A review of strategic planning for dynamic supply chains: Preparing for uncertainty using scenarios

This is a book review of Strategic Planning for Dynamic Supply Chains: Preparing for Uncertainty Using Scenarios by Shardul S. Phadnis, Yossi Sheffi, and Chris Caplice (Cham, Switzerland, 226 p, 2022). The book covers three case studies, presented as vignettes, which illustrate three unique applications of a seven ‐ step approach to scenario planning, modeled after the Intuitive Logics School. The book is aimed at executives and business leaders, as well as academics, and scenario planning practitioners. This review discusses the unique aspects the scenario team brings to the strategic space, the strengths of their pragmatic process, and key elements in practice that are often left out of the larger academic scholarship.


| INTRODUCTION
Phadnis and colleagues present a series of scenario planning case studies across three industries aimed at "formulating supply chain strategies" (Phadnis et al., 2022, p. vii). Their work largely took place within the first decade of the 21st century; However, insights shared throughout prove to have continuous benefits for present-day organizations, at all levels. Scenario planning workshops drove executives to take comprehensive, holistic views of their business environment, including historical governance, micro-to macropolitical shifts, climate action, product life cycles, and nontrivially, executive myopia, to name just a few. The application of scenario planning techniques to supply chain management (SCM) is little explored in the scenario planning scholarship (Phadnis & Darkow, 2021) and even less in SCM literature, which brings a niche value to the book. The accessible language of the text and compact storytelling for each case study make this book valuable to both practitioners and academia.

| SCM
The book is a contrast to many others that focus on supply chain strategy from an academic perspective, such as Chopra (2018) and Lysons & Farrington (2020). The book is more practicefocused and further supports an approach to building resilience which has a similar ethos to Sheffi (2007

| SCENARIO PLANNING APPLICATIONS
The book's authors emphasize a little-discussed, yet intuitive and vital element in scenario planning leadership-Trust. "Our experience suggests that gaining initial confidence arises from empathetic listening and astute questioning. Empathetic listening to show a willingness to take time to understand the concerns of the client.
Astute questioning to gently challenge the assumptions of the manager, to allow him/her to better articulate their concerns. This approach means a role reversal for the scenario practitioner" (Phadnis et al., 2022(Phadnis et al., , p. 1021. They recognize three touchpoints in the process where trust can be built to maximize chances of successpreworkshop introductions with the lead executive/employee, during the workshop with participants (who may change throughout), and at the end, when insights need to be internalized at an organizational level so they align with future actions. Establishing trust between the client and facilitators may seem a self-evident truth, but without it, an intervention can become moot, if allowed to progress at all. It is due to the weight of importance that it should be standard to include a narrative, even if brief, on the trust factor in any scenario planning process.
The case studies appear to present a practice-oriented approach (Bowman & MacKay, 2020), utilizing scenario planning as a strategic activity, as opposed to prioritizing it as a tool (Bradfield et al., 2005;Grant, 2003;Porter, 1985;Spee & Jarzabkowski, 2009  Chermack , 2011Chermack & Lynham, 2002), for example, freely move between the two concepts for both the actions and the artifacts.
The MIT CTL team favors the intuitive logics school (ILS) of scenario planning, as championed by Pierre Wack (1985aWack ( , 1985b,  (1991,1993,1995,2004), Kees Van der Heijden et al. (1997), and George Wright (Wright & Cairns, 2011;Wright et al., 2009Wright et al., , 2008. Their scenario planning workshops used largely qualitative methods for gathering qualitative data, though their ILS techniques differed in some ways from other leading practitioners. Altering scenario planning approaches to fit the unique goals of the organization and the immediate needs of workshop attendees is one of the pragmatic strengths of the method, regularly discussed in the literature (Lindgren & Bandhold, 2009;Ringland, 1998;Schoemaker, 1995).
The qualitative nature of an ILS method allows for modifications that account for any number of unique factors presented during a workshop. The MIT CTL team's key modifications are reviewed in the following sections.

| Techniques
The MIT CTL team followed a standardized, seven-step ILS approach.  Gordon, 1994aGordon, , 1994b. The team justified their use of quantitative methods as a heuristic for determining capabilities value (Hoppy Brew), variation and implications (Medford), and desirability (Future Freight Flow). An example is also given in Chapter 4, which illustrates a simple averaged voting system to help determine the impact of individual driving forces. For the largest case study (Future Freight Flow), the team also created context-rich, quantitatively based artifacts such as charts of global trends projected into the future to accompany each scenario. Using select quantitative methods such as voting, weighting, and correlational analysis can help facilitators maintain the qualitative feelings, emotions, and politics involved with the participants, while transforming their perceptions of the process through "the introduction of (seemingly) objective materiality" (Bowman & MacKay, 2020

| Human capital factors
Arguably, the one factor that is discussed at length throughout the Scenario planning is a cognitively laborious task, and potentially more so for those unfamiliar with the method. The greater the problem size, the more factors and driving forces must be evaluated, weighted, and causally linked, the greater the cognitive burden (Ram & Montibeller, 2013). Cognitive Load Theory posits that working memory is finite and when exceeded, learning becomes impaired (Sweller, 1988  The more evidence we collect about facilitation, the better we could potentially understand their impact on the process, artifacts, and the strategic actions advanced from such interventions. planning workshops, thereby providing the authors with hands-on evidence of learning. One client showed changes in evaluations on key factors through a series of matched surveys (i.e., longitudinal data) that spanned before, during, and after the workshops. One client completed a series of post-hoc surveys which supported the conclusion that their preworkshop assumptions remained guiding and salient factors in their strategic perspective, indicating the intervention had less of an impact than with the other two. By providing evidence of outcomes, even by proxy, the book helps advance a much-needed dialog in scenario planning and strategy as a whole;

| CONCLUSION
Which is that there are a number of expressions an organization can use to illustrate impact, and interventions can impact at different levels.
Chapter 9 shares not only the scenarios developed from each case study-something often absent in the literature due to creative ownership or intellectual property rights of the client organizationbut external, supplementary sources that provide context-rich outputs from their largest scenario planning project, aimed at national levels of application (Future Freight Flow).
This book provides detailed insights to both ILS scenario planning applications and contemporary SCM. The questions posited throughout the text provide valuable tools for advancing teaching pedagogy as well as practitioner learning.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This review and affiliated work were not funded by any internal or external funding bodies. There are no data associated with the review.