Marine recreational fishing and the implications of climate change

Marine recreational fishing is popular globally and benefits coastal economies and people's well‐being. For some species, it represents a large component of fish land‐ ings. Climate change is anticipated to affect recreational fishing in many ways, cre‐ ating opportunities and challenges. Rising temperatures or changes in storms and waves are expected to impact the availability of fish to recreational fishers, through changes in recruitment, growth and survival. Shifts in distribution are also expected, affecting the location that target species can be caught. Climate change also threat‐ ens the safety of fishing. Opportunities may be reduced owing to rougher conditions, and costs may be incurred if gear is lost or damaged in bad weather. However, not all effects are expected to be negative. Where weather conditions change favour‐ ably, participation rates could increase, and desirable species may become available in new areas. Drawing on examples from the UK and Australia, we synthesize existing knowledge to develop a conceptual model of climate‐driven factors that could impact marine recreational fisheries, in terms of operations, participation and motivation. We uncover the complex pathways of drivers that underpin the recreational sector. Climate changes may have global implications on the behaviour of recreational fish‐ ers and on catches and local economies.

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recognizing as early as 1997 that climate change could impact this activity (IPCC, 1997).
Around the world, it has been estimated that around 121 million people a year participate in recreational fishing, although participation varies greatly across countries (Cisneros-Montemaier & Sumala, 2010). With such high participation and significant catches in some places (Radford et al., 2018), climate change impacts on the sector could have wide implications for ecosystems, the economy and more generally on people's well-being.
The UK and Australia represent two countries with widely differing participation rates. Around a million people in the United Kingdom (1.8% of all adults) participate in recreational sea fishing . In the UK, an average of 6.8 million days of sea angling per year was recorded in 2015-2017 with shore fishing being the most common (Arkenford, 2017), but with more fish caught from boats (Armstrong et al., 2013). Sea angling is economically and socially important in England with resident sea anglers spending £1.23 billion on the sport, equivalent to £831 million direct spend (excluding tax and imports), and supporting 10,400 full-time equivalent jobs and almost £360 million of gross value added (Roberts et al., 2017).
More than 5 million Australians participate in recreational fishing (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2010), with the highest fishing participation rates in the Northern Territory (31.6%), Tasmania (29.3%) and Western Australia (28.5%;Henry & Lyell, 2003). The sector supports around 90,000 Australian jobs, and each recreational fisher is estimated to spend approximately $1,000 per annum on their fishing activities, including tackle, boats, travel and accommodation (Queensland Department of Primary Industries, 2019).
For commercial fisheries, climate change impacts are predicted to mainly result from changes to catch potential (Garrett, Buckley, Brown, & Townhill, 2015b), changing weather conditions and storm and flood frequency (e.g. Sainsbury et al., 2018). Climate change is anticipated to affect the socio-ecological systems of marine recreational fisheries in similar ways, but with some differences owing to the different motivation for participating in commercial and recreational fishing; pleasure and consumption being two of the main drivers for recreational fishing (ICES, 2018a). In northern Australia (Queensland), the strongest motivations for recreational fishing were for rest and recreation, to enjoy nature and to be outdoors (Ormsby, 2004). In southern Australia, both catch and non-catch aspects of the fishing experience are motivators. Importantly, recreational fishing can be satisfying regardless of whether any fish are caught (Beardmore, Haider, Hunt, & Arlinghaus, 2011;Fedler & Ditton, 1994). Even though resource-related aspects are not unimportant or incidental, there are other drivers and motivations of recreational fishers (Fijlink & Lyell, 2010).

This paper uses the United Kingdom and Australia as examples to
consider the different aspects of climate change that might positively or negatively affect the marine recreational fishing sector globally, those who participate in the activity and businesses that rely on it for income. The two countries have ongoing surveys of recreational fishing. The UK has a lot of data are available on participation, catches and expenditure, and Australia has extensive research about climate change. In both the UK and Australia, there are coastal regions that are considered "hot spots" of climate warming (Hobday & Pecl, 2014). The latter is relevant since adaptive responses to climate change are greatest where the climate has changed the most (Poloczanska et al., 2013).
The responses already witnessed in these hotspot areas  and the anticipated future responses, provide examples of impacts and adaptation strategies relevant to other regions of the world.
The aims of this paper were to identify the different aspects of climate change that may have potential effects on marine recreational fishing and to discuss the implications for fisher behaviour and adaptation. The paper draws on literature from global studies on past and future climate change, fisheries and recreational fishing, with a focus on the well-studied UK and Australia, to demonstrate how recreational fishers may be affected.

| CLIMATE IMPAC T PATHWAYS
There are many potential effects of climate change in fish species considered important for recreational fisheries. Such effects are manifested via a range of interlinked pathways (shown in the conceptual model in Figure 1). Physical changes in the marine environment, such as temperature rise (in Figure 1 listed in the Climate box), are expected to cause various changes in the fish targeted by recreational fishers. These include impacts on adult production, recruitment, growth and survival (Dutil & Brander, 2003;Rätz & Lloret, fish and of baitfish (box labelled Natural resources). This in turn affects the size and species (e.g. Last et al., 2011;Sunday et al., 2015) available to fishers, and the fishing effort required (box labelled Fishing Catches).
Safety at sea or on shore may be affected by adverse weather, and recreational fishing may become a less desirable activity (box labelled Fishing operations). In addition, catchability of fish may be affected if the marine conditions change, and for example, turbidity, current or wave action increases (Garrett et al., 2015b). Fishing could become more costly if gear is lost or damaged (Costs box). Costs will also be affected if recreational fishers have to travel further to fish for their preferred species, if these become locally unavailable or the weather conditions or infrastructure no longer promote recreational fishing in that area. Fishers who use boats will be affected differently to those who fish from the shore or dive.
The many different potential impacts and changes in recreational fisheries could lead to changes in fisher motivation and behaviour, and subsequent participation levels, as the rewards of fishing change (box labelled Participation & motivation). Further, more active management of recreational fishing may be required in some instances, particularly where recreational catches need to be explicitly considered in stock management Radford et al., 2018).
Arguably, resources can be best managed if the response of a system can be predicted (Szuwalski & Hollowed, 2016), and so understanding how fish availability and catchability will change, and the likely responses of recreational fishers, is essential in ensuring that effective fisheries management is put in place under a changing climate.

| DIS TRIBUTION S HIF TS
The spatial range of a marine species is strongly influenced by their environment, and any changes in the environmental conditions may result in a redistribution of fish (Hollowed et al., 2013;Pecl et al., 2017) for which there is already ample empirical evidence (e.g. Last et al., 2011;Sunday et al., 2015). As climate change endures, changes in distribution will likely continue or even be exacerbated. The species location shift is predominantly poleward , with, overall, a northerly shift in the temperate northern hemisphere (Jones, Dye, Pinnegar, Warren, & Cheung, 2012;Montero-Serra, Edwards, & Genner, 2015;Perry, Low, Ellis, & Reynolds, 2005) and a southerly shift in the southern hemisphere. On average, marine species are shifting by 72 km a decade, however, some shifts are much faster (Poloczanska et al., 2013 Table 2). Recreational fishers in Australia also harvest non-fish species, predominantly lobsters and abalone, but also squid and cuttlefish, blue swimmer crabs (Portunus pelagicus, Portunidae) and mud crabs (Scylla spp.).

F I G U R E 1
The pathways by which each aspect of marine recreational fishing can be affected by climate change, from the climate drivers, to changes in natural resources, catches, fishing operations, costs and fisher behaviour About 41% of the total recreational fishing effort occurs in coastal waters and only around 4% in offshore waters (Henry & Lyle, 2003).
Climate-induced changes in distribution may impact the potential for recreational fishers to target their traditionally caught species (Tables 1 and 2).

| United Kingdom
Changing sea temperatures have caused some species to increase in numbers around the UK and some to decrease. In the north-east Atlantic, between 1980 and 2008, some species with a more cool water affinity have reduced in abundance. This included species of importance for recreational fishing such as Atlantic cod, whiting, thornback ray (Raja clavate, Rajidae), common skate (Dipturus batis, Rajidae) and spurdog (Squalus acanthias, Squalidae; Simpson et al., 2011;Sguotti et al., 2016). In the future, these cold-adapted species are expected to shift poleward and follow the colder conditions and their range around the UK is likely to reduce (Pinnegar, Garrett, Simpson, Engelhard, & Kooij, 2017). Modelled future species distributions of important recreational fish, such as haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus, Gadidae), Atlantic cod, common sole (Solea solea, Soleidae), lemon sole (Microstomus kitt, Pleuronectidae), whiting, thornback ray and common skate, suggest all of these species will shift poleward by the end of the century to habitats more suitable (Jones et al., 2013(Jones et al., , 2012. The top two recreational species in the UK (cod and mackerel) have been the focus of several studies on climate change and fishing.
Atlantic mackerel has recently expanded in range further north around northern Europe. There has been an increase in numbers in the northern North Sea (van der Kooij et al., 2016a), and large quantities are now caught around Iceland and Norway (Berge et al., 2015).
Cod has been found to be significantly impacted by climate change by multiple studies; for example, a significant northern shift in North Sea cod stocks has been observed as temperature has increased in recent decades (Engelhard, Righton, & Pinnegar, 2014). Additionally, the complete collapse of Celtic and Irish Sea cod stocks has been predicted by 2,100, but increases are predicted in north Norway (Drinkwater, 2005). These data suggest that recreational anglers in Britain will struggle to catch cod in the future as the effects of climate change become more pronounced. Moreover, growth rates decrease and fewer fish are observed when sea temperatures rise (Dutil & Brander, 2003;Rätz & Lloret, 2003), exacerbating the possible reduction in the availability of large cod to recreational fishers due to climate change.
Conversely, warm-adapted species may be more available to recreational fishers than they were in the last century because of recent warming. Overall, the majority of the seas around the UK have a higher abundance of warm-affinity fish with past warming with regional variations (Simpson et al., 2011). If these trends continue, there may be a higher abundance of fish overall for recreational fishers, but not necessarily the traditionally caught species.
Interannual fluctuations in sea bass are frequently considered to be caused by fluctuations in sea temperature, and the species is expected to expand further north around the UK with climate change TA B L E 1 The total weight of the top ten species caught by total weight by British marine recreational fishers calculated from a 2012 survey (Armstrong et al., 2013)  TA B L E 2 The total weight of the top ten species caught by total weight by Australian marine recreational fishers (Henry & Lyell, 2003) Family or species  . Anglers targeting sea bass may benefit from climate change in this case, or more anglers may turn to sea bass fishing. However, there has been an increase in commercial and recreational fishing in recent years, and sea bass stocks around the UK have declined over the past decade due to a combination of fishing pressure and weak recruitment (ICES, 2017(ICES, , 2018b. This emphasizes that fish population responses to climate change are not easy to predict and are very dependent upon other factors such as fishing pressure.

| Australia
In Australia, several studies have estimated the sensitivity and vulnerability of the top fisheries species to climate change (Caputi et al., 2015;Creighton et al., 2011;Fulton et al., 2018;Pecl et al., 2014Pecl et al., , 2011Welch et al., 2014), many of which are also recreationally fished species. Combined information from these studies is shown in Table 2.
In Australia, at least 195 marine species have undergone a change in distribution since 2003, including 67 fish and 58 invertebrates, many of which are recreationally fished (Pecl, unpub. data).
Most shifts have been recorded in south-east Australia and for species of a temperate affinity (e.g. Last et al., 2011;Robinson et al., 2015;Sunday et al., 2015), although this pattern may possibly reflect the greater research effort in this region (). Additionally, the dependence of many tropical fish species on coral may hinder their ability to expand (Feary et al., 2014;Munday, Jones, Pratchett, & Williams, 2008).

| Limitations to movement
Some species and stocks may be able to shift their distribution as modelling may suggest, but others that are at the warm limit of their range may simply decline. Movement of marine fish species spatially (e.g. Perry et al., 2005;Simpson et al., 2011)  As with inland fish, which can be considered "canaries in a coal mine" with regard to detecting changes in the environment (Lynch et al., 2016), changes in assemblages of sensitive marine fish species may be some of the first climate change impacts that are seen. For certain species, the amount of suitable habitat could become even less with time, leading to additional issues such as increased mortality (Hixon & Jones, 2005) and decreased growth rates (Lorenzen & Enberg, 2002) owing to the greater density of individuals being squeezed into smaller areas of suitable habitat. Moreover, due to the rapid velocity of climate change (Loarie et al., 2009), many species will not be able to adapt to the conditions within the timeframe available and may therefore ultimately perish.

| Arrival of novel species
Climate velocity trajectories, that is the speed and direction of temperature isotherms moving over the seascape, outline the shortest pathways that shifting species may follow to track their preferred thermal niches as global climate warms and is emerging as a consistent predictor for range shifts in the ocean (Pinsky, Worm, Fogarty, Sarmiento, & Levin, 2013;Poloczanska et al., 2013;Burrows et al., 2014). However, climate sink areas where conditions locally disappear might potentially block the movement of shifting species. "Outof-range" fish observations in sink areas could represent the "arrival" stage of range-extending species that are prevented from shifting further (Fogarty, Burrows, Pecl, Robinson, & Poloczanska, 2016

| Depth changes
An analysis of climate change-induced depth changes in North Sea fisheries by Dulvy et al. (2008) found significant depth increases for several key recreational species, such as plaice and whiting, with species moving 5-15 m deeper per decade. Since angling from the shore is the most common form of UK recreational fishing (Armstrong et al., 2013), fishers' access to these species could be greatly reduced, if the increase in depth preference means that these species will be located further offshore. Conversely, sole and pout (Trisopterus luscus, Gadidae) were found to move to shallower waters (between 6 and 7 m per decade; Dulvy et al., 2008;Engelhard, Pinnegar, Kell, & Rijnsdorp, 2011), which may increase access to these species closer to the shore. For sole in particular, the shallowing trend seems to be related to fewer extremely cold winters in recent years. Prior to this, sole typically migrated offshore each winter to seek out deeper, less cold, waters. Now sole are able to persist in shallow waters all year round (Engelhard et al., 2011).
The movement of species to either deeper or shallower waters could induce an increase in offshore angling as anglers attempt to target species they have historically caught. Alternatively, anglers may choose to change their target species to those moving inshore, such as sole, increasing the fishing pressure on these species. Of course, there are limits to how deep a species can go, particularly in the shallow shelf seas of north-west Europe, and many moved into deeper waters in the 1980s, allowing little scope to move even deeper (Rutterford et al., 2015).

| Global changes
Research in other parts of the world shows similar changes in distribution and habitat restriction, with implications for anglers.
Mirroring changes seen in Europe, over the last two decades of the 20th century, the composition of nearshore reef fish in the Southern California Bight, has shifted from northern-to southern-affinity species (Holbrook, Schmitt, & Stephens, 1997). There was also a 15%-25% reduction biodiversity overall. This was attributed to declining recruitment correlated with the biomass of microzooplankton in the  (Szekeres et al., 2016). In contrast, modelling has found that cold snaps in offshore areas have decreased in recent decades (Schlegel, Oliver, Wernberg, & Smit, 2017). In the UK in the winter of 2018, large numbers of invertebrates including lobsters (Homarus Gammarus, Nephropidae) and crabs washed up on the North Sea coast after a very cold period, and this event was widely reported in the media (e.g. Guardian, 2018).
In the western English Channel, there was an interannual increase in mean temperatures of over 2°C between 19112°C between and 20072°C between (Genner et al., 2010. A decline was found in the larger body size classes in all 30 species examined, including common recreational species like cod, pollack and ray species. Lower numbers of larger size classes could cause smaller, younger fish to be at greater risk of being caught which may reduce populations in the long term (Lewin et al., 2018). A reduced chance of catching highly desired large individuals may cause recreational fishers to lose interest in the sport, although research in the United States has suggested that this is not always the case (McClenachan, 2009).

| Weather
Weather Daily minimum winter temperatures are also projected to increase across the country (Jenkins et al., 2010). These increases in temperature may make recreational fishing more attractive as a hobby throughout the year. On very hot days, fishers may choose to fish during the evening or night, rather than stop fishing completely, as found to be the case in a study in the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States (Dundas & von Haewfen, 2015).
Rainfall changes could also affect fishing participation. In New England and the North Atlantic United States, participation is expected to decrease with increasing rainfall, but overall participation in shoreline recreational fishing may increase with climate change (Dundas & von Haewfen, 2015). Rainfall projections vary around the UK, and so fishers in some parts of the country will be affected more than others. The biggest change in winter precipitation is a 33% increase along the west of the UK. However, in the Scottish Highlands, rainfall may decrease (Jenkins et al., 2010), potentially making recreational fishing more appealing.
In southern Australia, fishers will be affected by rising sea levels and sea surface temperatures. Fishers who fish from the shore will be particularly impacted by near-coastal sea surface temperature rise of typically around 0.4-1.0°C by 2030 and around 2-4°C by 2090 (CSIRO, 2015). Rainfall in this region is projected to decrease in the spring with the winter declines potentially as high as 50% by 2090.
Changes in summer and autumn rainfall cannot be reliably projected, but there is medium confidence in a decrease (CSIRO, 2015). Models project heatwaves, on land and in the ocean, to become more frequent, hotter and last longer across Australia by the end of the 21st century (Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al., 2016). Again, fishers may choose to fish in the evening or at night, rather than stop fishing altogether (Dundas & von Haewfen, 2015).

| Storms and waves
Climate projections on storms and waves are complex and do not paint a clear picture globally (Church et al., 2013); however since There has been an increase in extreme weather events since the 1980s in Australia. It is likely that the intensity of tropical cyclones will increase (e.g. Abbs, 2012;Walsh et al., 2016). Climate models also suggest that cyclones are moving south affecting the southern parts of the country (Sharmila & Walsh, 2018). Although investigation into determining which climate mechanisms control variability of Australia's wave climate is continuing (Hemer, Church, & Hunter, 2007), it is evident that because storms are occurring in an environment with higher sea levels the storm surge impacts can be much worse.
Changes in storm conditions and sea level rise are expected to increase the risk of damage to commercial fishing infrastructure such as harbours, landing sites and jetties, and boats themselves in certain areas (Garrett et al., 2015b). This is likely to be the same for infrastructure on which recreational fishers rely, such as piers, harbour walls and sea defences, and marinas for recreational boats.
The number of days at sea may be reduced in commercial fisheries if storms become more frequent or intense and conditions are unsafe (Garrett et al., 2015b), and the same bad weather conditions are likely to impact the recreational sector. If weather conditions affect either safety or comfort, both in boats and on shore, then this is likely to reduce the number of suitable fishing days per year.
There is also potential that rougher conditions could cause more gear to be lost, causing higher replacement and insurance costs for fishers, and increasing ghost fishing and marine litter. Conversely, in areas where wave heights may decrease (as projected for the north of the UK), conditions for fishing from boats are likely to improve.
Models have been used to predict the location choice of commercial fishing vessels based on operating costs (e.g. Giardin et al., 2017) and also predict when a vessel owner might choose to enter or leave the industry altogether (Tidd, Hutton, Kell, & Padda, 2011).
Comparable methods have not yet been applied to recreational fisheries and modelling fisher motivations. However, a model developed to explore decision-making in the recreational squid fishery of Palma Bay in the Balearic Islands, Spain, found that poor sea conditions caused a marked decrease in the number of recreational boats operating (Cabanellas-Reboredo et al., 2014). Despite unexplained variability in the model, the probability that a boat departed from port decreased, on average, to 0.5 at a wave height of 0.8 m. The probability that a boat would go out fishing was negligible if the wave height was >1.5 m.
In commercial fisheries, an anticipated effect of any increase in storm or waves is an increase in water turbidity which could reduce the catchability of fish by hooks and lines (Garrett et al., 2015b). Marine recreational anglers will likely face the same challenges, as fish which rely on sight over smell are less able to find bait. Experiments on Atlantic cod have shown that they reduce their activity at intermediate turbidities (i.e. they are more active in high and low turbidity waters) and so take longer to find prey (Meager & Batty, 2007), and this may indeed also be the case for finding baited hooks.

| Sea level change
Projections show that 70% of the world's coasts are likely to experience a rise in sea level in the coming century, with regional differences (Church et al., 2013). Sea levels are expected to be between 12 and 76 cm higher by 2095 around the UK (Jenkins et al., 2010). Sea level rise may narrow beaches towards cliffs or sea defences (i.e. coastal squeeze) or cover rocky areas (Baglee, Haworth, & Anastasi, 2012), thus reducing the number or suitability of fishing sites. If people's preferred or favourite fishing sites become less unavailable or less suitable, or if people have to travel further to find good sites, this again could reduce the desirability of recreational fishing.

| COS TS , PARTI CIPATI ON AND MOTIVATI ON
Recreational fishers observe changes in the environment (van Putten et al., 2017) and so are in a good position to respond to those changes and adapt their behaviour, whether they consider them as climate change related or not. While many natural resource managers and governments are unsure of how to respond to climatic changes (Miller et al., 2018), individuals in fast-changing regions of the world are already adjusting their behaviour to accommodate these . Recreational fishers generally have four behavioural substitution strategies (temporal, species, location and activity) to deal with changing environmental or management conditions (Sutton, 2006). Fishers may fish less, fish more, some may stop fishing altogether, while others will adapt their behaviour to fish differently.
These changes are illustrated in Figure 2, showing how various climate change effects could impact fishers' motivation and behavioural choices. As a consequence, some regions may experience an increase in marine recreational fishing activity, while others a decrease, and many will see changes relating to the main species targeted, types of gear used and modes of fishing.  Putten et al., 2017). For many recreational fishers, stopping fishing is not an option and the authors suggest that to help people who are less likely, or slower, to adapt, they could be linked up with those who are faster to adopt adaptation strategies through fora or networks and therefore share knowledge and experiences. Angling organizations and magazines may have an important role to play in facilitating information sharing opportunities to promote adaptation.

| Autonomous adaptation
In response to climate change, off the east coast of Tasmania, several "bottom-up" or autonomous adaptations are already occurring, that is, changes without any government or management intervention . Increasing availability of several desirable species has led to a proliferation of social media pages and online fora dedicated to targeting the species and has increased fisher interac- Since the increase in yellowtail kingfish numbers in southern Australia, local charter operators in Tasmania have started F I G U R E 2 Four different types of response that recreational fishers may take as climate change affects their fishing operation advertising for fishing trips . The poleward range extension of yellowtail kingfish (Champion, Hobday, Tracey, et al., 2018a;Robinson et al., 2015) means that fishers and managers will need to adapt to these changes in future. Marine resource users require information relevant to their activities at decision-making timescales in order to adapt effectively. For coastal regions with changing currents, temporal habitat persistence (e.g. months per year) could be an important metric for climate change adaptation because it provides fishery-relevant information that socially and economically may equate to shifts in recreational fishing opportunity (Champion, Hobday, Zhang, Pecl, & Tracey, 2018b). When communicated as a measure of "fishing opportunity," future predictions of increased habitat persistence may support sustained investment from fishers, such as the purchase of gear or licences.

| CON CLUS IONS
Climate change will continue to cause complex changes to occur in the marine socio-ecological environment, with consequences for marine recreational fishing. In the UK, some shifts in important recreational species are currently being observed. In Australia, fishers and tackle shops are already beginning to adapt to environmental change. In some communities, fishing-related businesses are able to take advantage of some changes that have led to desirable species moving into an area and becoming available for recreational fishing. In some locations, autonomous adaptation has taken place.
In other locations, directed assistance from governments, angling member organizations or marine managers might be needed to encourage fishers to target other species of fish or target them in different ways, or with different gear. Not all climate-driven changes will occur at once, and changes in species availability are likely to be gradual in many cases, with recreational fishers making incremental changes in behaviour. However, changing storm patterns and sea level rise could cause significant changes to coastlines or operating practices in short periods of time. Such changes would require faster, potentially more substantial and proactive responses by fishers and communities.
Globally, shifts in the distribution and migration of recreational fish species are expected, but management implications will vary for different situations. Species distribution shifts, changes in migration patterns and changing abundances could cause or aggravate competition for marine resources and lead to sectoral tensions between the marine recreational fishing and commercial fishing sectors. This will require careful management to ensure that the catches of both sectors are taken into account in stock management, and that the needs of participants in both sectors are considered.
Recreational fishing is often excluded from climate change assessments on fish and fisheries, and future research should include consideration of combined catches and any implications for recreational fishers. This includes ecological, but also social and economic studies, as recreational fishing has a large part to play in well-being and in contributing to coastal economies. Applied research could be focused on how to enable recreational fishers to adapt to changes in species availability, such as the use of different gears, how best to promote new locations and whether fishing for specific species should be encouraged or discouraged. Some management measures could be very unpopular, and finding the best ways to encourage voluntary cooperation and minimise non-compliance of recreational fishers should be a priority (Mackay, Jennings, Putten, Sibly, & Yamazaki, 2018). In many cases, recreational fishers have decades of knowledge of how fish species, size and seasonality have changed in their local area, and research which captures this local knowledge would be very valuable (e.g. Azzurro et al., 2019). Similarly, ongoing monitoring to capture future changes can help scientists understand climate effects and how to best manage them (2019).
There are clearly recreational fishing opportunities in regions where charismatic novel target species are expanding or shifting their range. In some cases, marine managers or communities could help facilitate the realization of these opportunities. There is evidence that in some cases, the fishers themselves (and fishingrelated businesses) have naturally altered their activities and autonomously adapted to the fishing opportunities that have presented themselves . Examples from Australia in particular have shown that recreational fishers are resilient and adaptive and can take advantage of some changing conditions and new species.
Some local economies could be big winners from climate change if they can take advantage of the increased high-value tourism opportunities which sport fishing offers. However, taking advantage of opportunities should be managed carefully to avoid the potential of over-exploitation. Especially since the exact recreational catches are often not recorded or monitored, consideration of the recreational catch in the Total Allowable Catch estimates is essential. Only if the autonomous and assisted adaptive behaviours of recreational fishers are monitored and considered as part of a marine socio-ecological system, will they continue to be able to benefit from this activity and ensure sustainable exploitation of the marine environment at the same time.

ACK N OWLED G EM ENTS
This work was funded through Department for Environment,