Econometrica
Original Articles

Female Labor Supply, Human Capital, and Welfare Reform

Richard Blundell

E-mail address: r.blundell@ucl.ac.uk

University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT U.K.

Institute for Fiscal Studies, 7 Ridgmount Street, London, WC1E 7AE U.K.

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Monica Costa Dias

E-mail address: monica_d@ifs.org.uk

Institute for Fiscal Studies, 7 Ridgmount Street, London, WC1E 7AE U.K.

CEF‐UP University of Porto, Rua Dr Roberto Frias, 4200‐464 Porto, Portugal

IZA

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Costas Meghir

E-mail address: c.meghir@yale.edu

Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06520 U.S.A.

Institute for Fiscal Studies, 7 Ridgmount Street, London, WC1E 7AE U.K.

IZA

NBER

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Jonathan Shaw

E-mail address: j.shaw@ifs.org.uk

Institute for Fiscal Studies, 7 Ridgmount Street, London, WC1E 7AE U.K.

University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT U.K.

We thank four anonymous referees and the Editor for helpful comments. This research has greatly benefited from discussions with Joe Altonji, Mike Brewer, David Card, Jim Heckman, Enrico Moretti, Hamish Low, and Corina Mommaerts. We are also grateful to participants at the EEA Summer Meetings, the IZA/SOLE transatlantic meeting, the NBER TAPES conference, and seminars at Yale University, the University of Mannheim, IFS, the University of Copenhagen, U.C. Berkeley, and the DIW for their comments. This research is funded by the ESRC Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy and the NCRM node Programme Evaluation for Policy Analysis, both at the IFS. Financial support from ESRC Grant RES‐000‐23‐1524 is gratefully acknowledged. Richard Blundell would like to thank the ERC under Grant MicroConLab. Costas Meghir thanks the Cowles Foundation and the ISPS at Yale and the ESRC under the Professorial Fellowship RES‐051‐27‐0204 for funding. The usual disclaimer applies. Search for more papers by this author
First published: 19 September 2016
Cited by: 18
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Abstract

We estimate a dynamic model of employment, human capital accumulation—including education, and savings for women in the United Kingdom, exploiting tax and benefit reforms, and use it to analyze the effects of welfare policy. We find substantial elasticities for labor supply and particularly for lone mothers. Returns to experience, which are important in determining the longer‐term effects of policy, increase with education, but experience mainly accumulates when in full‐time employment. Tax credits are welfare improving in the U.K., increase lone‐mother labor supply and marginally reduce educational attainment, but the employment effects do not extend beyond the period of eligibility. Marginal increases in tax credits improve welfare more than equally costly increases in income support or tax cuts.

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