Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate change
J. A. F. Diniz‐Filho (diniz@icb.ufg.br), L. M. Bini and R. D. Loyola, Depto de Ecologia, ICB, Univ. Federal de Goiás (UFG), Cx.P. 131, 74001‐970 Goiânia, GO, Brasil. – T. F. Rangel, Dept of Ecology and Evolution, Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269‐3043, USA. – C. Hof and D. Nogués‐Bravo, Depto de Biodiversidad y Biología Evolutiva, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC, ES‐28006 Madrid, Spain and Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Dept of Biology, Univ. of Copenhagen, DK‐2100 Copenhagen, Denmark. – M. B. Araújo, Depto de Biodiversidad y Biología Evolutiva, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC, ES‐28006 Madrid, Spain and Cátedra Rui Nabeiro – Biodiversidade, CIBIO, Univ. de Évora, Largo dos Colegiais, PT‐7000 Évora, Portugal.
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Abstract
Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are fraught with uncertainties and ensemble forecasting may provide a framework to deal with such uncertainties. Here, a novel approach to partition the variance among modeled attributes, such as richness or turnover, and map sources of uncertainty in ensembles of forecasts is presented. We model the distributions of 3837 New World birds and project them into 2080. We then quantify and map the relative contribution of different sources of uncertainty from alternative methods for niche modeling, general circulation models (AOGCM), and emission scenarios. The greatest source of uncertainty in forecasts of species range shifts arises from using alternative methods for niche modeling, followed by AOGCM, and their interaction. Our results concur with previous studies that discovered that projections from alternative models can be extremely varied, but we provide a new analytical framework to examine uncertainties in models by quantifying their importance and mapping their patterns.
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- Nancy L. Shackell, Daniel Ricard, Christine Stortini and Peter S. Petraitis, Thermal Habitat Index of Many Northwest Atlantic Temperate Species Stays Neutral under Warming Projected for 2030 but Changes Radically by 2060, PLoS ONE, 9, 3, (e90662), (2014).
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- Fernando L. Sobral, Lucas Jardim, Priscila Lemes, Nathália Machado, Rafael Loyola and Marcus V. Cianciaruso, Spatial conservation priorities for top predators reveal mismatches among taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity, Natureza & Conservação, 12, 2, (150), (2014).
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- Andreas L.S. Meyer, Marcio R. Pie and Fernando C. Passos, Assessing the exposure of lion tamarins (Leontopithecus spp.) to future climate change, American Journal of Primatology, 76, 6, (551-562), (2013).
- Rafael D. Loyola, Priscila Lemes, Fernanda T. Brum, Diogo B. Provete and Leandro D. S. Duarte, Clade‐specific consequences of climate change to amphibians in Atlantic Forest protected areas, Ecography, 37, 1, (65-72), (2013).
- A. Sánchez‐Mercado, J. R. Ferrer‐Paris, S. García‐Rangel, E. Yerena, B. A. Robertson and K. M. Rodríguez‐Clark, Combining threat and occurrence models to predict potential ecological traps for Andean bears in the Cordillera de Mérida, Venezuela, Animal Conservation, 17, 4, (388-398), (2014).
- Natácia Evangelista Lima, Matheus S. Lima‐Ribeiro, Carla Faleiro Tinoco, Levi Carina Terribile and Rosane G. Collevatti, Phylogeography and ecological niche modelling, coupled with the fossil pollen record, unravel the demographic history of a Neotropical swamp palm through the Quaternary, Journal of Biogeography, 41, 4, (673-686), (2014).
- Diogo Alagador, Jorge Orestes Cerdeira and Miguel Bastos Araújo, Shifting protected areas: scheduling spatial priorities under climate change, Journal of Applied Ecology, 51, 3, (703-713), (2014).
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- Isabel M. D. Rosa, Sadia E. Ahmed and Robert M. Ewers, The transparency, reliability and utility of tropical rainforest land‐use and land‐cover change models, Global Change Biology, 20, 6, (1707-1722), (2014).
- Daniel P. Silva, Victor H. Gonzalez, Gabriel A.R. Melo, Mariano Lucia, Leopoldo J. Alvarez and Paulo De Marco, Seeking the flowers for the bees: Integrating biotic interactions into niche models to assess the distribution of the exotic bee species Lithurgus huberi in South America, Ecological Modelling, 273, (200), (2014).
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- Daniel P. Silva, Bruno Vilela, Paulo De Marco, André Nemésio and Nicolas Chaline, Using Ecological Niche Models and Niche Analyses to Understand Speciation Patterns: The Case of Sister Neotropical Orchid Bees, PLoS ONE, 9, 11, (e113246), (2014).
- J. L. Metcalf, S. Prost, D. Nogues-Bravo, E. G. DeChaine, C. Anderson, P. Batra, M. B. Araujo, A. Cooper and R. P. Guralnick, Integrating multiple lines of evidence into historical biogeography hypothesis testing: a Bison bison case study, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 10.1098/rspb.2013.2782, 281, 1777, (20132782-20132782), (2014).
- Francesco Tonini, Fabio Divino, Giovanna Jona Lasinio, Hartwig H. Hochmair and Rudolf H. Scheffrahn, Predicting the Geographical Distribution of Two Invasive Termite Species From Occurrence Data, Environmental Entomology, 43, 5, (1135), (2014).
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- Raimundo Real, David Romero, Jesús Olivero, Alba Estrada, Ana L. Márquez and Kimberly Patraw Van Niel, Estimating How Inflated or Obscured Effects of Climate Affect Forecasted Species Distribution, PLoS ONE, 8, 1, (e53646), (2013).
- Fernando Martínez-Freiría, Hamida Argaz, Soumía Fahd and José C. Brito, Climate change is predicted to negatively influence Moroccan endemic reptile richness. Implications for conservation in protected areas, Naturwissenschaften, 10.1007/s00114-013-1088-4, 100, 9, (877-889), (2013).
- Antonio-Román Muñoz, Ana Luz Márquez, Raimundo Real and Matt Hayward, Updating Known Distribution Models for Forecasting Climate Change Impact on Endangered Species, PLoS ONE, 8, 6, (e65462), (2013).
- Rosane G. Collevatti, Matheus Souza Lima-Ribeiro, José Alexandre F. Diniz-Filho, Guilherme Oliveira, Ricardo Dobrovolski and Levi Carina Terribile, Stability of Brazilian Seasonally Dry Forests under Climate Change: Inferences for Long-Term Conservation, American Journal of Plant Sciences, 10.4236/ajps.2013.44098, 04, 04, (792-805), (2013).
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- Bénédicte Madon, David I. Warton and Miguel B. Araújo, Community‐level vs species‐specific approaches to model selection, Ecography, 36, 12, (1291-1298), (2013).
- Frederico V. Faleiro and Rafael D. Loyola, Socioeconomic and political trade‐offs in biodiversity conservation: a case study of the Cerrado Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil, Diversity and Distributions, 19, 8, (977-987), (2013).
- Rosane G. Collevatti, Levi Carina Terribile, Guilherme Oliveira, Matheus S. Lima‐Ribeiro, João C. Nabout, Thiago F. Rangel and Jose Alexandre F. Diniz‐Filho, Drawbacks to palaeodistribution modelling: the case of South American seasonally dry forests, Journal of Biogeography, 40, 2, (345-358), (2012).
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- Hong Qian, Nathan G. Swenson and Jinlong Zhang, Phylogenetic beta diversity of angiosperms in North America, Global Ecology and Biogeography, 22, 10, (1152-1161), (2013).
- Ilona R. Naujokaitis‐Lewis, Janelle M. R. Curtis, Lutz Tischendorf, Debbie Badzinski, Kathryn Lindsay and Marie‐Josée Fortin, Uncertainties in coupled species distribution–metapopulation dynamics models for risk assessments under climate change, Diversity and Distributions, 19, 5-6, (541-554), (2013).
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- Brenna R. Forester, Eric G. DeChaine and Andrew G. Bunn, Integrating ensemble species distribution modelling and statistical phylogeography to inform projections of climate change impacts on species distributions, Diversity and Distributions, 19, 12, (1480-1495), (2013).
- Irina Levinsky, Miguel B. Araújo, David Nogués‐Bravo, Alan M. Haywood, Paul J. Valdes and Carsten Rahbek, Climate envelope models suggest spatio‐temporal co‐occurrence of refugia of African birds and mammals, Global Ecology and Biogeography, 22, 3, (351-363), (2013).
- Jeffrey T. Morisette, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Tracy R. Holcombe, Colin B. Talbert, Drew Ignizio, Marian K. Talbert, Claudio Silva, David Koop, Alan Swanson and Nicholas E. Young, VisTrails SAHM: visualization and workflow management for species habitat modeling, Ecography, 36, 2, (129-135), (2013).
- Lorena Mendes Simon, Guilherme de Oliveira, Bruno de Souza Barreto, João Carlos Nabout, Thiago Fernando Lopes Valle Britto Rangel and José Alexandre Felizola Diniz-Filho, Effects of global climate changes on geographical distribution patterns of economically important plant species in cerrado, Revista Árvore, 37, 2, (267), (2013).
- Rafael D. Loyola, Priscila Lemes, João Carlos Nabout, Joaquim Trindade-Filho, Maíra Dalía Sagnori, Ricardo Dobrovolski and José Alexandre F. Diniz-Filho, A straightforward conceptual approach for evaluating spatial conservation priorities under climate change, Biodiversity and Conservation, 22, 2, (483), (2013).
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- Matheus Souza Lima-Ribeiro, David Nogués-Bravo, Levi Carina Terribile, Persaram Batra and José Alexandre Felizola Diniz-Filho, Climate and humans set the place and time of Proboscidean extinction in late Quaternary of South America, Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 392, (546), (2013).
- Natália M. Tôrres, Paulo De Marco, Thiago Santos, Leandro Silveira, Anah T. de Almeida Jácomo and José A. F. Diniz‐Filho, Can species distribution modelling provide estimates of population densities? A case study with jaguars in the Neotropics, Diversity and Distributions, 18, 6, (615-627), (2012).
- Nan Lu, Chen-Xi Jia, Huw Lloyd and Yue-Hua Sun, Species-specific habitat fragmentation assessment, considering the ecological niche requirements and dispersal capability, Biological Conservation, 10.1016/j.biocon.2012.04.004, 152, (102-109), (2012).
- David Braidwood and Christopher J. Ellis, Bioclimatic equilibrium for lichen distributions on disjunct continental landmasses, Botany, 90, 12, (1316), (2012).
- Mariana Munguía, Carsten Rahbek, Thiago F. Rangel, Jose Alexandre F. Diniz-Filho, Miguel B. Araújo and Nicolas Mouquet, Equilibrium of Global Amphibian Species Distributions with Climate, PLoS ONE, 7, 4, (e34420), (2012).
- Andrea L. Smith, Nina Hewitt, Nicole Klenk, Dawn R. Bazely, Norman Yan, Stepan Wood, Irene Henriques, James I. MacLellan and Carla Lipsig-Mummé, Effects of climate change on the distribution of invasive alien species in Canada: a knowledge synthesis of range change projections in a warming world, Environmental Reviews, 10.1139/a11-020, 20, 1, (1-16), (2012).
- Guilherme de Oliveira, Miguel Bastos Araújo, Thiago Fernado Rangel, Diogo Alagador and José Alexandre Felizola Diniz-Filho, Conserving the Brazilian semiarid (Caatinga) biome under climate change, Biodiversity and Conservation, 10.1007/s10531-012-0346-7, 21, 11, (2913-2926), (2012).
- Damien A. Fordham, H. Resit Akçakaya, Miguel B. Araújo, Jane Elith, David A. Keith, Richard Pearson, Tony D. Auld, Camille Mellin, John W. Morgan, Tracey J. Regan, Mark Tozer, Michael J. Watts, Matthew White, Brendan A. Wintle, Colin Yates and Barry W. Brook, Plant extinction risk under climate change: are forecast range shifts alone a good indicator of species vulnerability to global warming?, Global Change Biology, 18, 4, (1357-1371), (2012).
- Diego Ruiz‐Labourdette, David Nogués‐Bravo, Helios Sáinz Ollero, María F. Schmitz and Francisco D. Pineda, Forest composition in Mediterranean mountains is projected to shift along the entire elevational gradient under climate change, Journal of Biogeography, 39, 1, (162-176), (2011).
- J. Berton C. Harris, Damien A. Fordham, Patricia A. Mooney, Lynn P. Pedler, Miguel B. Araújo, David C. Paton, Michael G. Stead, Michael J. Watts, H. Reşit Akçakaya and Barry W. Brook, Managing the long‐term persistence of a rare cockatoo under climate change, Journal of Applied Ecology, 49, 4, (785-794), (2012).
- Samuel D. Veloz, John W. Williams, Jessica L. Blois, Feng He, Bette Otto‐Bliesner and Zhengyu Liu, No‐analog climates and shifting realized niches during the late quaternary: implications for 21st‐century predictions by species distribution models, Global Change Biology, 18, 5, (1698-1713), (2012).
- Morgane Barbet‐Massin, Wilfried Thuiller and Frédéric Jiguet, The fate of European breeding birds under climate, land‐use and dispersal scenarios, Global Change Biology, 18, 3, (881-890), (2011).
- Raquel A. Garcia, Neil D. Burgess, Mar Cabeza, Carsten Rahbek and Miguel B. Araújo, Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for African vertebrates, Global Change Biology, 18, 4, (1253-1269), (2011).
- Rosane G. Collevatti, Levi Carina Terribile, Matheus S. Lima‐Ribeiro, João C. Nabout, Guilherme Oliveira, Thiago F. Rangel, Suelen G. Rabelo and Jose A. F. Diniz‐Filho, A coupled phylogeographical and species distribution modelling approach recovers the demographical history of a Neotropical seasonally dry forest tree species, Molecular Ecology, 21, 23, (5845-5863), (2012).
- Hong Qian and Robert E. Ricklefs, Disentangling the effects of geographic distance and environmental dissimilarity on global patterns of species turnover, Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 3, (341-351), (2011).
- Miguel B. Araújo and A. Townsend Peterson, Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modeling, Ecology, 93, 7, (1527-1539), (2012).
- Çağan H. Şekercioğlu, Richard B. Primack and Janice Wormworth, The effects of climate change on tropical birds, Biological Conservation, 148, 1, (1), (2012).
- Marcos Callisto, Adriano Sanches Melo, Darcilio Fernandes Baptista, José Francisco Gonçalves Junior, Manuel Augusto Simões Graça and Fernanda Gaudio Augusto, Future ecological studies of Brazilian headwater streams under global-changes, Acta Limnologica Brasiliensia, 24, 3, (293), (2012).
- Emilio Civantos, Wilfried Thuiller, Luigi Maiorano, Antoine Guisan and Miguel B. Araújo, Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services in Europe: The Case of Pest Control by Vertebrates, BioScience, 62, 7, (658), (2012).
- Matteo Convertino, Paul Welle, Rafael Muñoz-Carpena, Gregory A. Kiker, Ma.L. Chu-Agor, Richard A. Fischer and Igor Linkov, Epistemic uncertainty in predicting shorebird biogeography affected by sea-level rise, Ecological Modelling, 240, (1), (2012).
- Andrej Ceglar and Lučka Kajfež-Bogataj, Simulation of maize yield in current and changed climatic conditions: Addressing modelling uncertainties and the importance of bias correction in climate model simulations, European Journal of Agronomy, 10.1016/j.eja.2011.11.005, 37, 1, (83-95), (2012).
- César Capinha, Pedro Anastácio and José António Tenedório, Predicting the impact of climate change on the invasive decapods of the Iberian inland waters: an assessment of reliability, Biological Invasions, 14, 8, (1737), (2012).
- Tongli Wang, Elizabeth M. Campbell, Gregory A. O’Neill and Sally N. Aitken, Projecting future distributions of ecosystem climate niches: Uncertainties and management applications, Forest Ecology and Management, 279, (128), (2012).
- Jens-Christian Svenning, Camilla Fløjgaard, Katharine A. Marske, David Nógues-Bravo and Signe Normand, Applications of species distribution modeling to paleobiology, Quaternary Science Reviews, 30, 21-22, (2930), (2011).
- Xiaojun Kou, Qin Li, Shirong Liu and Mike B. Gravenor, Quantifying Species' Range Shifts in Relation to Climate Change: A Case Study of Abies spp. in China, PLoS ONE, 6, 8, (e23115), (2011).
- Joaquim Trindade-Filho, Rafael Dias Loyola and Brock Fenton, Performance and Consistency of Indicator Groups in Two Biodiversity Hotspots, PLoS ONE, 6, 5, (e19746), (2011).
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- H.K. Nenzén and M.B. Araújo, Choice of threshold alters projections of species range shifts under climate change, Ecological Modelling, 222, 18, (3346), (2011).
- Heini Kujala, Miguel B. Araújo, Wilfried Thuiller and Mar Cabeza, Misleading results from conventional gap analysis – Messages from the warming north, Biological Conservation, 144, 10, (2450), (2011).
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