, citizen knowledge and U.S. senators' roll-call voting, European Journal of Political Economy, 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2018.08.012, 56, (212-232), (2019).
  • Political Advertising and Election Results*, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 10.1093/qje/qjy010, 133, 4, (1981-2036), (2018).
  • Modeling surveys effects in political competitions, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 10.1016/j.physa.2018.02.211, 503, (714-726), (2018).
  • Leveling the playing field: How campaign advertising can help non-dominant parties, Journal of the European Economic Association, 10.1093/jeea/jvy001, 16, 6, (1812-1849), (2018).
  • A Bayesian explanation for the effect of incumbency, Electoral Studies, 10.1016/j.electstud.2018.03.005, 53, (66-78), (2018).
  • Panem Et Circenses: The Persuasive Effect of Soft News in Berlusconi's Italy, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.3245572, (2018).
  • Condorcet Jury Theorem in a Spatial Model of Elections, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.3245949, (2018).
  • Small screen, big echo? Estimating the political persuasion of local television news bias using the Sinclair Broadcasting Group as a natural experiment, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.3266755, (2018).
  • Media Scandals Are Political Events, Political Research Quarterly, 10.1177/1065912916684034, 70, 1, (223-236), (2017).
  • undefined, 2017 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (Big Data), 10.1109/BigData.2017.8258161, (2132-2140), (2017).
  • Off-Cycle and Out of Office: Election Timing and the Incumbency Advantage, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.2841925, (2017).
  • Higher bars for incumbents and experience, Journal of Theoretical Politics, 10.1177/0951629816664419, 29, 3, (492-513), (2016).
  • Political Campaigning Environments in Latvia: From a Global to a Local Perspective, Journal of Political Marketing, 10.1080/15377857.2016.1151120, 15, 2-3, (196-219), (2016).
  • Voting and Elections: New Social Science Perspectives, Annual Review of Law and Social Science, 10.1146/annurev-lawsocsci-110615-084704, 12, 1, (255-272), (2016).
  • Coming to Dislike Your Opponents: The Polarizing Impact of Political Campaigns, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.2840225, (2016).
  • Do Newspapers Benefit Incumbents?, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.2739246, (2016).
  • Social Media and Political Donations: New Technology and Incumbency Advantage in the United States, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.2836323, (2016).
  • The Runner-Up Effect, Journal of Political Economy, 10.1086/686746, 124, 4, (927-991), (2016).
  • Media markets and politicians involved in scandals, The Social Science Journal, 10.1016/j.soscij.2016.02.012, 53, 4, (389-397), (2016).
  • The mayor's advantage: Causal evidence on incumbency effects in German mayoral elections, European Journal of Political Economy, 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2015.07.005, 40, (16-30), (2015).
  • Information and Wasted Votes: A Study of U.S. Primary Elections, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.2641884, (2015).
  • Social Media Incumbent Advantage, The Routledge Companion to Social Media and Politics, 10.4324/9781315716299, (364-377), (2015).
  • DO NEWSPAPERS SERVE THE STATE? INCUMBENT PARTY INFLUENCE ON THE US PRESS, 1869–1928, Journal of the European Economic Association, 10.1111/jeea.12119, 13, 1, (29-61), (2014).
  • Media markets, special interests, and voters, Journal of Public Economics, 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2013.10.007, 109, (13-26), (2014).
  • Incumbency effects in government and opposition: Evidence from Germany, European Journal of Political Economy, 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2014.07.008, 36, (117-134), (2014).
  • How Lame are Lame Ducks?, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.2510878, (2014).
  • Meet the Press: How Voters and Politicians Respond to Newspaper Entry and Exit, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 10.1257/app.6.3.159, 6, 3, (159-188), (2014).
  • Learning about an Infrequent Event: Evidence from Flood Insurance Take-Up in the United States, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 10.1257/app.6.3.206, 6, 3, (206-233), (2014).
  • The Political Economy of News Media: Theory, Evidence and Open Issues, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.2204473, (2013).
  • Meet the Press: How Voters and Politicians Respond to Newspaper Entry and Exit, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.2205638, (2013).
  • Do Newspapers Serve the State? Incumbent Party Influence on the US Press, 1869-1928, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.2089455, (2012).
  • Lame Ducks and Divided Government: How Voters Control the Unaccountable, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.2043019, (2012).
  • Media Markets, Special Interests, and Voters, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.2104297, (2012).
  • Controlling the Airwaves: Incumbency Advantage and Community Radio in Brazil, American Journal of Political Science, 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00532.x, 55, 4, (869-885), (2011).
  • Unpacking the Black Box of Causality: Learning about Causal Mechanisms from Experimental and Observational Studies, American Political Science Review, 10.1017/S0003055411000414, 105, 4, (765-789), (2011).
  • Deception in Speeches of Candidates for Public Office, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.1739282, (2011).
  • Incumbency, Party Identity and Governmental Lead: Evidence for Heterogeneous Incumbency Effects for Germany, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.1980683, (2011).
  • Looking the Part: Television Leads Less Informed Citizens to Vote Based on Candidates’ Appearance, American Journal of Political Science, 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00511.x, 55, 3, (574-589), (2011).
  • The Effect of Newspaper Entry and Exit on Electoral Politics, American Economic Review, 10.1257/aer.101.7.2980, 101, 7, (2980-3018), (2011).
  • Cohort Effects and the Incumbency Advantage, Legislative Studies Quarterly, 10.3162/036298008783743255, 33, 1, (113-129), (2011).
  • Inefficient policies and incumbency advantage, Journal of Public Economics, 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2010.05.002, 94, 9-10, (761-767), (2010).
  • Press Coverage and Political Accountability, Journal of Political Economy, 10.1086/652903, 118, 2, (355-408), (2010).
  • Do the Advantages of Incumbency Advantage Incumbents?, The Journal of Politics, 10.1017/S0022381609990223, 71, 4, (1481-1498), (2009).
  • The Effect of Newspaper Entry and Exit on Electoral Politics, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.1508431, (2009).
  • It's the Media, Stupid - How Media Activity Shapes Public Spending, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.1263965, (2007).
  • The Rising Incumbent Advantage: What's Gerrymandering Got to Do With It?, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.847656, (2005).

The full text of this article hosted at iucr.org is unavailable due to technical difficulties.