Television and the Incumbency Advantage in U.S. Elections
Abstract
We use the structure of media markets within states and across state boundaries to study the relationship between television and electoral competition. In particular, we compare incumbent vote margins in media markets where content originates in the same state as media consumers versus vote margins where content originates out of state. This contrast provides a clear test of whether or not television coverage correlates with the incumbency advantage. We study U.S. Senate and state gubernatorial races from the 1950s through the 1990s and find that the effect of TV is small, directionally indeterminate, and statistically insignificant.
Citing Literature
Number of times cited according to CrossRef: 50
- Gianmarco Daniele, Sergio Galletta, Benny Geys, Abandon ship? Party brands and politicians' responses to a political scandal, Journal of Public Economics, 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104172, 184, (104172), (2020).
- Stuart Wilks-Heeg, Peter Andersen, The Only (Other) Poll That Matters? Exit Polls and Election Night Forecasts in BBC General Election Results Broadcasts, 1955–2017, Political Studies, 10.1177/0032321720906324, (003232172090632), (2020).
- Maria Petrova, Ananya Sen, Pinar Yildirim, Social Media and Political Contributions: The Impact of New Technology on Political Competition, Management Science, 10.1287/mnsc.2020.3740, (2020).
- Horacio Larreguy, John Marshall, James M Snyder, Publicising Malfeasance: When the Local Media Structure Facilitates Electoral Accountability in Mexico, The Economic Journal, 10.1093/ej/ueaa046, (2020).
- Mattias Nordin, Local television, citizen knowledge and U.S. senators' roll-call voting, European Journal of Political Economy, 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2018.08.012, 56, (212-232), (2019).
- Jörg L Spenkuch, David Toniatti, Political Advertising and Election Results*, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 10.1093/qje/qjy010, 133, 4, (1981-2036), (2018).
- A.E. Biondo, A. Pluchino, A. Rapisarda, Modeling surveys effects in political competitions, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 10.1016/j.physa.2018.02.211, 503, (714-726), (2018).
- Horacio A Larreguy, John Marshall, James M Snyder, Leveling the playing field: How campaign advertising can help non-dominant parties, Journal of the European Economic Association, 10.1093/jeea/jvy001, 16, 6, (1812-1849), (2018).
- Anthony Fowler, A Bayesian explanation for the effect of incumbency, Electoral Studies, 10.1016/j.electstud.2018.03.005, 53, (66-78), (2018).
- Andrea De Angelis, Alessandro Vecchiato, Panem Et Circenses: The Persuasive Effect of Soft News in Berlusconi's Italy, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.3245572, (2018).
- Sourav Bhattacharya, Condorcet Jury Theorem in a Spatial Model of Elections, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.3245949, (2018).
- Antonela Miho, Small screen, big echo? Estimating the political persuasion of local television news bias using the Sinclair Broadcasting Group as a natural experiment, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.3266755, (2018).
- Brendan Nyhan, Media Scandals Are Political Events, Political Research Quarterly, 10.1177/1065912916684034, 70, 1, (223-236), (2017).
- Adisak Sukul, Baskar Gopalakrishnan, Wallapak Tavanapong, David A.M. Peterson, undefined, 2017 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (Big Data), 10.1109/BigData.2017.8258161, (2132-2140), (2017).
- Justin de Benedictis-Kessner, Off-Cycle and Out of Office: Election Timing and the Incumbency Advantage, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.2841925, (2017).
- Hans Gersbach, Markus Müller, Higher bars for incumbents and experience, Journal of Theoretical Politics, 10.1177/0951629816664419, 29, 3, (492-513), (2016).
- Ieva Berzina, Political Campaigning Environments in Latvia: From a Global to a Local Perspective, Journal of Political Marketing, 10.1080/15377857.2016.1151120, 15, 2-3, (196-219), (2016).
- Richard Holden, Voting and Elections: New Social Science Perspectives, Annual Review of Law and Social Science, 10.1146/annurev-lawsocsci-110615-084704, 12, 1, (255-272), (2016).
- Gaurav Sood, Shanto Iyengar, Coming to Dislike Your Opponents: The Polarizing Impact of Political Campaigns, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.2840225, (2016).
- Alexander Fouirnaies, Do Newspapers Benefit Incumbents?, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.2739246, (2016).
- Maria Petrova, Ananya Sen, Social Media and Political Donations: New Technology and Incumbency Advantage in the United States, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.2836323, (2016).
- Santosh Anagol, Thomas Fujiwara, The Runner-Up Effect, Journal of Political Economy, 10.1086/686746, 124, 4, (927-991), (2016).
- B.K. Song, Media markets and politicians involved in scandals, The Social Science Journal, 10.1016/j.soscij.2016.02.012, 53, 4, (389-397), (2016).
- Ronny Freier, The mayor's advantage: Causal evidence on incumbency effects in German mayoral elections, European Journal of Political Economy, 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2015.07.005, 40, (16-30), (2015).
- Andrew B. Hall, James M. Snyder, Information and Wasted Votes: A Study of U.S. Primary Elections, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.2641884, (2015).
- Gunn Enli, Axel Bruns, Social Media Incumbent Advantage, The Routledge Companion to Social Media and Politics, 10.4324/9781315716299, (364-377), (2015).
- Matthew Gentzkow, Nathan Petek, Jesse M. Shapiro, Michael Sinkinson, DO NEWSPAPERS SERVE THE STATE? INCUMBENT PARTY INFLUENCE ON THE US PRESS, 1869–1928, Journal of the European Economic Association, 10.1111/jeea.12119, 13, 1, (29-61), (2014).
- Leopoldo Fergusson, Media markets, special interests, and voters, Journal of Public Economics, 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2013.10.007, 109, (13-26), (2014).
- Florian Ade, Ronny Freier, Christian Odendahl, Incumbency effects in government and opposition: Evidence from Germany, European Journal of Political Economy, 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2014.07.008, 36, (117-134), (2014).
- Christopher Koopman, Matthew D. Mitchell, Emily Washington, How Lame are Lame Ducks?, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.2510878, (2014).
- Francesco Drago, Tommaso Nannicini, Francesco Sobbrio, Meet the Press: How Voters and Politicians Respond to Newspaper Entry and Exit, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 10.1257/app.6.3.159, 6, 3, (159-188), (2014).
- Justin Gallagher, Learning about an Infrequent Event: Evidence from Flood Insurance Take-Up in the United States, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 10.1257/app.6.3.206, 6, 3, (206-233), (2014).
- Francesco Sobbrio, The Political Economy of News Media: Theory, Evidence and Open Issues, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.2204473, (2013).
- Francesco Drago, Tommaso Nannicini, Francesco Sobbrio, Meet the Press: How Voters and Politicians Respond to Newspaper Entry and Exit, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.2205638, (2013).
- Matthew Aaron Gentzkow, Nathan Petek, Jesse M. Shapiro, Michael Sinkinson, Do Newspapers Serve the State? Incumbent Party Influence on the US Press, 1869-1928, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.2089455, (2012).
- Mark Schelker, Lame Ducks and Divided Government: How Voters Control the Unaccountable, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.2043019, (2012).
- Leopoldo Fergusson, Media Markets, Special Interests, and Voters, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.2104297, (2012).
- Taylor C. Boas, F. Daniel Hidalgo, Controlling the Airwaves: Incumbency Advantage and Community Radio in Brazil, American Journal of Political Science, 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00532.x, 55, 4, (869-885), (2011).
- KOSUKE IMAI, LUKE KEELE, DUSTIN TINGLEY, TEPPEI YAMAMOTO, Unpacking the Black Box of Causality: Learning about Causal Mechanisms from Experimental and Observational Studies, American Political Science Review, 10.1017/S0003055411000414, 105, 4, (765-789), (2011).
- Christian Leuprecht, Deception in Speeches of Candidates for Public Office, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.1739282, (2011).
- Florian Ade, Ronny Freier, Christian Odendahl, Incumbency, Party Identity and Governmental Lead: Evidence for Heterogeneous Incumbency Effects for Germany, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.1980683, (2011).
- Gabriel S. Lenz, Chappell Lawson, Looking the Part: Television Leads Less Informed Citizens to Vote Based on Candidates’ Appearance, American Journal of Political Science, 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00511.x, 55, 3, (574-589), (2011).
- Matthew Gentzkow, Jesse M Shapiro, Michael Sinkinson, The Effect of Newspaper Entry and Exit on Electoral Politics, American Economic Review, 10.1257/aer.101.7.2980, 101, 7, (2980-3018), (2011).
- ERIC MCGHEE, Cohort Effects and the Incumbency Advantage, Legislative Studies Quarterly, 10.3162/036298008783743255, 33, 1, (113-129), (2011).
- Roland Hodler, Simon Loertscher, Dominic Rohner, Inefficient policies and incumbency advantage, Journal of Public Economics, 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2010.05.002, 94, 9-10, (761-767), (2010).
- James M. Snyder, David Strömberg, Press Coverage and Political Accountability, Journal of Political Economy, 10.1086/652903, 118, 2, (355-408), (2010).
- Sanford C. Gordon, Dimitri Landa, Do the Advantages of Incumbency Advantage Incumbents?, The Journal of Politics, 10.1017/S0022381609990223, 71, 4, (1481-1498), (2009).
- Matthew Aaron Gentzkow, Jesse M. Shapiro, Michael Sinkinson, The Effect of Newspaper Entry and Exit on Electoral Politics, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.1508431, (2009).
- Christian Bruns, Oliver Himmler, It's the Media, Stupid - How Media Activity Shapes Public Spending, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.1263965, (2007).
- John N. Friedman, Richard Holden, The Rising Incumbent Advantage: What's Gerrymandering Got to Do With It?, SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.847656, (2005).




