Spatial and seasonal variation of livestock depredation by large carnivores in the Pamir Mountains of northern Pakistan

The livestock depredation by large carnivores is a main cause for increasing human–wildlife conflicts (HWCs) and is one of the prime challenges for carnivore's conservation and a major economic concern to livestock‐dependent communities around wildlife habitats. Thus, understanding the patterns and trends of livestock depredation may contribute to better understanding of the mechanisms underlying HWCs and to mitigating HWCs. HWCs characterized by livestock depredation by large carnivores are prevalent in northern Pakistan, but the underlying mechanisms are poorly investigated. This study was conducted in 2018 in the Khunjerab Valley and Shimshal Valley of the Pamir region to evaluate the spatial and seasonal variation and impact of livestock depredation by carnivores. Data were collected on livestock depredation and its associated economic impact through semi‐structured interviews of randomly selected households in the two valleys. The livestock in Shimshal Valley was more susceptible to large carnivores’ depredation (233 heads per year) than in Khunjerab Valley (125 heads per year). This spatial variation in livestock depredation was reflective of the difference in the socio‐economic conditions and physical locations between the two valleys. More livestock depredation took place in winter in Khunjerab Valley, while more livestock depredation occurred in summer in Shimshal Valley, mainly because of different grazing systems in the two valleys. The total economic loss incurred due to large carnivores’ depredation was US$ 76,063 in Shimshal Valley, as compared to US$ 34,175 in Khunjerab Valley in 2018. The average economic loss per household was US$ 950.8, accounting for nearly 30% of the household annual income in Shimshal Valley in 2018. A higher proportion of participants in Shimshal Valley (83%) in comparison to Khunjerab Valley (69%) expressed a negative attitude towards wild carnivores. The study concludes that Shimshal Valley, remotely located and having comparatively marginal income opportunities, was more reliant on agro‐pastoralism and thus more vulnerable to the economic repercussions of livestock depredation by wild carnivores. Thus, such measures as improvement in road transportation and livestock management are in urgent need to better manage HWCs in Shimshal Valley.

Wildlife conservation and livelihood nexus is best demonstrated at the intersection of human-wildlife conflict (HWCs) and co-existence. The rise in human population and shrinking wildlife habitat are causing increasing HWCs and leading to negative interactions between humans and wildlife (Sengupta et al., 2020;Xu et al., 2020). Such conflicts have seen intensification at global level (Jacobsen & Linnell, 2016;Naha et al., 2018). HWCs have negative implications for local communities and include loss of livestock, property damage, injuries, and human casualties (Sultan et al., 2022). HWCs can also have negative repercussions for wildlife, and include retaliatory killings, injuries to wildlife and gradual habitat degradation (Khorozyan et al., 2017;Su et al., 2022). HWCs have even resulted in the localized extinction of certain species (Long et al., 2020). HWCs have thus become one of the major challenges to biodiversity conservation and posed serious threats to the pastoral livelihoods across the world.
Wild carnivores, especially large carnivores, are a major group of wildlife that have been involved in HWCs around the world . The rise in HWCs involving large carnivores is because of ever-increasing competition for food, feed, and space at varying level worldwide (Gastineau et al., 2019;Rashid et al., 2020b). Large carnivores specialize in predation of wild ungulates, but can also depredate unfenced domestic livestock (Qamar et al., 2010;Treves & Karanth, 2003), especially when the population of their wild prey species decreases (Mori et al., 2016;Sharma et al., 2019). A decline in wild prey species is mainly due to over-hunting at a fourteen times higher rate than carnivores (Darimont et al., 2015). Moreover, the livestock encroachment into the wildlife habitat displaces wild prey species due to grazing competition and consequently influences the whole local wildlife communities (Salvatori et al., 2022). HWCs have also been attributed to a rise in successful conservation programs, causing a higher concentration of carnivore populations in some regions (Debata et al., 2017;Sapkota et al., 2014).
HWCs involving large carnivores are common along national park boundaries and in areas where large carnivores are found in close proximity to human settlements (Treves et al., 2006;Estes et al., 2012) and have imposed strong influence on pastoralists' livelihoods due to their depredation of livestock (Kansky et al., 2016;Baynham-Herd et al., 2019). Such depredation provokes negative human attitudes towards wild carnivores, especially large carnivores (Bagchi et al., 2020;Spencer et al., 2020). A previous study reveals that 13 Snow leopards (Panthera uncia) were retaliatory killed by local residents from 2011 to 2018 in the northern Pakistan, although the unreported number of retaliatory killings of Snow leopards and wolves could be higher (Rashid et al., 2020a).
The wild carnivores have due role in maintaining biological diversity (O'Bryan et al., 2018;Ritchie et al., 2012) and provision of ecosystem services (Eeden et al., 2018;Li et al., 2020). In addition, these large carnivores generate economic opportunities through ecotourism (Kuiper et al., 2022). However, HWCs, mainly due to depredation of livestock by large carnivores, have become a prominent threat to the survival of large carnivores. To conserve the threatened large carnivores, it is necessary to help livestock owners and mobilize them for conservation (Brink et al., 2021;Mohammadi et al., 2021;Rashid et al., 2019). Additionally, preventing livestock owners from viewing the imperiled large carnivores as pests, securing their livelihoods, and enlisting them as partners in conservation are all crucial to saving imperiled large carnivores (Alexander et al., 2021;Beck et al., 2021;Jackson & Lama, 2016). It is worth mentioning that livestock insurance schemes have been employed for mitigating the HWCs at local scale in northern Pakistan (Hussain, 2000). Previous studies in nearby countries have revealed that predator-proof livestock corrals, homestay tourism, guarding/watch dogs, skilled herders, community conservation, education of local community, legal management, local management, and land management/zoning were employed for HWC management at local scale (Mijiddorj et al., 2018;Namgail et al., 2016;Shehzad et al., 2012;Sultan et al., 2022).
Snow leopard and wolves (Canis lupus) are the primary large carnivores that depredate on local pastoralists' livestock and are thus attributable to HWCs in the high mountain regions of the northern Pakistan (Rosen et al., 2012). The land use/land cover changes there as represented by the increasing human settlements and decreasing rangeland per capita and per livestock means encroachment onto wildlife habitats and more severe competition between human and wildlife (Qasim et al., 2023;Rashid et al., 2021). HWCs characterized by depredation of livestock by large carnivores are prevalent in the Pamir mountainous regions, but the characteristics and mechanisms underlying HWCs are poorly understood, despite its huge hindering potential in large carnivore's conservation. Assessment of the status and patterns of livestock depredation by large carnivores could provide crucial information for understanding the mechanisms and thus for their management (Kissui et al., 2019). This study was thus conducted in 2018 in the Pamir mountainous region of the northern Pakistan to: (a) investigate HWCs in the Khunjerab and Shimshal valleys in relation to their socio-economic structures; (b) evaluate the spatial and seasonal trends in livestock depredation in the Khunjerab and Shimshal valleys; (c) estimate the economic losses to the communities incurred by wild carnivores' depredation of livestock; and (d) suggest measures to manage HWCs in the Khunjerab and Shimshal valleys.  (Khan et al., 2012;Khan et al., 2016). The study area has an arid climate with annual precipitation varying between 200 and 900 mm, predominantly received as snow during winter. Temperature remains below the freezing point from October onwards in winter and rising up to 27 C in May (Ali et al., 2017). In the study area, upstream glaciers provide water downstream to the Khunjerab and Shimshal rivers. The livestock owners in Khunjerab and Shimshal Valley graze their herds in the respective upland pastures of KNP having traditional grazing rights. Importantly, they have a communal/tribal grazing system on rotation basis in their own traditional upland grazing areas. The high pastures (ranging between 2439 m and 4880 m above sea level) are source of forage to domestic livestock and wild herbivores (Khan et al., 2011;Rashid et al. 2020a;Shafiq & Ali, 1998). The important wild herbivores in the study area include Blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur) and Siberian ibex (Capra sibirica), while the notable carnivores include Snow leopards, Wolves, Brown bears (Ursus arctos isabellinus), Lynx (Felis lynx), and Tibetan red fox (Vulpes vulpes montana). Other mammals including Golden marmots (Marmota caudata aurea) and Cape hares (Lepus capensis) also inhabit the study region (Baig et al., 2022;Knudsen, 1999;Shafiq & Ali, 1998;Wang et al., 2012).

| Shimshal Valley
Shimshal Valley has four permanent villages, that is, Aminabad, Farmanabad, Khizarabad, and Central Shimshal (Hameed et al., 2022). Shimshal Valley is bounded by KNP and has a community-based organization called Shimshal Nature Trust (SNT), which manages the natural resources including pastures, rangelands, and wildlife (including trophy hunting) in its four permanent villages.
The Shimshal Valley traditionally occupies much larger area (3/4) of the study area than the Khunjerab Valley does. Additionally, the upland pastures of Shimshal Valley occupy a wide region in different directions. Thus, the transhumance in Shimshal Valley prevails in different directions from the main villages ( Figure 2). The Lupghar uplands are located in the west of Shimshal permanent settlements, while the Ghujerab is located in the north, the Yazghil uplands in the east direction. Furthermore, the Shimshal pass and related uplands are located in the north east of the Shimshal permanent villages.
This valley has a unique Yak grazing system, where in summer, the Yaks are herded in the Shimshal pass, while in winter, the yaks are carried further north from the uplands of Shimshal pass towards Shirilek lowlands (located on Chinese border). In the winter lowlands, experienced herders (only male) from different villages guard the herds turn by turn for 3-4 months. While in Summer upland pasture all the livestock are herded (including male and female herders) in different upland pastures most of the time. During early autumn (crop harvesting season), animals from all villages are brought to one pasture, and herded by women belonging to different villages (Cook & Butz, 2018;Iturrizaga, 1997). Due to lack of accessibility, the residents of Shimshal Valley are mainly dependent on agro-pastoralism.

| Khunjerab Valley
The Khunjerab Villagers Organization (KVO) manages the natural resources in all seven villages within the Khunjerab Valley through community conservancies. The seven villages, mainly located in the buffer zone, include Ghalapan, Morkhun, Jamalabad, Gircha, Sartiz, Nazimabad, and Sost (Rashid et al., 2020a). This valley occupies traditionally a much smaller area for pasturing, which is around 1 /4 of the study region. The transhumance is in single direction. The uplands of this valley are in the core zone of the national park. The transhumance is declining during the past decades due to presence of core zone of the national park. The main Karakorum international highway is also passing through this portion of the national park. This portion of the national park is having a sizable presence of the national park staff and Khunjerab Security Force staff (KSF). Due to diversified income sources and easy accessibility because of the main highway, this portion is comparatively well developed.
The Khunjerab Valley is a big tourist attraction due to its high elevation, glaciers, unique biodiversity, and the Pakistan-China border. The tourists from the country and abroad are attracted to this region especially during summer season. The border is open for trade except during winter months (from 1st December to 1st April) (Wolf, 2020). During winter the tourism and trade activities in this region are negligible partly due to border closure and heavy snowfall in this region (Qasim & Rahman, 2022). F I G U R E 1 Map of the study area, the KVO's area (green) and Shimshal area (brown-red color) in the buffer zone of Khunjerab National Park (blue), shown in the enlarged map.

| Data collection
Data were collected through semi-structured questionnaires and focus group discussions (FGDs) in 2018. A total of 80 (out of 230) and 106 (out of 317) households were interviewed according to a recursively refined interview guide in Shimshal and Khunjerab Valleys, respectively. The interview guide comprised of probing techniques, which elicited data on the structure and composition of livestock, HWCs, depredated livestock, and economic losses incurred at the community level in both valleys. As per the cultural values of the study area, the more experienced older household members were mostly interviewed (Khurshid et al., 2022).
As an excellent vehicle for data collection in conservation sciences (Nyumba et al., 2018;Rashid et al, 2020a), four FGDs (two FGDs in each valley) were conducted in the two valleys to collect information to estimate the monetary values of livestock and to decipher attitudes to depredation of their livestock within the two communities. The collected data were statistically analyzed with independent t-tests.
The grazing systems in the study area.

| Herd dynamics and livestock holdings
Livestock herds were mainly composed of sheep, goats, yaks, and cows in the two valleys (  (Figure 3).

| Species-specific depredation
Species-wise livestock depredation data showed that 233 livestock heads were depredated in Shimshal Valley and 125 in Khunjerab Valley in 2018 (Table 2). Carnivores mainly depredated goats and yak, followed by sheep and cows. The pattern of livestock depredation by carnivores varied between the two valleys.
The average number of yaks and goats depredated by carnivores per household was larger in Shimshal Valley than in Khunjerab Valley (two sample t-tests, p < .01 for both cases), while no such differences were found for depredation of sheep (p = .092) or cows (p = .130) between the two valleys ( Cohen's d indicates the effect size ranging from small (< 0.2), medium to large (> 0.8).
F I G U R E 3 Percentages of households suffering from livestock depredation in Shimshal and Khunjerab Valleys in 2018.
more yaks were depredated in Shimshal than in Khunjerab Valley (two sample t-test, p < .01), and more cows were depredated in Khunjerab than in Shimshal Valley (two sample t-test, p = .012) ( Table 3).

| Economic impact of livestock depredation in Shimshal and Khunjerab valleys
The

| Seasonal trends of depredation and predators involved in depredation
During the past decade (2008-2018), majority of livestock were depredated by Snow leopards (84%), followed by wolves (14%) (Figure 3). The stray dogs were found to prey on livestock in Khunjerab Valley only. During the same period, in Khunjerab Valley, more domestic animals were depredated in winter (65.6%) than in summer (34.4%) (Figure 4a). In contrast, in Shimshal Valley, more depredation happened in summer (68.1%) than in winter (31.9%) (Figure 4b). Yak depredation was higher in winter than in summer.

| Attitudes towards wild carnivores
In response to enquiries, 9 out of 13 FGD participants in Khunjerab Valley wanted the number of Snow Cohen's d indicates the effect size ranging from small (d < 0.2), medium to large (d > 0.8).

| Herd dynamics and livestock holdings
The communities of Khunjerab and Shimshal valleys relied heavily on livestock for food security and livelihood, but the Shimshal communities were more dependent on livestock and had larger herd size than the Khunjerab communities. Seasonal transhumance with sizable herds has been shown to be the main stay of livelihood in the mountainous Pamir region of the northern Pakistan (Butz, 1996;Butz, 2002;Butz & Cook, 2011). After the completion of the Karakorum Highway (KKH) in 1978, the socio-economic conditions had changed considerably in this region and are more profound along the main arterial KKH (Kreutzmann, 2004a). The valleys in proximity to KKH such as the Khunjerab Valley are at a more advanced stage of development (Duncan et al., 2006) and have shifted to diversified income sources (Rahman et al., 2008). The Shimshal Valley covers a very large area away from the main road that can be accessed through hours of laborious travel by jeep (Butz & Cook, 2016). The Shimshal Valley lacks diverse economic opportunities and has been reported to have undergone few changes in traditional herding practices in the past five decades (Khan & Rahman, 2009;Kreutzmann, 2004b); hence, livestock-oriented livelihood is considered a lifeline for them.

| Spatio-seasonal trends and impact of HWCs
The spatial variation in livestock depredation is reflective of the difference in the socio-economic conditions. The relatively remote Shimshal Valley had larger herds of livestock, and was hence more prone to depredation of livestock than the more accessible Khunjerab Valley. Thus, HWCs, characterized by livestock depredation by large carnivores, was more prevalent in Shimshal than in Khunjerab Valley. This finding concurs with research findings in India, showing more intense HWCs in regions where communities heavily rely on livestock (Bagchi & Mishra, 2006). Similarly, a study by Din et al. (2019) in the Pamir region of the three countries (Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Tajikistan) reveals a spatio-temporal variation in livestock depredation. In addition, the uplands pastures in Khunjerab are well protected by the wildlife department in sharp contrast to Shimshal Valley (Rashid et al., 2020a), and hence, much less illegal hunting of wild ungulates occurs, resulting in more prey species available for wild carnivores and less depredation of livestock by carnivores in Khunjerab Valley. In terms of the number of animals depredated, the key depredated livestocks in both valleys were sheep and goats, followed by yaks. Other studies in similar regions have shown comparable trends (Dai et al., 2019). The depredation of cows was low in both valleys, mainly because cows were usually kept near households yearround to fulfill their household milking needs. Hence, fewer cows were moved to the high-elevation areas for grazing in summer season. Higher depredation of yaks was attributable to the fact that yaks extensively graze without herder tendence and remain exposed to depredation at high-elevation pastures within KNP throughout the year, despite ban on grazing there (Abidi-Habib & Lawrence, 2007).
Majority of the small ruminant's depredation occurred in summer in Shimshal Valley, when these animals are exposed to depredation due to lack of proper corrals. The upland pastures used by livestock in summer overlap the habitats of carnivores and ungulates (Rigg et al., 2011), resulting in increased chances of depredation. Studies in Nepal and Bhutan have reported even higher depredation rates at higher pastures during summer (Chetri et al., 2019;Jamtsho & Katel, 2019). In Khunjerab valley, however, the movement of livestock to the uplands during summer season has decreased overtime due to its better accessibility and affordable transportation of intensive feed resources, leading to reduced dependence on extensive transhumance and increased income from tourism (Rashid et al., 2020a). Furthermore, the livestock depredation in Khunjerab Valley was higher in winter season because this region is converted to pure wildlife habitat during winter with negligible presence of tourists and trade (Qasim & Rahman, 2022), and yaks still graze on the high-elevation pastures in winter without tendence in Khunjerab Valley. While in summer, the reduced depredation of livestock in Khunjerab valley is mainly because the wild carnivores remains away from the main grazing area due to heavy trade-and tourism-related traffic and presence of wildlife staff in open grazing. Similar findings have been revealed by previous studies in Annapurna (Nepal) and Tibet (China), where livestock depredation was the highest in winter season (Farrington & Tsering, 2019;Oli et al., 1994). Similarly, a study in the Misgar valley (lying in the northwest of KVO) revealed higher depredation during winter season (Bano et al., 2021).
Furthermore, the increased depredation by Snow leopards in winter season in Khunjerab may be attributed to increased density of Snow leopards in winter in the proximity of the component villages and the absence of proper winter livestock corals. Studies in other similar regions reveal that Snow leopard density is inversely proportional to the human presence, pointing out towards increasing Snow leopard density in winter season (Pal et al., 2022).
Stray dogs were found to depredate livestock exclusively in Khunjerab Valley. This valley has been facing huge tourist pressure due to easy accessibility and the increased demand for meat products and other amenities (Qasim & Rahman, 2022;Rashid et al., 2020a). Thus, the number of stray dogs has increased with increasing butcher shops in this valley. Previous studies have revealed that the stray dogs are closely associated with the butcher shops, where they feed on the flesh, bone remnants, or offal of the slaughtered livestock (Khan et al., 2020;Moudgil et al., 2021). Interestingly, the number of stray dogs has increased alarmingly in Pakistan to around 3 million, despite many stray dog controlling programs in the country (Murawat, 2022). Prior studies in the Snow leopard habitat of Nepal and China have also pointed out the depredation due to stray dogs Chetri et al., 2019;Li et al., 2013). Stray dogs are not present in Shimshal Valley possibly due to its remoteness and isolation.
The encroachment onto the suitable habitats of large carnivores by human settlements and agricultural activities has enhanced HWCs in many places (Dar et al., 2022). We did not document the possible contribution of human encroachment to variation in HWCs in this study, but a parallel study did reveal that expansion of human settlements and agricultural activities resulted in closer proximity to and even overlap with Snow leopard habitats in this area (Rashid et al., 2021). How human encroachment contribute to spatio-seasonal variation in HWCs in this area warrants further study.

| Economic impact of and attitude to depredation in the Shimshal and Khunjerab Valleys
Due to higher depredation rate, the Shimshal communities are suffering more economic losses than the Khunjerab communities. Although fewer yaks were depredated than other livestock, their higher market price resulted in higher economic losses, particularly in Shimshal Valley. The economic loss from yak depredation was more than the combined depredation loss of all the other livestock. A study in Nepal similarly concludes that the economic loss due to yak depredation is much higher than that incurred by the depredation of other livestock .
The relatively higher negative perception about Snow leopards in Shimshal Valley than in Khunjerab Valley is also attributable to the higher economic losses in Shimshal Valley. Although Snow leopards were reported to depredate on more livestock than wolves, all participants in FGDs in both valleys wanted to eliminate wolves, but not Snow leopards. The absolutely negative attitude towards wolves is possibly attributable to the fact that wolves have been considered as pests and dangerous animals in many cultures and religions (Mijiddorj et al., 2018;Kusi et al., 2019). On the other hand, more awareness raising efforts of Snow leopard conservation may have resulted in increased recognition of Snow leopard as a protected animal. Previous studies in similar regions have shown that communities have stronger negative attitudes to wolves than to Snow leopards (Suryawanshi et al., 2013;Bhatia et al., 2016) due to their depredation of livestock and also occasional killing of people (Dressel et al., 2014;Kansky et al., 2014).

| CONCLUSION
The communities in Shimshal and Khunjerab Valleys are still dependent on transhumance and extensive livestock production for their livelihood, and the predation of livestock by large carnivores are prevalent in these two valleys. However, the Shimshal communities have suffered more livestock loss and consequently more economic income loss, which accounts for nearly 30% of the household's average income, than Khunjerab communities, mainly because Shimshal Valley is more remotely located with difficult access and thus more reliant on livestock. More depredation of livestock happens in winter in Khunjerab Valley mainly due to absence of proper protective corrals and limited possibility of intensive feeding. While relatively more depredation occurs during summer in Shimshal Valley due to more possibility of dispersed grazing and larger pasturing area. The predation of livestock by carnivores is becoming the main reason for increasing HWCs, reflected by the overall negative attitude of the local residents towards wolves and Snow leopards. HWCs could be reduced by providing alternative livelihood opportunities like tourism, improvement of transportation, and more protective corrals availability. Livestock management strategies and practice need to be improved (e.g., tendence and livestock housing). Such measures are particularly needed for Shimshal valley on a priority basis to ensure sustainable co-existence and survival of natural ecosystem.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The study was supported by a grant of China Scholarship Council (CSC#: 201639180003) to the first author and the Interdisciplinary Research Funds of Beijing Normal University. Due acknowledgments are for the support provided by University of Swat (Pakistan), CAPRIL (Center for Applied Policy Research in Livestock), University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Lahore (Pakistan). We also thank Caroline Ward (University of York) for her constructive comments on an earlier version of this article.

CONFLICT OF INTEREST STATEMENT
The authors declare they have no conflicts of interest.

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
The data sets of the study are available from the corresponding author upon request.

ETHICAL STATEMENT
Participants in the interviews were informed of the objective and context of the study, the use of the data to be collected, and the anonymity to be guaranteed. All authors have given their consent for the publication of this article.