Planning for Climate Change: Identifying Minimum‐Dispersal Corridors for the Cape Proteaceae
Planificación para el Cambio Climático: Identificación de Corredores de Dispersión Mínima para las Proteaceae del Cabo
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Abstract
enAbstract: Climate change poses a challenge to the conventional approach to biodiversity conservation, which relies on fixed protected areas, because the changing climate is expected to shift the distribution of suitable areas for many species. Some species will persist only if they can colonize new areas, although in some cases their dispersal abilities may be very limited. To address this problem we devised a quantitative method for identifying multiple corridors of connectivity through shifting habitat suitabilities that seeks to minimize dispersal demands first and then the area of land required. We applied the method to Proteaceae mapped on a 1‐minute grid for the western part of the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, to supplement the existing protected areas, using Worldmap software. Our goal was to represent each species in at least 35 grid cells (approximately 100 km2) at all times between 2000 and 2050 despite climate change. Although it was possible to achieve the goal at reasonable cost, caution will be needed in applying our method to reserves or other conservation investments until there is further information to support or refine the climate‐change models and the species' habitat‐suitability and dispersal models.
Abstract
esResumen: El cambio climático representa un reto para la estrategia tradicional de la conservación de la biodiversidad que se basa en áreas protegidas fijas, porque se espera que el cambio climático cambie la distribución de áreas adecuadas para muchas especies. Algunas especies solo persistirán si pueden colonizar nuevas áreas, aunque sus aptitudes dispersoras pueden ser muy limitadas en algunos casos. Para abordar este problema ideamos un método cuantitativo para identificar múltiples corredores de conectividad en hábitats con diferentes aptitudes que primero busca minimizar las demandas de dispersión y el área requerida después. Utilizamos software Worlmap para aplicar el método a Proteaceae en un mapa con cuadrícula de un minuto de la parte occidental de la región Florística del cabo en Sudáfrica, un área que suplementa a las áreas protegidas existentes. Nuestra meta era representar cada especie presente en al menos 35 celdas (aproximadamente 100 km2) entre 2000 y 2050 a pesar del cambio climático. Aunque era posible alcanzar la meta con un costo razonable, se requiere precaución al aplicar nuestro método en reservas u otras inversiones de conservación hasta que haya más información para sustentar o refinar los modelos de cambio climático y los modelos de aptitud del hábitat y de dispersión de especies.
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